ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Joe Snow]

I think this sets the record to a CAT 5 from a TS in under 36 hrs.

[bamajammer4eva]

Wilma did intensify fairly fast though it went from hurricane to 185 in 24 hrs wheras Matthew has went from 60 ts to 160

A tropical depression formed in the Caribbean Sea near Jamaica on October 15, and intensified into a tropical storm two days later, which was named Wilma. After heading westward as a tropical depression, Wilma turned abruptly southward after becoming a tropical storm. Wilma continued intensifying, and eventually became a hurricane on October 18. Shortly thereafter, rapid intensification occurred, and in only 24 hours, Wilma became a Category 5 hurricane with winds of 185 mph

[Medtronic15]

#PrayForJamaica

[ronyan]

Wilma did intensify fairly fast though it went from hurricane to 185 in 24 hrs wheras Matthew has went from 60 ts to 160

A tropical depression formed in the Caribbean Sea near Jamaica on October 15, and intensified into a tropical storm two days later, which was named Wilma. After heading westward as a tropical depression, Wilma turned abruptly southward after becoming a tropical storm. Wilma continued intensifying, and eventually became a hurricane on October 18. Shortly thereafter, rapid intensification occurred, and in only 24 hours, Wilma became a Category 5 hurricane with winds of 185 mph

Matthew did not go from 60 to 160 mph in 24 hours, that would be closer to 36 I believe.

[MaineWeatherNut]

I don't understand why NHC does not forecast any re-intensification before the storm hits Jamaica.

I think one of the big things is that this storm is really approaching the strongest it can be. From here on out it's intensity is really going to be governed by internal structural changes. A ERC could weakening it a whole lot more then the NHC is forecasting it to then it could restrengthen but in the end it all averages out.

[ronyan]

Wilma did intensify fairly fast though it went from hurricane to 185 in 24 hrs wheras Matthew has went from 60 ts to 160

A tropical depression formed in the Caribbean Sea near Jamaica on October 15, and intensified into a tropical storm two days later, which was named Wilma. After heading westward as a tropical depression, Wilma turned abruptly southward after becoming a tropical storm. Wilma continued intensifying, and eventually became a hurricane on October 18. Shortly thereafter, rapid intensification occurred, and in only 24 hours, Wilma became a Category 5 hurricane with winds of 185 mph

Matthew did not go from 60 to 160 mph in 24 hours. Matthew was initialized as a 60 mph tropical storm on Wednesday morning 11AM advisory. He did however go from 75 to 160 in 30 hours.

[johngaltfla]

I think this sets the record to a CAT 5 from a TS in under 36 hrs.

First Cat 5 at this low of latitude in Atlantic Hurricane History. Buckle up, it's going to get real.

[Ntxw]

Wilma did intensify fairly fast though it went from hurricane to 185 in 24 hrs wheras Matthew has went from 60 ts to 160

A tropical depression formed in the Caribbean Sea near Jamaica on October 15, and intensified into a tropical storm two days later, which was named Wilma. After heading westward as a tropical depression, Wilma turned abruptly southward after becoming a tropical storm. Wilma continued intensifying, and eventually became a hurricane on October 18. Shortly thereafter, rapid intensification occurred, and in only 24 hours, Wilma became a Category 5 hurricane with winds of 185 mph

Matthew did not go from 60 to 160 mph in 24 hours, that would be closer to 36 I believe.

The Atlantic fastest increase record in 24hrs is Wilma with an increase of 95kts. The Western Hemisphere record is Patricia in the EPAC last year of 105kts.

[NDG]

Wilma also had the largest pressure drop in 24 hrs in the Atlantic Basin for a record, a whopping 83 mb. Felix was second.

[Nate-Gillson]

Wilma did intensify fairly fast though it went from hurricane to 185 in 24 hrs wheras Matthew has went from 60 ts to 160

Matthew did not go from 60 to 160 mph in 24 hours, that would be closer to 36 I believe.

The Atlantic fastest increase record in 24hrs is Wilma with an increase of 95kts. The Western Hemisphere record is Patricia in the EPAC last year of 105kts.

Ah, Patricia, aka the EF5 hypercane. It weakened much faster than it intensified, though.

[Hammy]

Recon gone already?

Yeah, the it seems like the true intensity isn't likely to make the official record.

IMHO, I would not say that yet. As one of the pro-mets said on the previous page, after the shear dies down, Jamaica COULD get walloped; it depends on forward speed and time to reorganize and intensify between the next couple of cycles. This is, in my opinion, something new for hurricanes we may have to deal with in the years to come. I hope the Jamaican government has started to evacuate the eastern half of the island no later than tomorrow.

I meant more specifically the current intensity, whether it re-intensifies or not. It seems I was wrong regardless, as it was upgraded about 15 minutes later.

[johngaltfla]

Yeah, the it seems like the true intensity isn't likely to make the official record.

