ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[sma10]

I'm definitely going to give the GFS high marks for consistency. Except for the (VERY SMALL) occasional drift, this model has produced many consecutive runs of the exact same solution, in what is supposedly a very complex synoptic setup.

The model is either LOCKED IN or insane.

[tolakram]

Making the NE turn, looks like a miss this run.

[toad strangler]

GFS has moved just enough W since 12z to lick the FL E Coast with outermost banding.

[centuryv58]

GFS has moved just enough W since 12z to lick the FL E Coast with outermost banding.

Yes, darn it.

[Alyono]

the MU breaks off a mystery low pressure system from Matthew, which weakens the ridge, allowing it to turn before reaching North Carolina

[tolakram]

If this doesn't hit the east coast it's simply a matter of luck that the lack of majors streak continues.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Real close call with the OBX, but out to sea. That slower motion prevented landfall.

That said, I'm not a fan of any model run past 168 hours.

[tarheelprogrammer]

GFS and ECMWF seem to be coming to a shaky agreement. Close approach to southeast coastline and then OTS their runs look very similar now.

[SouthFLTropics]

Too close to call. Many interesting model runs to go. Tonight's 00z have the opportunity to be EPIC!!!

[drezee]

I would basically ignore beyond 120 hours...

[HurricaneFrances04]

The 12Z Euro is much further east in the mid range than the GFS.

[toad strangler]

Making the NE turn, looks like a miss this run.

Indeed. GFS actually licks the coast from Miami to the OB's with outermost banding.

[hurricaneCW]

Models trending to sharply turn this NE as it clears SE US. Could be the right call as there's nothing to pull it back west and the ridge to its N/NE is transient. The only question is how close does it get to Florida/NC before it exits east.

Other factors include the strength and tilt of the central US trough. The stronger, further south it amplifies the greater the ridging becomes.

[centuryv58]

Making the NE turn, looks like a miss this run.

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Indeed. GFS actually licks the coast from Miami to the OB's with outermost banding.

Other indicators showing a South FL brush at the least. See spagettimodels.com to see.

[Alyono]

There is a 15-20% chance of this passing within 125 miles of South Florida within the next 7 days based upon ensembles. The ensembles are in surprisingly good agreement in terms of their spread through 168 hours.

[LarryWx]

the MU breaks off a mystery low pressure system from Matthew, which weakens the ridge, allowing it to turn before reaching North Carolina

It looks to me like the Euro does something similar. It looks like a remnant of the current Kentucky SE upper low that eventually lifts north, then east, and then maybe SE off the NE US. So, this low could very well be a player fpr the next 7-10 days!

[SapphireSea]

There is a 15-20% chance of this passing within 125 miles of South Florida within the next 7 days based upon ensembles. The ensembles are in surprisingly good agreement in terms of their spread through 168 hours.

I wonder how far it would have to be offshore for us to be in the subsidence zone of the storm and keep the major risk in FL to rip currents and erosion. I assume if it stays 120 miles east it would be a gloomy drizzly day with 20-25mph winds at most. At 200 miles I'd say it be brutally clear sunny day with periods of rainbands same maritime effects.

The actual pattern as of this and last week seems really progressive, and any stalling above 20n would favor a safe recurve? The gFS and Euro both kind of agree on this to an extent does it not?

[TimeZone]

Euro and GFS coming into agreement on this thing heading out to see after hitting Cuba.

[gatorcane]

What I am really curious about is the chance of this turning more WNW or NW once it gets past Cuba. Both the EC and UKMET show this. The next runs of these models will be very interesting.

[meriland23]

in your vague opinion, what do you think the chances will be it'll hit the US vs fish