ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Florida1118]

Did this become a Cat 5? That's what wikipedia is saying

Go back a few pages, or go to the NHC site, or go to literally any other weather site. Wikipedia really isn't the go to information source.

[HurricaneRyan]

Interesting to note, Matthew is the replacement name for Mitch, also an October Cat 5.

And Matthew is the strongest M named storm since Michelle in 2001.

[terstorm1012]

According to the latest advisory this is moving due west? How exactly? Doesn't appear to look that way.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

Might just be slight wobbles, last few frames show a more westerly turn.

use a 360 degree compass. Matthew is moving south of due west, or 265 degrees. 270 is due west. It says it in the discussion.

[northjaxpro]

Ozonepete, I see you have made it tonight here on the forums Great to see you.. What about this beast in the Caribbean? Curious about your thoughts about the latest turn of events with this beast Matthew?

[Florida1118]

file:///C:/Users/stormrider/Desktop/025623W5_NL_sm.gif

Compare cone versus yesterday at same time.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... l#contents

It's the same size. No ifs, ands, or buts. There is no arguement you can make, it factually is the same size.

[HurricaneBelle]

Interesting to note, Matthew is the replacement name for Mitch, also an October Cat 5.

And Matthew is the strongest M named storm since Michelle in 2001.

It's the strongest M storm since Mitch, Michelle peaked at Cat 4.

[toad strangler]

Steve Weagle just used Wilma as an analog IRT intensity.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Steve Weagle just used Wilma as an analog IRT intensity.

Felix '07 is more apt. Wilma didn't go from a TS to Cat 5 this quickly.

[ozonepete]

Ok, for all of you who said I was wrong about seeing an ERC about to begin, this is directly from the 11PM discussion:

"HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016

...Matthew probably is near its peak intensity and will likely maintain a similar strength during the next 12 hours or so. Data from the reconnaissance plane show an incipient outer band of maximum winds, indicating that an eyewall replacement cycle could occur soon...

That's what I said I saw in a post not long ago, and I saw it because you could see a ring of higher topped thunderstorms surrounding the small eye. RECON does NOT usually see an ERC before we see it on satellite and/or radar since the developing outer eyewall, while immediately visible on satellite, does not immediately induce the corresponding increase in winds that a plane can detect; it takes a little time for the outer ring of winds to get established and be measureable by RECON. Just sayin' to you guys who questioned me that not all aspects of hurricane dynamics can be detected by our incredible RECON planes first.

[Ntxw]

Steve Weagle just used Wilma as an analog IRT intensity.

Felix '07 is more apt. Wilma didn't go from a TS to Cat 5 this quickly.

Yeah and the higher pressures is also more inclined with Felix than Wilma...as discussed in previous pages 941mb for 140kts is pretty high

[floridasun78]

ok my weather say now that monday if shift more west will be day south fl will have hurr watch

[Macrocane]

Matthew was born to reach cat 5, the first model runs showed that although in a different location and with a different track. Matthew is one of the most interesting storms I've ever watched, and to think that it still has several days of life ahead is just as exciting as frightening.

[johngaltfla]

Recon gone already?

Yeah, the it seems like the true intensity isn't likely to make the official record.

IMHO, I would not say that yet. As one of the pro-mets said on the previous page, after the shear dies down, Jamaica COULD get walloped; it depends on forward speed and time to reorganize and intensify between the next couple of cycles. This is, in my opinion, something new for hurricanes we may have to deal with in the years to come. I hope the Jamaican government has started to evacuate the eastern half of the island no later than tomorrow.

[Raebie]

Ok, for all of you who said I was wrong about seeing an ERC about to begin, this is directly from the 11PM discussion:

"HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016

...Matthew probably is near its peak intensity and will likely maintain a similar strength during the next 12 hours or so. Data from the reconnaissance plane show an incipient outer band of maximum winds, indicating that an eyewall replacement cycle could occur soon...

That's what I said I saw in a post not long ago, and I saw it because you could see a ring of higher topped thunderstorms surrounding the small eye. RECON does NOT usually see an ERC before we see it on satellite and/or radar since the developing outer eyewall, while immediately visible on satellite, does not show the corresponding increase in winds right away that a plane can detect. Just sayin' to you guys who questioned me that not all aspects of hurricane dynamics can be detected by our incredible RECON planes first.

And for the record, I agreed with you.

[sponger]

Earlier W shifts in some models not enough to convince the brass as of yet.

Compare that cone to tonight's 11. Track moved a bit but cone moved a lot!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... l#contents[url][/url]

[txwatcher91]

Ok, for all of you who said I was wrong about seeing an ERC about to begin, this is directly from the 11PM discussion:

"HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016

...Matthew probably is near its peak intensity and will likely maintain a similar strength during the next 12 hours or so. Data from the reconnaissance plane show an incipient outer band of maximum winds, indicating that an eyewall replacement cycle could occur soon...

That's what I said I saw in a post not long ago, and I saw it because you could see a ring of higher topped thunderstorms surrounding the small eye. RECON does NOT usually see an ERC before we see it on satellite and/or radar since the developing outer eyewall, while immediately visible on satellite, does not show the corresponding increase in winds right away that a plane can detect. Just sayin' to you guys who questioned me that not all aspects of hurricane dynamics can be detected by our incredible RECON planes first.

Good post! Typically the EWRC can form a larger eye and expand the wind field also, in my experience. What do you think? Also I'm surprised this has so much shear over it yet it doesn't seem affected much?

[ozonepete]

Raebie and txwatcher

[EquusStorm]

I think having Patricia in the Epac last year softened the impact of having the nine year streak ended. Even so it is amazing considering the intense hurricanes of 2008 and 2010, and the relative lack of intense hurricanes in recent seasons (save for Joaquin) that this was the one to do it. Wow.

[AtlanticWind]

Steve Weagle just used Wilma as an analog IRT intensity.

Felix '07 is more apt. Wilma didn't go from a TS to Cat 5 this quickly.

Wilma went from a tropical storm to a Cat 5 in 24 hours

[Nate-Gillson]

Ok, for all of you who said I was wrong about seeing an ERC about to begin, this is directly from the 11PM discussion:

"HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016

...Matthew probably is near its peak intensity and will likely maintain a similar strength during the next 12 hours or so. Data from the reconnaissance plane show an incipient outer band of maximum winds, indicating that an eyewall replacement cycle could occur soon...

That's what I said I saw in a post not long ago, and I saw it because you could see a ring of higher topped thunderstorms surrounding the small eye. RECON does NOT usually see an ERC before we see it on satellite and/or radar since the developing outer eyewall, while immediately visible on satellite, does not show the corresponding increase in winds right away that a plane can detect. Just sayin' to you guys who questioned me that not all aspects of hurricane dynamics can be detected by our incredible RECON planes first.

Good post! Typically the EWRC can form a larger eye and expand the wind field also, in my experience. What do you think? Also I'm surprised this has so much shear over it yet it doesn't seem affected much?

Intense tropical cyclones tend to create their own environment.

Also, has there ever been an northern Atlantic hurricane that made landfall in extreme northern South America?