ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Would be interesting to see if this nudges a bit south of the forecasted track as it weakens.

[GCANE]

A picture from yesterday's recon inside the eye

[xironman]

Still basically due west

[StormHunter72]

NWS Tampa

The GFS has a 50 knot upper level jet from the southwest developing
Monday night as Hurricane Matthew approaches east Cuba. The GFS
weakens the jet on Wednesday and Matthew moves into the Bahamas with
a closer offshore approach to Florida than in previous runs.
Forecast area still on subsidence side of hurricane with low rain
chances Wednesday and Thursday...a bit higher east of The Villages
to Haines City through Sebring. Models continue to vary on exact
path of Hurricane Matthew so stay tuned to later forecasts from the
National Hurricane Center and focus on the forecast cone, not the
skinny black line.

[northjaxpro]

Matthew now moving west at only 7 mph now. Usually a significant slowdown like this could be the first indication of the poleward turn coming soon. Watch this closely!!

[robbielyn]

NWS Tampa

The GFS has a 50 knot upper level jet from the southwest developing
Monday night as Hurricane Matthew approaches east Cuba. The GFS
weakens the jet on Wednesday and Matthew moves into the Bahamas with
a closer offshore approach to Florida than in previous runs.
Forecast area still on subsidence side of hurricane with low rain
chances Wednesday and Thursday...a bit higher east of The Villages
to Haines City through Sebring. Models continue to vary on exact
path of Hurricane Matthew so stay tuned to later forecasts from the
National Hurricane Center and focus on the forecast cone, not the
skinny black line.

I believe this will stay off the peninsula I really do. glad I live on west coast of Florida. less stress over this storm but I truly understand why east coasters are concern with this close call. the storm had slowed down to 7mph, its getting ready to make the turn today. I like the tampa nws forecast very much dry sunny days.

[Weatherboy1]

That ULL that has been parked over Kentucky appears to be finally moving to the N and/or NNE. There is still plenty of troughing to lead to a turn, but how much? How sharp will that turn be? How far west will Matthew be before he turns? Still a very difficult call.

[StormHunter72]

NWS Tampa

The GFS has a 50 knot upper level jet from the southwest developing
Monday night as Hurricane Matthew approaches east Cuba. The GFS
weakens the jet on Wednesday and Matthew moves into the Bahamas with
a closer offshore approach to Florida than in previous runs.
Forecast area still on subsidence side of hurricane with low rain
chances Wednesday and Thursday...a bit higher east of The Villages
to Haines City through Sebring. Models continue to vary on exact
path of Hurricane Matthew so stay tuned to later forecasts from the
National Hurricane Center and focus on the forecast cone, not the
skinny black line.

I believe this will stay off the peninsula I really do. glad I live on west coast of Florida. less stress over this storm but I truly understand why east coasters are concern with this close call. the storm had slowed down getting ready to make the turn today. I like the tampa nws direct very much.

I agree. It is still a bit unnerving after Hermine.

[Alyono]

I would not be surprised if this weakens to a cat 2 over the next 24 hours.

Then, it should quickly regain category 5 intensity before impacting either Jamaica or Haiti

[bob rulz]

Weakening all the way to a category 2? What factors are leading you to believe such a dramatic weakening?

[Alyono]

Weakening all the way to a category 2? What factors are leading you to believe such a dramatic weakening?

eyewall replacement and shear

but by tomorrow afternoon, incredibly favorable conditions are expected. I would not be the least bit surprised if we see explosive intensification starting late tomorrow and early Monday (yesterday, we only saw rapid intensification)

[Kazmit]

Weakening all the way to a category 2? What factors are leading you to believe such a dramatic weakening?

eyewall replacement and shear

but by tomorrow afternoon, incredibly favorable conditions are expected. I would not be the least bit surprised if we see explosive intensification starting late tomorrow and early Monday (yesterday, we only saw rapid intensification)

Very interesting. I don't know why the NHC doesn't expect it to strengthen much at all at that time:

After that time, the dynamical models suggest
the shear should decrease, which should allow Matthew to at least
maintain its intensity.

[NotoSans]

Extrapolated pressure of 943.6 mb from the latest recon pass, with winds of around 105 kt in the northeast quadrant.

[xironman]

105 kts this run

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Weakening all the way to a category 2? What factors are leading you to believe such a dramatic weakening?

eyewall replacement and shear

but by tomorrow afternoon, incredibly favorable conditions are expected. I would not be the least bit surprised if we see explosive intensification starting late tomorrow and early Monday (yesterday, we only saw rapid intensification)

It's interesting that the NHC appears to be putting more weight on the intensity models than the global models for Matthew's strength. The intensity models have done an incredibly poor job at predicting Matthew's power.

[Airboy]

Looks like it have move a tiny bit north of a west movment.

[got ants?]

Is the eye collapsing? Part of the eyewall replacement, northerly turn?

[Emmett_Brown]

Looks like Matt maintaining his due west motion per the recon obs. Appears to have crossed 73W at about 13.3N (just me eyeballing what looks like the location where the plane found the center on the tidbits page). http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

[CFLHurricane]

Looks like it have move a tiny bit north of a west movment.

I noticed that as well. But it's still not large enough to rule out as another wobble. We shall see soon.

[bob rulz]

Weakening all the way to a category 2? What factors are leading you to believe such a dramatic weakening?

eyewall replacement and shear

but by tomorrow afternoon, incredibly favorable conditions are expected. I would not be the least bit surprised if we see explosive intensification starting late tomorrow and early Monday (yesterday, we only saw rapid intensification)

Hmmm, well I suppose that weakening to a category 2 wouldn't necessarily be unprecedented, I just think that's forecasting a very dramatic drop. I'll admit it's been so long since we've had a hurricane like this, that I can't really recall what previous similar storms did when they reached their ERC.

Of course, I do agree that this could potentially explode again, and hurricanes are typically much larger after an ERC, too (this isn't necessarily a small storm, but it's not a large one either, though it certainly could become rather large).