ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

[quote="northjaxpro"]







You can see the very western extent (nose of the ridge) extends to the western edge of Cuba. If the trough in the GOM does not dig deeper to help erode that ridge further, it is possible the ridge may hold and keep Matthew moving a bit farther west just a bit longer

[otterlyspicey]

I am still so bummed we didn't get to see Matthew at his incredible peak last night on daytime visible satellite. That would've been incredible! Guess we have to wait another nine years and hope it's daylight when cat 5 is reached.

[NotoSans]

Pressure have risen to 947 mb as per the latest center dropsonde. Expect continued weakening within the next day or so.

[xironman]

Latest recon pass also shows what appears to be a S component to Matthew's Westerly movement.

You can't be sure that each vortex report caught the center of the eye, so it's difficult to determine storm movement over a short period of time using recon fixes. Satellite isn't indicating any south of west movement any longer.

Thank you sir. I was under the thought that why look at Satellite when we have recon out there - but you have a valid point.

Only 2 VDMs this mission.

[Ken711]

Steering


[im bg]http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm5.GIF[/img]




You can see the very western extent (nose of the ridge) extends to the western edge of Cuba. If the trough in the GOM does not did deeper to help erode that ridge further, it is possible the ridge may hold and keep Matthew moving a bit farther west just a bit longer

Are most of the models expecting a weakening and retreat of that ridge?

[Kazmit]

I am still so bummed we didn't get to see Matthew at his incredible peak last night on daytime visible satellite. That would've been incredible! Guess we have to wait another nine years and hope it's daylight when cat 5 is reached.

It has a chance of restrengthening and becoming a Cat 5 again once the shear dies off, near Jamaica/Cuba. The waters are very warm around there, and the environment is even better than the one that enabled Matt to reach Cat 5 status last night.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Feeling much better here in NC. US streak could possibly go to 11 years. Wow! I know things could change but our "luck" is incredible it seems. Everyone have a good day. Will be praying for Caribbean folks.

[GCANE]

Radar from last night's recon

[NDG]

There will be a US territory that will be hit by a Major Hurricane, GTMO, does it count?

[marionstorm]

Guantanamo Bay is held by perpetual lease and isn't technically part of the USA.

[tolakram]

visible loop

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=14&lon=-73&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=7&mapcolor=gray&map=county

[tolakram]

water vapor loop

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=29&lon=-80&info=wv&zoom=4&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=wv1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=gray

[hipshot]

visible loop

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=14&lon=-73&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=7&mapcolor=gray&map=county

Does that trough hanging out over you folks show any signs of movement west or north?

[SouthFLTropics]

It's going to be very important to watch the evolution of the feature ENE of the islands to see what, if any, impact it will have on the Bermuda High. Right now based on water vapor the high looks to be expanding west.

[tolakram]

visible loop

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=14&lon=-73&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=7&mapcolor=gray&map=county

Does that trough hanging out over you folks show any signs of movement west or north?

The cutoff low? It's been moving around east then west but not north yet. It's supposed to start clearing out north at the same time Matthew is expected to move north.

[tolakram]

Answering a post from the model thread on west motion.

The floater is tracking and it appears west is continuing but not as much of a north component as the tracker assumed.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_1km_center_relative_vis_floater&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

[NDG]

[JaxGator]

It's going to be very important to watch the evolution of the feature ENE of the islands to see what, if any, impact it will have on the Bermuda High. Right now based on water vapor the high looks to be expanding west.

Interesting. I know yesterday Matthew's outflow extended into the Atlantic (another example of its sheer power and strength) but is the low close enough to be sheared by the hurricane in the short-term?

[NDG]

It almost looks like that during the past couple of hours it went back to a more South than due West heading but it could be just a wobble.

[1900hurricane]

[im g]http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ndgarcia/2014-06/MaracaiboMax_zpsit2sr2lx.gif[/img]

Looks like we may finally be getting some hints of an outer eyewall beginning to develop on radar.