ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[bob rulz]

A bit surprised that the NHC maintained 155mph at 8am. I know they're waiting on recon, but it seems to be clearly weaker than before. It's a shame it reached its peak during night-time. Then again, it's not as if maintaining the intensity is affecting anybody right at this particular moment.

[GCANE]

Looks like a hot tower fired on the north eyewall.
Still seeing a good radial pattern of gravity waves on the cirrus.

[NotoSans]

Pressure remains pretty low at 944 mb as per the latest dropsonde, but I guess the wind speed has weakened some due to the ongoing ERC.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

A bit surprised that the NHC maintained 155mph at 8am. I know they're waiting on recon, but it seems to be clearly weaker than before. It's a shame it reached its peak during night-time. Then again, it's not as if maintaining the intensity is affecting anybody right at this particular moment.

Hate to say it but there's likely another shot at Cat 5 as the storm nears Jamaica/Cuba.

[GCANE]

Link: https://youtu.be/xZeFkL5hG0Q

[hurricanehunter69]

Staring at this water vapor loop is making me wonder if this outlier scenario could actually play out? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/comp/ceus/flash-wv.html #1) Matthew pumps up ridging; offsetting the low to mid level ridge in the western Atlantic weakening? #2) The trough in the gulf fails to materialize and or much weaker. #3) Ridging over western Mexico bridges over the gulf ?

[GCANE]

Core is still hot at 9C
Pinhole eye

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 1st day of the month at 12:29Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 13°22'N 73°06'W (13.3667N 73.1W)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,051m (10,010ft)

L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 50° to 230° (NE to SW)
M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 10 nautical miles
M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 6 nautical miles

[Ntxw]

Raw T numbers down a bit, he's weakened some since last night.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 OCT 2016 Time : 114500 UTC
Lat : 14:08:16 N Lon : 73:49:43 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.9 / 926.0mb/137.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.6 6.2 5.4

Center Temp : -52.5C Cloud Region Temp : -64.9C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

[NotoSans]

Maximum sustained winds have probably decreased to 115 knots as per the latest recon pass.

[chris_fit]

Latest recon pass also shows what appears to be a S component to Matthew's Westerly movement.

[xironman]

Maximum sustained winds have probably decreased to 115 knots as per the latest recon pass.

No sign of a north turn either.

[wxman57]

Latest recon pass also shows what appears to be a S component to Matthew's Westerly movement.

You can't be sure that each vortex report caught the center of the eye, so it's difficult to determine storm movement over a short period of time using recon fixes. Satellite isn't indicating any south of west movement any longer.

[xironman]

The winds aren't there yet for a weaker storm to feel the pull



Now if it was still cat 5

[chris_fit]

Latest recon pass also shows what appears to be a S component to Matthew's Westerly movement.

You can't be sure that each vortex report caught the center of the eye, so it's difficult to determine storm movement over a short period of time using recon fixes. Satellite isn't indicating any south of west movement any longer.

Thank you sir. I was under the thought that why look at Satellite when we have recon out there - but you have a valid point.

[Madpoodle]

Miami Storm Tracker wrote:
Good Evening everyone,

Reposting this in the hope of getting any of the Pro Mets in here opinion.

I was just on the models page to see the GFS run. It seems another slight shift west, at some point I need to make some serious choices. So if any of the Pro Mets care to give me their take it would be very much appreciated. I am at my house in Key Largo for the weekend, I am stuck deciding do I put up the shutters or not. I have the boat hanging on the Davits do I put it on the trailer and pick up everything this weekend. If for some strange reason it decides to come further west than expected, I will not be able to get back in the Keys to do anything. I guess what I am hoping to get here is your feelings as to how serious a chance this could move in here and cause severe weather. Thanks in advance for yo Professional input.

You answered your own question. If you can't get back to secure things, do it now before you leave.

[GCANE]

To me, it looks like still headed due west.
Big tell will be when it gets past 74W.

[otowntiger]

Weakening all the way to a category 2? What factors are leading you to believe such a dramatic weakening?

eyewall replacement and shear

but by tomorrow afternoon, incredibly favorable conditions are expected. I would not be the least bit surprised if we see explosive intensification starting late tomorrow and early Monday (yesterday, we only saw rapid intensification)

Well that's not good. For the sake of Jamaica, Cuba and Haiti I hope the doesn't happen.

[MGC]

Matthew's movement looks almost due west to me this morning. Matthew's satellite appearance has degraded some this morning. The NW quad of the hurricane looks to be impacted by some shear. Also, an elliptical eye was reported by recon. I can't recall such a powerful hurricane to have an elliptical eye. Key to watch will be Matthew's forward speed.....slower means a turn is more likely. Matthew should start making some northward progress later today....I doubt the track shift westward......MGC

[northjaxpro]

Steering







You can see the very western extent (nose of the ridge) extends to the western edge of Cuba. If the trough in the GOM does not did deeper, it is possible the ridge may hold and keep Matthew moving a bit farther west just a bit longer.

[northjaxpro]

Steering







You can see the very western extent (nose of the ridge) extends to the western edge of Cuba. If the trough in the GOM does not did deeper to help erode that ridge further, it is possible the ridge may hold and keep Matthew moving a bit farther west just a bit longer.