IMHO, I would not say that yet. As one of the pro-mets said on the previous page, after the shear dies down, Jamaica COULD get walloped; it depends on forward speed and time to reorganize and intensify between the next couple of cycles. This is, in my opinion, something new for hurricanes we may have to deal with in the years to come. I hope the Jamaican government has started to evacuate the eastern half of the island no later than tomorrow.

I meant more specifically the current intensity, whether it re-intensifies or not. It seems I was wrong regardless, as it was upgraded about 15 minutes later.

My fear is no one will peg this one until the 24 hour window. If it drifts further west by 50-100 miles, it's a whole new ball game. And not a good one. The problem with Cat 5's is they do their own thing some times and that is interesting to watch, terrifying to think about.

[bamajammer4eva]

The area of convection just east of Matt looks like it's trying to merge and become one with Matt. Could we see Matt grow up and really become a big boy soon?

[SouthDadeFish]

Based on a preliminary calculation, since 1989, only Hurricanes Wilma (70, 90, 95 kt) and Felix (85 kt) exhibited faster 24-hr intensification rates than Hurricane Matthew (70 kt). Hurricane Ike also had a 24-hr period of +70 kt intensity change. Just to put that into perspective for you.... We just witnessed a relatively rare occurrence.

[Ptarmigan]

Intensity forecast still has a long way to go. Not too surprised to see Matthew as a Category 5 hurricane. The western part of Caribbean is very warm. Interesting to see central pressure of 941 millibars.

[Alyono]

this is weaker as for the first time, there was a bad initial initialization in terms of intensity. Won't affect track though

[ozonepete]

Ozonepete, I see you have made it tonight here on the forums Great to see you.. What about this beast in the Caribbean? Curious about your thoughts about the latest turn of events with this beast Matthew?

Great to see you too again my friend! Haven't been on much here yet this season. If you told me yesterday that this would be a cat 5 today I would have argued against it but by midday today you could see this was breaking the rules by starting to RI under pretty high shear conditions. That was remarkable all by itself so since then nothing should surprise us.

For Jamaica and Cuba this is most likely going to be devastating. Kingston will hopefully be protected from the north winds by their mountains to the north but the angle of incidence at the coast for Cuba may cause terrible damage. All we can do is hope this weakens as it recurves.

Like everyone else I'm sure you're watching the Euro and GFS waver back and forth on track speed and direction after it passes Cuba. Everything hinges on the 500 mb trough that will be moving into the central U.S. during the midweek. The Euro used to think the trough would weaken and move away quickly, leaving Matthew wandering near the Bahamas with no steering winds. Now it is starting to agree with the GFS and most other models that this storm will cross Cuba and keep moving northward pretty fast, approaching and maybe hitting the southeast coast before recurving to the northeast. The GFDL has it coming almost onshore at central Florida and most of the others have it near or over Hatteras by midweek before recurving. Just too early to say but I would watch that 500 mb trough coming onto the northwest U.S. coast this weekend. The stronger and the deeper it is the more likely it will pull Matthew closer to shore.

[1900hurricane]

Ok, for all of you who said I was wrong about seeing an ERC about to begin, this is directly from the 11PM discussion:

"HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016

...Matthew probably is near its peak intensity and will likely maintain a similar strength during the next 12 hours or so. Data from the reconnaissance plane show an incipient outer band of maximum winds, indicating that an eyewall replacement cycle could occur soon...

That's what I said I saw in a post not long ago, and I saw it because you could see a ring of higher topped thunderstorms surrounding the small eye. RECON does NOT usually see an ERC before we see it on satellite and/or radar since the developing outer eyewall, while immediately visible on satellite, does not immediately induce the corresponding increase in winds that a plane can detect; it takes a little time for the outer ring of winds to get established and be measureable by RECON. Just sayin' to you guys who questioned me that not all aspects of hurricane dynamics can be detected by our incredible RECON planes first.

Eyewall replacement may be beginning now, but I do maintain that eyewall replacement had not begun at the time of your original post over five hours ago. Even now, I'm not 100% sold that one has begun, despite NHC mentioning the possibility in their discussion. I do respect your thoughts, don't get me wrong. However, based on the information I have, I do not agree that eyewall replacement was underway over five hours ago.

[northjaxpro]

Hey ozonepete. Great seeing you my friend. Tonight isreminding me of the old days on here uh?? Yeah I agree with your observations and we will be watching with eyes glued to this beast in the days to come. It is just going to be utter devastation to Jamaica and Cuba and potentially the Bahamas. My heart really is aching hard for those folks down there for certain.

[Steve820]

Matthew is seriously looking monstrous. Cuba, Jamaica, and Haiti should all be ready to be struck by a big hurricane, and so should the East Coast in the long run. It was only a Category 1 yesterday and now we have our first category 5 in 9 YEARS. This is unreal...I must be dreaming.