ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Gladstone]

Hi. Eastern NC here ... haven't posted in six years. Sorry 'bout that.

Anyway just thought I'd share this tide table with y'all. Peak astronomical tides are 1st and 15th of month so at least we get a break from that should there be flooding.

http://www.moonconnection.com/moon_phas ... ndar.phtml

[Bocadude85]

Tropical Storm conditions possible now showing up in my local forecast...that's new.

Tuesday NightTropical storm conditions possible. A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 78.
WednesdayTropical storm conditions possible. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 87. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Wednesday NightA 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 77. Windy.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-80.08981710641964&lat=26.269011583082488#.V-9K7ZD3ZCk

[Sean in New Orleans]

Tropical Storm conditions possible now showing up in my local forecast...that's new.

Tuesday NightTropical storm conditions possible. A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 78.
WednesdayTropical storm conditions possible. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 87. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Wednesday NightA 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 77. Windy.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-80.08981710641964&lat=26.269011583082488#.V-9K7ZD3ZCk

Interesting..wouldn't surprise me. Past day 4 is all up kn the air.

[SouthernBreeze]

It seems to me that Matt's interaction with Columbia's peninsula the past few hrs might have caused some of his ragged appearance.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[SouthFloridawx]

I think this storm needs a little more cow bell...

[bamajammer4eva]

Freeport Bahamas Heat Index near 96 with Hurricane force winds 12z Thursday

[Evenstar]

I think this storm needs a little more cow bell...

I'd like this a thousand times over if I could.

(An aside for our patient moderators: I know. I know. Stay on topic...but dang it, the cowbell thing was funny!)

[1900hurricane]

Hard line on the W portion of the CDO seems to show increasing shear.

[wxmann_91]

Hard line on the W portion of the CDO seems to show increasing shear.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 010615.GIF

Interestingly, the upper-level flow seems to have turned from a SWly direction to a more westerly direction past few hours or so. Could be why the northwestern part of the CDO has eroded.

[Aric Dunn]

amazing.. took a few hour brake...

[Blinhart]

amazing.. took a few hour brake...

So what are your current thoughts on this system as it is right now? What are your thoughts on the models? What do you think will be going on?

I am completely clueless, because most systems that are at this position don't do what the models are suggesting, so I don't know what to think.

[Blinhart]

Looking at a lot of the different radars it looks like Matthew has decided not to get a larger eye, instead is tightening up his eye which IMHO could cause the winds to get even stronger. I think if he can get about another 100-150 miles further west, he has a chance of expanding his size and just because a Monster Super Storm.

[Aric Dunn]

first I read the 11pm discussion,, really "due west" I understand by definition what is considered "due west" however it have not been "due west" that would require a overall motion of average between "258.75 - 281.25" its been wsw since entering the carrib.

also why is there no plane out there ? really ?

if money is the issue I bet if they created a funding site .. we would never have a lapse in data.. this is stupid..

[Hammy]

After looping the closeup on the NASA page, I don't think the CDO/outflow are flattening per se, if anything it looks like both are actually expanding at the moment towards the northwest, possibly having worked some negligible amount of dry air out of the outer NW quadrant of the circulation. What's interesting to note though is the almost 'candle flickering' effect of the western eyewall, with hot tower after hot tower on the closeup loop.

[Aric Dunn]

as for forecast. its still very hard to say since the main player the upper low over the eastern gulf does not exist yet. until that happens we are left waiting. we cant even make a call past 36 hours right now till these features are in place.

[Airboy]

Can't remember I have seen as a strong hurricane like this with two very distinct separate big deep convection "blops"

[SouthernBreeze]

it is odd to me too. They almost seem to be fighting to stay separated. Whenever they get close to joining together, they get separated again

[bamajammer4eva]

Can't remember I have seen as a strong hurricane like this with two very distinct separate big deep convection "blops"

I referred to this extra area of or convection earlier and it looked like then that it was trying to merge with the main CDO. This didn't happen obviously so I guess it's just one heck of a feederband!

[SapphireSea]

as for forecast. its still very hard to say since the main player the upper low over the eastern gulf does not exist yet. until that happens we are left waiting. we cant even make a call past 36 hours right now till these features are in place.

Indeed. In fact while models are good at resolving patterns, they do not excel at small scale trajectories even when they are designed to do so (TC models). Cut offs happen from time to time, but relatively uncommon, so no expectation on that materializing. I'd hedge on TWave or Nicole solution eroding the ridge, but may be a wildcard in its own right. I'm generally very inclined to climatology, and even that by logic given from modeling is wrong. Next 36 hours will be the key to a proper forecast.

[xironman]

Not ready for a turn yet