ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hammy]

155 MPH curse strikes again.

I'm losing my mind.

It's not like this is the last chance it has to strengthen. So MAYBE it's leveled off but it still has a even better environment and higher heat content still to traverse over the weekend.

I don't trust the accuracy sometimes on 155 mph storms though--this will probably peak in the almost 12 hours between flights, probably around 2am, but be kept at 155 only for it to start weakening by the time the next plane arrives.

[gatorcane]

Might just be more than a wobble SW we are seeing...

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[Vinnland]

Might just be more than a wobble SW we are seeing...

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

He's diving SW holy moly

[otterlyspicey]

Might just be more than a wobble SW we are seeing...

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

This is almost due south... and stalling?

[tgenius]

How often (if ever) has a storm actually hit Colombia or South America for that matter?!

[drewschmaltz]

Is Columbia going to get hit with a cat 5? SUPRISE!

[Fountainguy97]

Last frame looks like a change too due south. I suspect that's just a south wobble but SW motion should continue the next few hours before slowing coming to the west

[SouthFLTropics]

Perhaps someone with a better understanding of physics could possibly explain the effects of frictional land interaction on the track of Matthew. Could we be seeing that with South America right now?

[Hammy]

How often (if ever) has a storm actually hit Colombia or South America for that matter?!

Venezuela has gotten a few storms from time to time, mainly fast low-latitude storms. I don't know if Colombia has ever gotten hit with anything, aside from things that have hit the northern peninsula after moving over Venezuela's.

[TimeZone]

I'm losing my mind.

It's not like this is the last chance it has to strengthen. So MAYBE it's leveled off but it still has a even better environment and higher heat content still to traverse over the weekend.

I don't trust the accuracy sometimes on 155 mph storms though--this will probably peak in the almost 12 hours between flights, probably around 2am, but be kept at 155 only for it to start weakening by the time the next plane arrives.

That's the most frustrating part of it all for me.

[wxmann_91]

This might be a good time to remind everyone that the farther south this goes, the less far west this will get before being picked up by the trof to the west.

[Hammy]

Recon mission over?

[dexterlabio]

Euro's southwest dip closer to SA seems to be playing out quite well... I remember some eyebrows raising when the Euro started to show that solution...

[gatorcane]

Might just be more than a wobble SW we are seeing...

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

This is almost due south... and stalling?

While no models I see forecasted such a dip, the 00 UKMET is the closest:

[Evil Jeremy]

I'm growing concerned in Florida. The models continue a slow-but-steady march to the West post-Cuba. Matthew continues to strengthen rapidly, even if it's leveling off now it's a borderline Cat-5 with 2 more days of favorable(ish) conditions. A stronger storm will push further West, and we are already seeing Matthew take his Southern decline a bit more than expected.

Tomorrow, the situation becomes clearer, once we determine where the jump North starts. A westward shift to the cone that I feel will be coming in the next 2 advisories in the 4-5 day range will put Florida in the cone. Not near the center, but enough to get preparations going for a possible major right off the coastline in a few days. Of course, this all depends on the 00z models continuing the west trend, but the models have been impossible to predict this year, so who knows.

[Evil Jeremy]

This might be a good time to remind everyone that the farther south this goes, the less far west this will get before being picked up by the trof to the west.

Alternatively, the more time it needs to travel North, the more time for the Bermuda ridge to build back. That's what the models are suggesting is possible.

[NDG]

Windshear analysis over Matthew is comical, 20-25 knots? Yeah right, it has created its own environment.

[SouthFLTropics]

Might just be more than a wobble SW we are seeing...

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

Look at the outflow north of Matthew flatten out as it bumps up against the ridge. Perhaps his strength is pumping up the ridge to the North???

[EquusStorm]

Not too far from Joan levels of low-latitude-October-major-hurrricane. Bizarre storm for sure.

[NWFL56]

Eye temp has broken positive.

I asked an earlier question that must have gotten lost in the fray. Lol. What is the significance of an "Eye temp breaking positive"?

It means the eye temperature (per ADT readout) measured by geostationary satellite is now above 0*C. Like earlier when the eye broke into the off-whites, it shows the eye is continuing to warm, implying continued strengthening. The next breakpoint to watch is when it reaches warm medium grey, which is the warmest shade on BD IR. That will happen when the eye warms beyond 9*C.

Thanks!