ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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JaxGator
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2741 Postby JaxGator » Sat Oct 01, 2016 10:36 am

northjaxpro wrote:
chris_fit wrote:I was going to post something along the lines of why is this place so dead today, the GFS is still basically right off the FL Coast, and many models still have the NW bend ESE of FL, and Matthew is still chugging W with a hint of a S component. I don't think any threats to FL have decreased, yet. Mr. Norcross said it well, proceed with caution.


Totally agree with you. There is too much uncertainty past five days for anyone to sound the all-clear.


Agree with y'all as well. Imo sometimes, the models don't have a good grasp of the ridge this season due to how strong its been this year. Sure it should weaken briefly as forecast and let the hurricane make the turn but after that, uncertain.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2742 Postby TJRE » Sat Oct 01, 2016 10:41 am

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2743 Postby JaxGator » Sat Oct 01, 2016 10:42 am

In addition, forecasting intensity is still a new frontier. It became a monster before our eyes despite some odds but the potential was there for sometime.
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Floyd-1999, Frances-2004, Jeanne-2004, Fay-2008, Beryl-2012, Debby-2012, Colin-2016, Hermine-2016, Julia-2016, Matthew-2016, Irma-2017, Elsa-2021, Idalia-2023, Debby-2024, Helene-2024.


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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2744 Postby crimi481 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 10:47 am

Here in S.W. Florida, todays forecast brings in land storms to west coast. Past several days storms stayed inland. The ridge seems to be strengthening?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2745 Postby Weatherboy1 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 10:57 am

Still watching, still waiting here in SoFla. Definitely haven't seen the turn start yet and it's going to have to be a doozy to meet some of those model forecasts that are calling for a more easterly track over Cuba/Bahamas
Last edited by Weatherboy1 on Sat Oct 01, 2016 10:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2746 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Oct 01, 2016 10:57 am

Surprisingly, I actually don't see any hints of eyewall replacement on the METOP-B pass from a little over an hour ago.

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2747 Postby Dean4Storms » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:08 am

This is diving more SW, if this keeps up today we have a problem Miami!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2748 Postby Sanibel » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:09 am

Is it an accurate statement to say there's no comfort in Florida if you consider the average degree of shift in the models at this range?


Would climatology favor the front in October and therefore the east shift?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2749 Postby ObsessedMiami » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:11 am

Publix in Miami called my son into work this morning. Expecting brisk supplies sales.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2750 Postby tropicwatch » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:16 am

At this point I don't see what is going to pull Matthew north. The showers east of the northern Bahama's are moving west, no northward movement with the showers in the Gulf of Mexico and even just north of Cuba. I must be missing something.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2751 Postby crimi481 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:18 am

I see no movement to the north. Only to the w.s.w. Could be just a wobble, but..... its troubling for folks that are working on the models
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2752 Postby RL3AO » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:19 am

We have the Joaquin and Hermine test. Models say the turn starts now.

Six hours later... Says the turn starts now

12 hours later... Now...?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2753 Postby TimeZone » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:19 am

1900hurricane wrote:Surprisingly, I actually don't see any hints of eyewall replacement on the METOP-B pass from a little over an hour ago.

[]http://i.imgur.com/Lzp2sZZ.jpg[]


Yikes. What happened to it overnight?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2754 Postby wicked_wx_watcher » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:20 am

Along upper gulf coast, our mets' conversations regarding Matthew have increased as it has moved more westward & increased in intensity so quickly.

What factors, if any, could change & steer this storm more into GOM? Residents are becoming a little more concerned since Matthew appears not to follow the models' timelines, intensity, etc.

Thx!!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2755 Postby JtSmarts » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:25 am

Another NC landfall on 12z GFS. Stay vigilant my friends.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2756 Postby Alyono » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:26 am

may be stationary now
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2757 Postby centuryv58 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:28 am

Alyono wrote:may be stationary now


On its way to NYC again?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2758 Postby emeraldislenc » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:29 am

The NC landfall is scary for me.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2759 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:29 am

The turn north should start by 00z tonight.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2760 Postby tropicwatch » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:33 am

Alyono wrote:may be stationary now


Actually last couple of frames a little more southward again.

[url]https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/cgi-bin/tc_home.cgi?YEAR=2016&MO=Oct&BASIN=ATL&STORM_NAME=14L.MATTHEW&SENSOR=&PROD=vis1km&PHOT=yes&ARCHIVE=Animate&TYPE=ssmi&NAV=tc&DISPLAY=Active&CURRENT=20161001.1615.goes-13.vis.1km.14L.MATTHEW.125kts.944mb.13.4N.73.1W.100pc.jpg&DIR=/tcweb/dynamic/products/tc16/ATL/14L.MATTHEW/ssmi/vis1km&MOSAIC_SCALE=20%&ACTIVES=16-ATL-14L.MATTHEW,16-CPAC-19E.ULIKA,16-WPAC-21W.CHABA,16-ATL-60L.NONAME,16-WPAC-99W.INVEST,&LOAD_CLOCK=no[/url]
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