ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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sma10
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2521 Postby sma10 » Thu Sep 29, 2016 1:38 pm

Pretty funny, huh? The Euro has trended East and West of it's previous run ... in the same run!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2522 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Thu Sep 29, 2016 1:39 pm

ECMWF still struggling >120 hours with this system in regards to track. Absolutely zero consistency.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2523 Postby KWT » Thu Sep 29, 2016 1:39 pm

A big jog to the NW/WNW on the 12z ECM between 144-168hrs. Similar from the looks of things to a few of the other models tonight.

This saga has plenty to run yet it seems. With that being said at this time of year its hard to believe it'll be too long before another upper trough swings by to the north.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2524 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Sep 29, 2016 1:39 pm

Dang! I might be eating crow by the end of this run for discounting Florida completely. :eek:
Last edited by TheStormExpert on Thu Sep 29, 2016 1:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2525 Postby WeatherEmperor » Thu Sep 29, 2016 1:39 pm

12z Ukmet is the blue line. Look carefully right at the end you see the WNW movement

Image


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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2526 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Sep 29, 2016 1:40 pm

Did it make landfall in Florida yet?
Last edited by AutoPenalti on Thu Sep 29, 2016 1:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2527 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 29, 2016 1:40 pm

12Z JMA 168 hour frame to compare to Euro:

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2528 Postby chaser1 » Thu Sep 29, 2016 1:41 pm

sma10 wrote:Pretty funny, huh? The Euro has trended East and West of it's previous run ... in the same run!


Yep, that and that we're seeing rising 500 heights suddenly due north of the storm, in the face of an advancing trough? Granted, the greater energy from this cut-off is shooting north up and around this High but rather than degrade the ridge further, it strengthens?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2529 Postby HurrMark » Thu Sep 29, 2016 1:41 pm

Very decent shift W in the 12Z compared to yesterday's 12Z...roughly 125-150 miles.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2530 Postby WeatherEmperor » Thu Sep 29, 2016 1:41 pm

The 12z Jma at 168hrs is very similar to the Euro at 168hrs with so minor differences ofcoarse


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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2531 Postby centuryv58 » Thu Sep 29, 2016 1:42 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:Dang! I might be eating crow by the end of this run for discounting Florida completely. :eek:


What run? No sure what you mean.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2532 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 29, 2016 1:42 pm

We've got that graphic covered! :lol:

I would challenge the people that keep saying something is MOST likely to either explain why, after looking at the upper levels and previous runs, or just watch and wait. The upper air pattern 'seems' to be giving the Euro fits for some reason.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2533 Postby Blown Away » Thu Sep 29, 2016 1:42 pm

Image
12z Euro... 192 Hours... Cat 3/4... Moving NW North of Bahamas...
Last edited by Blown Away on Thu Sep 29, 2016 1:44 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2534 Postby meriland23 » Thu Sep 29, 2016 1:42 pm

192

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2535 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Sep 29, 2016 1:42 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:Turns back WNW at 144!


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we saw this wnw several times over the past few days on the models....no surprise as they are having problems with the ridge out in time
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2536 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 29, 2016 1:43 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2537 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 29, 2016 1:43 pm

Euro turns this NNW between hours 168 and 192
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2538 Postby HurrMark » Thu Sep 29, 2016 1:43 pm

Wow...941 with still a W component over the NW Bahamas @ 192.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2539 Postby Vinnland » Thu Sep 29, 2016 1:44 pm

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2540 Postby xironman » Thu Sep 29, 2016 1:44 pm

tolakram wrote:We've got that graphic covered! :lol:

I would challenge the people that keep saying something is MOST likely to either explain why, after looking at the upper levels and previous runs, or just watch and wait. The upper air pattern 'seems' to be giving the Euro fits for some reason.


The transition to the fall pattern is always rough, especially in a quasi-Nina year.
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