ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Dean4Storms]

Wow....ECM EPS Ensembles still have close to half its members taking Mathew either over Florida or Westward into the Gulf, might be 55/45 but it is close to half.

[stormreader]

12Z NASA model 120 hours:

Well, I like that NASA Model solution, if for nothing else than it corresponds with my guess last night, that the storm would cross Cuba at a further west location than what the standard models were telling us. The storm to take a more gradual turn north and then cross mid to west Cuba and emerge near Key West.

[meriland23]

My local TV Met. at 5pm says models are shifting East. That is not what I expected the message to be. Something else going on there?

who is your local tv met and which model did he say is shifting east?

That would be Denis Phillips from WFTS,my favorite local met but sometimes......

Local Mets get their info from the NHC and the NHC gets their info from the models. Trust the source. NHC says there is a large amount of uncertainty once it heads north because the models keep flip flopping so they aren't even attempting to assume it is heading east via NOAA discussion.

[tolakram]

18Z GFS same strength but a little faster so far (further west).

[tolakram]

[stormreader]

Wow....ECM EPS Ensembles still have close to half its members taking Mathew either over Florida or Westward into the Gulf, might be 55/45 but it is close to half.

Not surprised. I think an entry into the eastern Gulf near Key West is very possible. A more north motion then would bring it right up the WEST coast of Fl. I favor that solution. But still think there's a considerable chance (perhaps 40%) of very weak steering currents in the SE GOM causing the storm to drift WNW out into the open/central Gulf.

[HurricaneFrances04]

18Z has the ridge further SW, albeit not by much.

[meriland23]

48 hours and 74w 13n

[Frank2]

The SFWMD model post (past hour) shows the spaghetti tightening up (click on Storm 14):

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots

[floridasun78]

going interest weekend ahead hope all area are safe

[floridasun78]

The SFWMD model post (past hour) shows the spaghetti tightening up (click on Storm 14):

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots

look same that someone post early todayh

[HurricaneFrances04]

Slightly west of 12Z through 66 hours, but trough coming down.

Doubt we'll see any big shifts here.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[tolakram]

[HurricaneFrances04]

18Z 72 hours:

[tolakram]

A little further west this run.

[tolakram]

[HurricaneFrances04]

GFS has been trending with a slightly stronger ridge the last 24 hours.

[tolakram]

[HurricaneFrances04]

Might go right over Andros Island.

[OntarioEggplant]

It's over Eastern Jamaica at 90h and it is looking like that trough the GFS has been insisting on over the eastern Gulf isn't going to be as strong as it has previously said.