ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hammy]

Matthew down to 155 as per latest advisory, citing the eye being less distinct--wouldn't it be ironic if the plane got there and found it even stronger given the thickness of the convection.

[brunota2003]

Here is the latest steering current chart. Not really seeing much to force a WNW/NW/N turn, at least not in the near term?

[SapphireSea]

Here is the latest steering current chart. Not really seeing much to force a WNW/NW/N turn, at least not in the near term?

That would be true if the steering would stay static. Thus far the forecast models are seeing is for the Bermuda High to retreat a little and the trough over Kentucky to shift a bit more east as it progresses. That will make those steering lines going N to shift east and turn the storm in the next 8-20 hours. There will be somewhat of a momentum / speed factor to turning it, of which of its effects remains to be seen. Next 36 hours will show the key and trivialize the rest of the forecast.

[GCANE]

I don't know if there may be something wrong with AMSU's Microwave Sounder, or if the data is correct, or perhaps the algorithm is off; but the analyzed core is extremely high up in the troposphere. Also, a lot cooler than recon's measurements. Here is the latest chart time stamped about 7 hrs ago.

[NotoSans]

The eye appears to be becoming cloud-filled. Not sure if the weakening is due to ERC or induced by shear.

[brunota2003]

Here is the latest steering current chart. Not really seeing much to force a WNW/NW/N turn, at least not in the near term?

That would be true if the steering would stay static. Thus far the forecast models are seeing is for the Bermuda High to retreat a little and the trough over Kentucky to shift a bit more east as it progresses. That will make those steering lines going N to shift east and turn the storm in the next 8-20 hours. There will be somewhat of a momentum / speed factor to turning it, of which of its effects remains to be seen. Next 36 hours will show the key and trivialize the rest of the forecast.

I know, but they were already showing it moving to the WNW in ~12 hours. I just don't see that (hence why I said near term). Even looking at the cirrus outflow, it isn't flattening and the storm isn't taking on a shape showing it may begin a turn soon. Now, give it 18-24 hours and we may begin to see a turn.

[GCANE]

Feeder band building on the southern half of Matthew.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... splay.html

Likely the setup IMHO for the much discussed EWRC - maybe later this afternoon.

[GCANE]

The eye appears to be becoming cloud-filled. Not sure if the weakening is due to ERC or induced by shear.

I think Matthew is starting to tilt a little.

It may be feeling the effects of the trough.

[SapphireSea]

I don't know if there may be something wrong with AMSU's Microwave Sounder, or if the data is correct, or perhaps the algorithm is off; but the analyzed core is extremely high up in the troposphere. Also, a lot cooler than recon's measurements. Here is the latest chart time stamped about 7 hrs ago.

Looks to show a positive temp anomaly which would indicate the warm core. Looks fine to me. Extends from upper all the way down to its depth on surface.

[Airboy]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 AM EDT SAT OCT 01 2016

...MATTHEW WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AND IS NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...

[SapphireSea]

The eye appears to be becoming cloud-filled. Not sure if the weakening is due to ERC or induced by shear.

I think Matthew is starting to tilt a little.

It may be feeling the effects of the trough.

Could be an illusion. I looked at some WV images and it seems the Kentucky low is beggining to lift out and the trough is washing out instead of cutting off. Could be a bit of a game changer. Need to see those next 8 hours.

[hurricanes1234]

Absolutely stunned by this storm! Even though it's weakened a bit, it's still very very powerful. Incredible that this suddenly broke the streak of no category 5s.

[GCANE]

Here is the 250mb winds.

Matt is coming up to the NW side of the anticyclone and is starting to get hit from the winds being driven by the Midwest Low and the Baja High.

I think we have seen Matt's peak intensity.

[GCANE]

Just checked 200mb vort and it does look like it is a bit south of the lower-level circulations.

[GCANE]

I thought this was a cool illustration.
Winds are at the surface and shading indicates CAPE.
To me, this looks like Matt is pulling heat out of the ocean due to WISHE (Wind Induced Surface Heat Exchange) almost entirely from its east side and then entraining it.

[hiflyer]

Interesting that the Cuban mets have it landfalling there slightly west of the NHC forecast track....

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?T ... .jpg&TB3=0

[Kazmit]

Something interesting: Matthew's the southernmost Category 5 in the Atlantic.

[GCANE]

Pretty high rain-rate for the cell to the east along 70W.
Wondering if this may contribute to tilt and / or shear due to the fact it may position the anti-cyclone more over it.

[GCANE]

Recon enroute: AF306

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/782156093078302720