ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[gatorcane]

Ridge is stronger and further west at 144hrs this run too. I think we're going to see a landfall.

Yep the whole recurve has shifted slightly west on the 12Z run. Could be landfall on the outerbanks this run. Closer to Florida on the recurve too, too close for comfort.

[floridasun78]

so starting look that south fl will be safe? but haiti and Dominica will likely get hit hard

[gatorcane]

12Z CMC with a big west shift on its recurve through 84 hours so far.

[Alyono]

UKMET slower and back west

TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW ANALYSED POSITION : 14.2N 65.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142016

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.09.2016 0 14.2N 65.4W 996 58
0000UTC 30.09.2016 12 13.8N 68.3W 989 64
1200UTC 30.09.2016 24 13.0N 69.7W 987 62
0000UTC 01.10.2016 36 12.8N 70.9W 988 59
1200UTC 01.10.2016 48 12.9N 71.8W 989 57
0000UTC 02.10.2016 60 13.1N 72.9W 987 58
1200UTC 02.10.2016 72 13.4N 73.9W 984 57
0000UTC 03.10.2016 84 14.5N 74.5W 980 67
1200UTC 03.10.2016 96 15.9N 74.7W 975 62
0000UTC 04.10.2016 108 17.3N 74.1W 972 67
1200UTC 04.10.2016 120 18.7N 74.0W 977 62
0000UTC 05.10.2016 132 19.7N 73.7W 974 67
1200UTC 05.10.2016 144 20.5N 74.1W 983 61

[SouthFLTropics]

12z CMC is well west of the 00z. Takes it over Central to Western Jamaica.

[La Sirena]

Ridge is stronger and further west at 144hrs this run too. I think we're going to see a landfall.

Sorry if I'm not tracking....where is it showing landfall? I haven't checked the maps yet. Thx!

[chris_fit]

12Z CMC with a big west shift on its recurve through 84 hours so far.

Right over the middle Jamaica @84

[PTrackerLA]

168hrs looks like landfall Cape Hatteras

[La Sirena]

12z CMC is well west of the 00z. Takes it over Central to Western Jamaica.

That's closer to some of the earlier Euro tracks, right?

[sponger]

Yep looks like it could be blocked from escape. So hard to get any reliability this far out but GFS builds back a large ridge fairly quickly. SFL to Maine still in play. We should know a lot more by Sunday. Got Bill Burr tickets for Friday night next week so as much as I love tropical weather, I will root for a fish!

[PTrackerLA]

174 hrs over Dare County, NC

[floridasun78]

i see gfdl want take more into central cuba

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/781496702515675136




 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/781523591200444416

[gatorcane]

HUGE shift west with the CMC by hour 96. After that it shoots it NNE. Still develops a spurious TC to the east that makes no sense which could be influencing the NNE movement:

[chris_fit]

So the 12Z GFS is actually quite a bit WEST than the 00Z Euro - go figure LOL

[Blown Away]

12z GFS landfall OBX... @30-50 W of 06z...

[Alyono]

MU says NYC is no more

[jlauderdal]

So the 12Z GFS is actually quite a bit WEST than the 00Z Euro - go figure LOL

euro has been a couple steps behind the gfs for a few days, lets see where we are in 24 hours and if they get in sync...we are still far out in time as far as any usa strike

[p1nheadlarry]

174 hrs over Dare County, NC

Wonder how strong that it as the surface. OBX gets hit often by hurricanes, but only one storm was over 100 kts since records were taken.

[La Sirena]

So the 12Z GFS is actually quite a bit WEST than the 00Z Euro - go figure LOL

euro has been a couple steps behind the gfs for a few days, lets see where we are in 24 hours and if they get in sync...we are still far out in time as far as any usa strike

Earlier on the Euro had it trending west farther and much slower. So, is the GFS trying to come back toward the original Euro trends?