ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ScottNAtlanta]

I believe it is the furthest South cat 5 on record just barely eclipsing Ivan.

I think Emily 2005 was a cat 5 in the vicinity of Matthew

[AutoPenalti]

Real quick I am pledging that whatever Matthews final ace is I am going to donate that much in dollars to storm2k, anybody else in?

Matthew's and all other tropical cyclone ACE can be tracked here:

http://models.weatherbell.com/tropical.php


Sent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalk

Ditto for me!

I wouldn't mind donating too.

[CrazyC83]

I was out tonight in my school's broadcast lab and did a report live primarily on Hurricane Matthew, so I am just catching up (although I did get the Category 5 advisory).

[RL3AO]

I believe it is the furthest South cat 5 on record just barely eclipsing Ivan.

I think Emily 2005 was a cat 5 in the vicinity of Matthew

 https://twitter.com/islivingston/status/782060108016603136

[ScottNAtlanta]

Latest IR frame looks like the inner eyewall may be collapsing.

There is my ERC starting! I was just 6 hours early!

[Hurricaneman]

I believe it is the furthest South cat 5 on record just barely eclipsing Ivan.

I think Emily 2005 was a cat 5 in the vicinity of Matthew

 https://twitter.com/islivingston/status/782060108016603136

Emily wasn't that far south

[fci]

The Phantom lingering low to the North has vanished. The only weakness shown now is digging down into Texas Just as Mathew is reaching Texas. I feel the Gulf is still fair game. The west shift of the models are inching toward that solution slowly but surely

Zero models showing this in the Gulf.

[1900hurricane]

Ok, for all of you who said I was wrong about seeing an ERC about to begin, this is directly from the 11PM discussion:

"HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016

...Matthew probably is near its peak intensity and will likely maintain a similar strength during the next 12 hours or so. Data from the reconnaissance plane show an incipient outer band of maximum winds, indicating that an eyewall replacement cycle could occur soon...

That's what I said I saw in a post not long ago, and I saw it because you could see a ring of higher topped thunderstorms surrounding the small eye. RECON does NOT usually see an ERC before we see it on satellite and/or radar since the developing outer eyewall, while immediately visible on satellite, does not immediately induce the corresponding increase in winds that a plane can detect; it takes a little time for the outer ring of winds to get established and be measureable by RECON. Just sayin' to you guys who questioned me that not all aspects of hurricane dynamics can be detected by our incredible RECON planes first.

Eyewall replacement may be beginning now, but I do maintain that eyewall replacement had not begun at the time of your original post over five hours ago. Even now, I'm not 100% sold that one has begun, despite NHC mentioning the possibility in their discussion. I do respect your thoughts, don't get me wrong. However, based on the information I have, I do not agree that eyewall replacement was underway over five hours ago.

I'm replying because you are one of the best forecasters on here.
I said it was near or about to begin, or at least that was clearly my intention from the post. My main point was that:
1) I could see an outer ring of thunderstorms surrounding the small eye at that time
and
2) most importantly, that we can usually see that feature on satellite before RCON can measure it.

Do you disagree with those two points?

First of all, thanks!

It looks like there may have been some slight misunderstanding in my interpretation of your original post. It seemed like you were stating that Matthew was in the midst of one at the time.

Regarding point 1, I'm not sure if you mean the intense thunderstorm activity intermittently pulsing around the eyewall or signs of a secondary max in thunderstorm activity that could be from a developing outer eyewall. I can't remember for certain which image we were looking at at the time, but based on your post time of 2227Z, it was probably the 2145Z image. The eyewall convection looked well defined at the time, but I have difficulty seeing anything beyond that.

As far as point 2, yes, I agree that we are usually able to remotely detect the beginning stages of eyewall replacement before recon is able to detect a double wind maximum. My go to choice for trying to identify eyewall replacement as early as possible is from microwave imagery aboard the polar orbiters, and this is another place where we may differ. Based on a number of microwave images as recently as a 0157Z Metop-B pass (below), I don't see any signs of eyewall replacement. It could be possible that an outer eyewall developed in so tight that it it's too difficult to discern from the inner on the somewhat low resolution Metop-B pass (Fiji radar actually captured an eyewall replacement cycle like this beautifully in Cyclone Winston earlier this year), but until I see more concrete evidence, probably in the form of a higher resolution microwave pass (crossing my fingers that AMSR2 gets a clean hit) or obvious tell-tale signs on IR of an inner eyewall dissipating, I am a little skeptical of Matthew currently being in the process of eyewall replacement.



Could I be wrong? Heck yeah I could. If I am, better now on an internet forum rather than when something more is at stake.

[Mouton]

"I am growing more concerned with the west shift and now tonight for the first time, NHC has placed a portion of the SE Florida coast region in that cone of uncertainty. That is an ominous sign for me and one that we must keep in our minds that if these west shifts with the models continue into this weekend, the possibility of seeing significant effects on the Florida coast increases with time as well. Extremely interesting and nerve-wrecking times ahead for sure."

Yes I go with that same observation. The GFS is rolling at the moment and the shift westward is evident there. It looks like the hurricane windfield pings the coast north of Palm Beach and continues to Canaveral on the O0z run. Then Matt begins a more NNE turn. JAX is in the lower end of the tropical force winds at that point of critical importance to me. Beyond that, the progress would be along the coast up to Maine, a beach disaster. However, with all the variables in place and that being at day 6+ there cannot be much certainty in the actual path.

