ATL: Ex INVEST 92L - Discussion

[drezee]

Looks just like Iris from 1995...Iris was a little south of 92L

[colbroe]

Looks like 92l is exploding over Barbados lots of rain and thunder,looking at it as it approaches it getting larger .

[GCANE]

This may be more than just shear-induced convection.

Cloud tops getting colder and a 1C warm core.

what you mean?

Usually as a wave interacts with an ULL, most of the NW convection is from shear.
However, shear-induced convection in the tropics is relatively short lived.
It can't last long enough to generate a warm core, especially at 1C; and cloud tops usually don't get that cold.
IMHO, the convection is more indicative of a surface low.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[Alyono]

low level inflow has increased today

[srainhoutx]

low level inflow has increased today

Yes it has. Very noticeable inflow from the ITCZ this afternoon via zoomed visible imagery. Still moving too quickly and obstacles ahead in the Eastern Caribbean, but I will not be surprised to see conditions become more favorable as this disturbance slows down later next week in the Western Caribbean. Worth monitoring for potential TC genesis somewhere S of Jamaica.

[abajan]

We're currently getting light rain (becoming heavier as I type) with thunder (getting louder as I type).

[Bailey1777]

So how does steering look over the next 5 days? Stay low, gom, or brought north?

[GCANE]

[Gustywind]

Judging from the satellite loops, I think the weather being forecast for Barbados is more likely to occur in the islands to its northwest, especially the Leewards. Be ready, Gustywind!

Thanks to you , good catch. Yellow alert have been activated for Guadeloupe and Martinica for a risk of strong showers and tstorms. Yes Abajan, we stay focus on 92L in case of, bear watching mode.

[Dean4Storms]

This is trying to get better organized this evening, if that deeper convection persists and grows lookout!

[Gustywind]

Judging from the satellite loops, I think the weather being forecast for Barbados is more likely to occur in the islands to its northwest, especially the Leewards. Be ready, Gustywind!

Thanks to you , good catch. Yellow alert have been activated for Guadeloupe and Martinica for a risk of strong showers and tstorms. Yes Abajan, we stay focus on 92L in case of, bear watching mode.

Excuse me since 6PM should i say ORANGE alert for Guadeloupe and even Martinica too. Looks like juicy amount of water are expected till Monday night in these both island especially Guadeloupe. We will see. Keep an eye on this one islander! I will keep you informed my friends if anything happens.
Regards.
Gustywind
http://www.meteofrance.gp/vigilance-antilles-guyane

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

A tropical wave accompanied by a broad area of low pressure located
about 300 miles east of the Lesser Antilles continues to produce a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. While a
recent buoy observation east of the islands indicates that the wave
is producing winds just below tropical storm force, environmental
conditions are only marginally conducive for any additional
development of this system while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds,
possibly to tropical storm force, are expected over portions of the
Lesser Antilles overnight and continuing through Sunday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[gatorcane]

Saved loop

[Nimbus]

"marginally conducive"?
If the system is able to remain as a sharp wave through the Caribbean the models will have to do something with it in the gulf. Early Cmc runs had it tracking over Lake Pontchartrain.

[tolakram]

live ir

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=15&lon=-56&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=gray

[Alyono]

NHCs probs are entirely model driven it appears

[abajan]

Currently projected to miss Hispaniola and head towards the western Caribbean (an area with a reputation for producing monster canes)

[Gustywind]

Cycloneye do you have the latest of the Best Track please? Thanks .
Looks like a nice ball of convection is forming near 14,9W 54, 55W.

[Gustywind]

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2016

A tropical wave is moving across the central Atlc with an axis
extending from 20N54W to a 1009 mb low near 14N54W to 07N54W,
moving W at 15-20 kt. This wave is embedded in a broad area of
high TPW. Divergent upper-level winds are supporting numerous
moderate and isolated strong convection from 13N to 17N between
51W to 58W. Satellite-derived wind data show the pres gradient
on the N side of the wave is also generating a broad area of
fresh to strong NE to E winds from 13N to 20N between 45W and
60W.

[Bailey1777]

Someone educate me please...is the windsat based on surface winds?