ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[gatorcane]

Euro tracks closer, but ultimately out to sea, or potentially a landfall in Atlantic Canada.

The turn OTS happens after 168 hours though. The UKMET is bending this WNW in the SE Bahamas so the turn WNW or NW in the Bahamas has support by the UKMET and JMA.

[LarryWx]

The JMA is an inferior model imo. When it has a solution that isn't close to any other major model, it actually may not be as "good" as the CMC. Regardless, I think trends in it from one run to the next can be a hint of what the better models might do later just as is the case for most models like the CMC. Like any model, it will find its nut once in a blue moon and lead other models. So, the FL east coast hits the last two 12Z JMA runs are showing should be used as a hint of what may happen to FL, especially since other models aren't all that far offshore. The JMA isn't that far west of the model consensus.

[Kazmit]

If Matthew decides to skim the eastern Florida coast, it should be weaker due to land interaction with Cuba/Jamaica. But then again, the waters around the Bahamas are very warm.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Florida is definitely not out of the woods yet

Everybody is "in the woods" till that turn is made AT LEAST and we get the models in the 5 day range or less on the ridging, even then Joaquin keeps coming to mind as how difficult the longer range forecasting may end up being. 100 mile difference makes a big difference at these angles of approach to FL

[HurrMark]

12Z GEFS

From what I can see here, the stronger members are more susceptible to go OTS.

[ConvergenceZone]

Euro tracks closer, but ultimately out to sea, or potentially a landfall in Atlantic Canada.

But the trend is the key. If next EURO shows this moving even closer yet to the East Coast, then we need to really pay attention

[Medtronic15]

[Hurricaneman]

the 0z models will have the recon upper air and mid level steering inputs in it so the 0z may have close to the final solution

[Alyono]

12Z JMA turning this WNW in the Bahamas and then ends up hitting Florida:

It misses Florida

However, it is also as strong as I have ever seen a 2.5 degree resolution model. That may be cat 5 at the end of the run

[CourierPR]

If Matthew decides to skim the eastern Florida coast, it should be weaker due to land interaction with Cuba/Jamaica. But then again, the waters around the Bahamas are very warm.

Not necessarily. In 1964, Hurricane Cleo crossed Eastern Cuba and weakened to a tropical storm. As it approached the east coast of Florida, it regained hurricane strength and gave us winds of 110 mph.

[jason1912]

Close to a capture on the EURO with the negatively-titled trough from the Mid-west.

[Blown Away]

18z Guidance... Decent W Shift...

[Evil Jeremy]

Staying focused on the short-term for a moment, today's 12z models are disastrous for Jamaica. Looking more and more like they will receive the brunt of a a significant hurricane this weekend.

[Hurricaneman]

and notice the stronger this is the farther west it goes

[Alyono]

This is why NHC should be following the dynamical models and NOT the LGE

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 66 67 68 67 69 68 74 82 81 83 82
V (KT) LAND 65 66 66 67 68 67 69 68 74 82 81 65 66
V (KT) LGEM 65 67 68 68 67 64 62 61 63 67 72 61 65
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 19 19 20 15 13 11 6 10 2 3 2 10 11
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 1 4 4 1 7 0 6 1 0 3 7

This is really only going to intensify by 10 kts while under < 10 kts of shear for 48 hours over the Caribbean? Really?

Stick with dynamical models. Statistical models tend to flop badly during rapid intensity changes

[Alyono]

and notice the stronger this is the farther west it goes

exactly what I said earlier. A STRONGER system will be the one moving farther to the west. A weaker one will move more to the east

[sma10]

Pretty funny, huh? The Euro has trended East and West of it's previous run ... in the same run!

What? Where did it trend east of the 0z?

It's virtually impossible to trend the 0Z with the 12Z due to the 24hr intervals. I was comparing 12Z 29Sep with 12Z 28Sep.

[gatorcane]

@gatorcane, look how far the Ukmet blue line moves WNW towards Florida. Bears watching


Sent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalk

Yes because to me that indicates the UKMET similar to the ECMWF and JMA are seeing some kind of ridge building in across the SW Atlantic that could turn the cyclone more WNW or NW in the Bahamas or north of Eastern Cuba instead of a quick recurve like the GFS/CMC/NAVGEM show. Bears watching for sure.

[sma10]

@gatorcane, look how far the Ukmet blue line moves WNW towards Florida. Bears watching


Sent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalk

Yes, extremely interesting. The text that UKmet puts out on cyclone position only goes out 144hrs, but graphic goes an additional 24hrs and there is a noticeable WNW movement. Not sure about UK's reliability compared to Euro and GFS, however.

[Steve H.]

If it wasn't mentioned earlier the HWRF and the GFDL have trended west as well. Getting closer and closer to Grand Bahama Island