[stephen23]

The Phantom lingering low to the North has vanished. The only weakness shown now is digging down into Texas Just as Mathew is reaching Texas. I feel the Gulf is still fair game. The west shift of the models are inching toward that solution slowly but surely

I am actually starting to worry about this system. I don't think he will make it to Louisiana, but you never know with systems like this. I hope my gut is correct and this will not make it into the gulf, but if he does make it into the Gulf we might end up seeing the strongest hurricane on record with winds over 210. The GoM is a steaming pot waiting to feed a major hurricane to new records.

Yes misspoke. Watching TV and typing at same time. Did not mean to say as storm reaches Texas. I meant to say Florida. The afternoon GFS showed strong ridging to the east and North with a strong trough over Texas. Path of least resistance would bring it into the Gulf if that materialized. May be an exaggeration to say Texas. But the Gulf is still fair game. All models to the east are relying on a phantom low to the North that some are starting to drop. The slower this goes the more that pans out. Everyone should watch this closely and I have a cousin stationed in Miami for the Coast Guard so watching this one extra close

[stephen23]

The Phantom lingering low to the North has vanished. The only weakness shown now is digging down into Texas Just as Mathew is reaching Texas. I feel the Gulf is still fair game. The west shift of the models are inching toward that solution slowly but surely

Zero models showing this in the Gulf.

Wait until tomorrow

[ScottNAtlanta]

I believe it is the furthest South cat 5 on record just barely eclipsing Ivan.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I believe it is the furthest South cat 5 on record just barely eclipsing Ivan.

I think Emily 2005 was a cat 5 in the vicinity of Matthew

 https://twitter.com/islivingston/status/782060108016603136

Emily 2005

[HurricaneFrances04]

Emily didn't attain Cat 5 status until it passed Jamaica.

[ozonepete]

Eyewall replacement may be beginning now, but I do maintain that eyewall replacement had not begun at the time of your original post over five hours ago. Even now, I'm not 100% sold that one has begun... ,
...
but until I see more concrete evidence, probably in the form of a higher resolution microwave pass (crossing my fingers that AMSR2 gets a clean hit) or obvious tell-tale signs on IR of an inner eyewall dissipating, I am a little skeptical of Matthew currently being in the process of eyewall replacement.

Could I be wrong? Heck yeah I could. If I am, better now on an internet forum rather than when something more is at stake.

Lol, join the crowd of those who are ready to eat crow and who've eaten it many times.

89 and 91GHZ satellite images are notoriously weak and vague. They both show structure of the precip targets below the cirrus at the top of the storm but cannot ever be more clear than the overnight IR or RGB satellite images for showing the highest coldest cloud tops, and therefore the highest most intense thunderstorms around and within the eyewall. So you take the 88 or 91GHZ images to look for the newest indications of a second outer eyewall and I'll take the regular channel IR images.

P.S. The current eyewall may be winking at you as it disappears...

[hurricanehunter69]

First off let me say that being a Katrina survivor; my heart goes out to anyone who has to deal with this thing. We talk about Trough vs Ridge....Ridge vs Trough vs Ridge...Although still influenced; The Big Boy ( Cat 5 ) is usually the Bully in the synoptic setup.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I was being sarcastic this time...I was obviously wrong the first time...thats why I said I was 6 hours early. The NHC has stated on the 11p discussion that it looks like an ERC could be starting

[ScottNAtlanta]

Emily didn't attain Cat 5 status until it passed Jamaica.

Sorry...color blindness getting best of me. Thought the color was the same in the Matthew vicinity

[Blinhart]

No matter where Matthew goes, you know the cruise companies right now are trying to figure out exactly they will be doing with all their cruises, a lot of them will have to change their schedules and decide where they will be going or cancelling and moving their ships to another area to ride out the storm.

[1900hurricane]

Eyewall replacement may be beginning now, but I do maintain that eyewall replacement had not begun at the time of your original post over five hours ago. Even now, I'm not 100% sold that one has begun... ,
...
but until I see more concrete evidence, probably in the form of a higher resolution microwave pass (crossing my fingers that AMSR2 gets a clean hit) or obvious tell-tale signs on IR of an inner eyewall dissipating, I am a little skeptical of Matthew currently being in the process of eyewall replacement.

Could I be wrong? Heck yeah I could. If I am, better now on an internet forum rather than when something more is at stake.

Lol, join the crowd of those who are ready to eat crow and who've eaten it many times.

89 and 91GHZ satellite images are notoriously weak and vague. They both show structure of the precip targets below the cirrus at the top of the storm but cannot ever be more clear than the overnight IR or RGB satellite images for showing the highest coldest cloud tops, and therefore the highest most intense thunderstorms around and within the eyewall. So you take the 88 or 91GHZ images to look for the newest indications of a second outer eyewall and I'll take the regular channel IR images.

P.S. The current eyewall may be winking at you as it disappears...

No arguments here that the overall IR struture had degraded somewhat over the past few hours. However, if I do not believe it is eyewall replacement at the moment causing the degradation, it would probably be best for me to have some other explanation. The one I support actually has to do with a brief uptick in shear thanks in part by earlier daytime pulsing convection from Central America. Storm outflow appears to me to have reenforced upper level southwesterlies just enough to have an impact on Matthew. That upper level thunderstorm debris may be sneaking in into Matthew's circulation just under outflow level.





Also, based on radar from South America, Matthew's eyewall still looks rather lonely.