ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[otterlyspicey]

This might be a good time to remind everyone that the farther south this goes, the less far west this will get before being picked up by the trof to the west.

Yes! This! More S means a trade off to less W. This could be good news down the road for the east coast.

[Michele B]

This might be a good time to remind everyone that the farther south this goes, the less far west this will get before being picked up by the trof to the west.

But would it be too far south for the trof to be able to pick it up?

[Fountainguy97]

Really wish that recon flight could get to the center for one more pass. With recent imagery I suspect they would find winds validating an upgrade to a minimum cat 5.

[NWFL56]

I asked an earlier question that must have gotten lost in the fray. Lol. What is the significance of an "Eye temp breaking positive"?

It means the eye temperature (per ADT readout) measured by geostationary satellite is now above 0*C. Like earlier when the eye broke into the off-whites, it shows the eye is continuing to warm, implying continued strengthening. The next breakpoint to watch is when it reaches warm medium grey, which is the warmest shade on BD IR. That will happen when the eye warms beyond 9*C.

Layman's translation clear, round eye that you can see right down to Ocean with little obscurities =warm eye

Got it. Thanks!

[TheDreamTraveler]

Might just be more than a wobble SW we are seeing...

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

This is almost due south... and stalling?

While no models I see forecasted such a dip, the 00 UKMET is the closest:
https://s13.postimg.org/h75v8kobr/ukm2_ ... _gentr.png

Yeah, I took a look at the models as well and only the UKMET has shown it getting this far south. Though I remember the Euro showing it getting pretty far south a few days ago but lately its not showing that.

[SunnyThoughts]

This might be a good time to remind everyone that the farther south this goes, the less far west this will get before being picked up by the trof to the west.

Yes! This! More S means a trade off to less W. This could be good news down the road for the east coast.

Couldn't it also mean, that the longer it stays THAT far south, it might increase the chances that the storm will never feel the weakness and move to the North as it is shown to do sometime tomorrow evening by the models?

[wxmann_91]

This might be a good time to remind everyone that the farther south this goes, the less far west this will get before being picked up by the trof to the west.

But would it be too far south for the trof to be able to pick it up?

I don't think it'll go that far south. I trust the accuracy of the models and the pattern in place. 10-20 years ago though, I'd be thinking about it.

[SouthernBreeze]

This might be a good time to remind everyone that the farther south this goes, the less far west this will get before being picked up by the trof to the west.

Would also mean a longer uninterrupted stretch over warm water before Jamaica

[SouthFLTropics]

This is almost due south... and stalling?

While no models I see forecasted such a dip, the 00 UKMET is the closest:
https://s13.postimg.org/h75v8kobr/ukm2_ ... _gentr.png

Yeah, I took a look at the models as well and only the UKMET has shown it getting this far south. Though I remember the Euro showing it getting pretty far south a few days ago but lately its not showing that.

Was it the Euro runs that dipped South also the ones that showed a possible South Florida hit?

[SapphireSea]

This might be a good time to remind everyone that the farther south this goes, the less far west this will get before being picked up by the trof to the west.

Yes! This! More S means a trade off to less W. This could be good news down the road for the east coast.

This is also true but the problem with that is a slower movement speed as the troughs influence will be much less pronounced the further south Matt goes. This could also spell a much further W progress later on followed by quicker east turn depending on the next troughs timing. A stronger ridge than forecast in the mid term of the forecast 72 96 hours could mean EC impact. On the flip side this will need to get closer than 100 miles to the shore for anything above 25kts to be seen on FL.

[SouthFLTropics]

While no models I see forecasted such a dip, the 00 UKMET is the closest:
https://s13.postimg.org/h75v8kobr/ukm2_ ... _gentr.png

Yeah, I took a look at the models as well and only the UKMET has shown it getting this far south. Though I remember the Euro showing it getting pretty far south a few days ago but lately its not showing that.

Was it the Euro runs that dipped South also the ones that showed a possible South Florida hit?

I just went back and looked...12z run of Euro on Tuesday showed this dip and then later slammed South Florida on a NW heading at 240 hours. That would mean we are now 6 days out from that impact.

[drewschmaltz]

To this amateur it feels like Matthew is out ahead of the guidance. It's stronger deeper and more south. Will the new models initialize correctly? I feel like the intensification has been so rapid that by the time the models are out they are old. I hope we get perfect initializations.

[Yellow Evan]

Honestly I think the NHC goes 140. Remember the 143 pass came after 0z.

[drewschmaltz]

Yeah, I took a look at the models as well and only the UKMET has shown it getting this far south. Though I remember the Euro showing it getting pretty far south a few days ago but lately its not showing that.

Was it the Euro runs that dipped South also the ones that showed a possible South Florida hit?

I just went back and looked...12z run of Euro on Tuesday showed this dip and then later slammed South Florida on a NW heading at 240 hours. That would mean we are now 6 days out from that impact.

Was the northern upper air setup accurate through now?

[SouthFLTropics]

Was it the Euro runs that dipped South also the ones that showed a possible South Florida hit?

I just went back and looked...12z run of Euro on Tuesday showed this dip and then later slammed South Florida on a NW heading at 240 hours. That would mean we are now 6 days out from that impact.

Was the northern upper air setup accurate through now?

I'd say it looks pretty similar.

[Fountainguy97]

I haven't seen anything to allow the NHC to bump it too cat 5. Sure a gust possibly into cat 5 range.... they need some solid proof. If recon is done it'll be a cat 4 only chance of cat 5 IMO is if recon goes once more If they are done may not hit cat 5.

[psyclone]

The good news here is that we are once again within an hour of the NHC's latest thoughts. For Florida interests lets see if they nudge the track westward. Also wondering if a hurricane watch will be issued for eastern cuba...but maybe they'll hold off on that until tomorrow..

[Alyono]

looks to be some undercutting wind shear starting to affect this. This may be why the models insist this will weaken tomorrow.

of course, that shear goes away Sunday, when this starts moving over the very high heat content. I'd be surprised if this is not at least a strong cat 4, with cat 5 likely, for Jamaica

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Hopefully we get one more pass into the strongest winds before 11pm. If again we see winds >140 knots, for sure Cat 5.

[Hammy]

looks to be some undercutting wind shear starting to affect this. This may be why the models insist this will weaken tomorrow.

of course, that shear goes away Sunday, when this starts moving over the very high heat content. I'd be surprised if this is not at least a strong cat 4, with cat 5 likely, for Jamaica

Are you thinking we haven't seen the peak yet?