ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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meriland23
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2461 Postby meriland23 » Thu Sep 29, 2016 12:44 pm

My curiousity is what is driving some of the models east and out to sea? I must just not be seeing what in those models is driving it out.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2462 Postby Blown Away » Thu Sep 29, 2016 12:48 pm

Image
12z Euro initialized...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2463 Postby xironman » Thu Sep 29, 2016 12:50 pm

meriland23 wrote:My curiousity is what is driving some of the models east and out to sea? I must just not be seeing what in those models is driving it out.


Other than the Euro, the GFS is probably the most accurate at this range and has a hit near Norfolk VA, which is not really out to sea.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2464 Postby OntarioEggplant » Thu Sep 29, 2016 12:56 pm

Euro already a bit stronger and slower this run. 979 MB tomorrow morning.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2465 Postby Blown Away » Thu Sep 29, 2016 12:56 pm

Image
12z Euro... Seems faster than 00z...
Last edited by Blown Away on Thu Sep 29, 2016 12:58 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2466 Postby chaser1 » Thu Sep 29, 2016 12:57 pm

Looking over the more detailed surface, 850mb, and 500mb model data and forecast from the CONUS perspective on NCEP and I'm just not seeing the trough formation or rationale for weakening ridge strength, or reasonable impact to the directional flow that would seem to cause a generally westward momentum to simply "stop". Perhaps the storm deepening itself along with weaker 500mb heights as a result of reaching the western periphery of the strongest part of the high to the north, but I see little to suggest that low level bridging doesn't remain from east of the Bahamas westward toward Central Mexico. If that were at all plausible than I'd go so far to think that a turn toward W. Haiti would seem no more likely than a track toward W. Cuba and into the Gulf.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2467 Postby terstorm1012 » Thu Sep 29, 2016 1:00 pm

chaser1 wrote:Looking over the more detailed surface, 850mb, and 500mb model data and forecast from the CONUS perspective on NCEP and I'm just not seeing the trough formation or rationale for weakening ridge strength, or reasonable impact to the directional flow that would seem to cause a generally westward momentum to simply "stop". Perhaps the storm deepening itself along with weaker 500mb heights as a result of reaching the western periphery of the strongest part of the high to the north, but I see little to suggest that low level bridging doesn't remain from east of the Bahamas westward toward Central Mexico. If that were at all plausible than I'd go so far to think that a turn toward W. Haiti would seem no more likely than a track toward W. Cuba and into the Gulf.


wouldn't it be the storm about to come ashore in the Pacific Northwest that would influence it to turn north? or would that be too late
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2468 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 29, 2016 1:01 pm

Euro with some weakening between 24 and 48 hours but position is nearly identical to the 12Z GFS.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2469 Postby SouthDadeFish » Thu Sep 29, 2016 1:01 pm

12Z EC is much stronger through the next 24 hours than the 12Z yesterday. Perhaps the shear is actually not as bad as once thought.

EDIT: and of course then it weakens the TC right after I say this.
Last edited by SouthDadeFish on Thu Sep 29, 2016 1:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2470 Postby Socalhurcnegirl227 » Thu Sep 29, 2016 1:01 pm

12z so far seems to look slightly more SW going west instead of the slightly more north that all the other ones are showing between tomorrow and 72hr
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2471 Postby Blown Away » Thu Sep 29, 2016 1:01 pm

Image
12z Euro... 48 Hours... Cat 1 Now, pressure rise from 979mb... Moving WSW
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2472 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Sep 29, 2016 1:03 pm

12z Euro about to make the abrupt turn north next frame I would think.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2473 Postby Socalhurcnegirl227 » Thu Sep 29, 2016 1:04 pm

Blown Away wrote:Image
12z Euro... 48 Hours... Cat 1 Now, pressure rise from 979mb... Moving WSW

Is that large bright red area east of the seaboard coast that bermuda azores high?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2474 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 29, 2016 1:07 pm

Between 48 and 72 hours very slow turn and now is slower than the GFS at the 72 hour mark and slower than the 00Z Euro.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2475 Postby chaser1 » Thu Sep 29, 2016 1:07 pm

AND.... something at right about this time has thus far caused the storm to turn poleward yet all that I can see is that the 594 high south of Texas seems to weaken and so does the ridge to the north of Matthew right at this time; yet the only low in play at the moment which is the SE Conus cut-off low, appears to weaken and shift northward? I've heard of pumping up the ridge, but not pumping down the ridge.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2476 Postby Socalhurcnegirl227 » Thu Sep 29, 2016 1:07 pm

No curve yet
Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2477 Postby Blown Away » Thu Sep 29, 2016 1:08 pm

Image
12z Euro... 72 Hours... Cat 1... Making NW Turn... Seems faster than 00z
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2478 Postby wxmann_91 » Thu Sep 29, 2016 1:09 pm

Today's 12Z Euro a bit further east than yesterday's (though identical through 48 hr with the extent/timing of SW dip). Lower heights over SE US which continues the trend from yesterday's runs.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2479 Postby LarryWx » Thu Sep 29, 2016 1:11 pm

The 12Z Euro hour 72 is pretty much right in line with the interpolation of the 0Z Euro between hours 72 and 96 except maybe a tad faster. Also, it is clearly east (~40 miles) of the Euro hour 96 from 12Z yesterday.
Last edited by LarryWx on Thu Sep 29, 2016 1:13 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#2480 Postby Alyono » Thu Sep 29, 2016 1:12 pm

goes stationary for a while between 48 and 72 hours
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