ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[gatorcane]

WAY too close for us here in South Florida looking at today's Euro run out through 192 hours:

[wxmann_91]

Comparing the 12Z Euro against the 0Z, it looks like the latest run has once again trended weaker with the ULL over the Gulf. The ULL retreats back to the SW which allows ridging to build back over future Matthew. This may be one of the reasons this has gone back west.

There's so many players past Day 6 (trough or closed low over the western Atlantic, Gulf ULL, SE of Bermuda ULL, and Plains trof) which all will have a huge impact on what happens in that time range. Expect much windshield-wipering in the coming days and below-average forecast confidence after Matthew emerges from Cuba/Hispaniola.

[Siker]

I'm guessing the 12Z Euro will have a rather sharp recurve east of the east coast by day 10 though moving slowly. Let's see.

Reason: the high to the north has weakened considerably on 192 hour map.

Perhaps but the Euro resolution drops after hour 168 so from here on it larger errors are possible.

This is not true; Euro keeps the same resolution through 240 just like the GFS.

[Fishing]

I might be eating crow soon if that keeps up.

Yeah well I hope you don't have too. I'm beginning to fee the slightest tinge of anxiety here.

[centuryv58]

Anyone know how the JMA model has performed this year as compared to the EURO and GFS? I have never really followed it enough to gauge its consistency or levels of accuracy.

It basically has no level of accuracy, you might as well look at the NAVGEM

Well, sounds like we can somewhat discount the JMA lol. So lets take that a step further. Anyone really follow these peripheral models know how the NASA model compares to the JMA?

Nope. It's used as a verification for other models. Opinions informed and not vary widely on Storm2K about it.

[hurricaneCW]

Key differences between gfs and Euro is the speed and timing of Matthew. Euro is still much slower than gfs so it gets kicked NE by the next trough. It'll make a huge difference as far as east coast impacts go.

[tolakram]

[gatorcane]

18Z models, BAM-D with a west shift:

[tolakram]

12Z GEFS

[SeGaBob]

Euro ensembles might be interesting...

[Hurricaneman]

Is it me or does the 12zGFS look like a track mix of Hazel and Gloria

[ConvergenceZone]

It's official. The models are definitely trending West. Euro getting closer to the East Coast.

[ronyan]

If the northward turn is delayed a little it could miss the Cuban mountains. Or if it is early it will miss Cuba altogether and clip Haiti.

[jdjaguar]

Anyone know how the JMA model has performed this year as compared to the EURO and GFS? I have never really followed it enough to gauge its consistency or levels of accuracy.

same.

that is uncomfortably close as I now live 2 miles from the ocean.

[caneseddy]

Not liking that trend west, even though I still think it stays offshore of South Florida. Seems the official track is on the eastern side of the spaghetti models.

[ConvergenceZone]

Florida is definitely not out of the woods yet

[WeatherEmperor]

@gatorcane, look how far the Ukmet blue line moves WNW towards Florida. Bears watching


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[DESTRUCTION5]

18Z models, BAM-D with a west shift:

Def a trend west today...Many more were crossing Hati before now all E Cuba and points east. (besides for the random UKMET track zig zag)

[TheHook210]

I live 3 Miles from Cape Canaveral on a barrier island. That run just made me very nervous. I want NOTHING to do with a Cat 4.

[TimeZone]

Euro tracks closer, but ultimately out to sea, or potentially a landfall in Atlantic Canada.