ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxman57]

That buoy is 360 miles NE of the center. I suspect winds may be not far below TS strength in some of the squalls north of the center now. Will probably become a TS tonight, though the NHC will likely wait for recon tomorrow to upgrade.

I think most likely, this storm will stay east of the U.S. However, I'm not ready to sound the all-clear for Florida or the rest of the East U.S. Coast by any means. We'll be tracking this storm for another 2 weeks...

[emeraldislenc]

Do you think it could have a track likes Hazel in 1954?

[mcheer23]

Do you think it could have a track likes Hazel in 1954?

Anything is possible.

[hurricanefloyd5]

The National Weather Service from my house has issued a bear watch a bear watch is now issued for all of the Caribbean and the entire Gulf Coast for 97 l A Bear watch is now in effect bear watch means this system Bears watching. Haha just a little weather humor

[gatorcane]

Ripping shear still across nearly the entire Caribbean, especially the southern side of the Caribbean:

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicsWatch/status/780504278901207040

[Alyono]

that shear will be gone tomorrow as the upper low lifts out. Shear zone has been lifting northward all day

[wxman57]

Do you think it could have a track likes Hazel in 1954?

I wouldn't rule such a track out, given the uncertainty beyond 7 days. However, I don't think that's the most likely solution. Don't turn your back on it, though.

Here's a screenshot from my workstation. You can see the two buoys 360-400 miles NE and NW of the center.

[emeraldislenc]

Thanks I value your opinion.

[p1nheadlarry]

How are the SSTs in the Bahamas? If it's warm enough, this storm could harness that fuel, and intensify similar to how Joaquin did last year, around the same time. That would be bad news for Florida.

SST's are still very high between the Bahamas and all around Florida into the GOM.

They're toasty off the SE US coast as well, not sure about the potential content (probably not as warm deep down as usual but still supportive of a hurricane if it ever followed the GS on a recurve, just speculation)

[p1nheadlarry]

Well, this is shaping up to be quite an interesting system. Lots of model support for development, solid appearance on satellite, and an abnormal track setting up. Usually, you don't get "hard right turns" out of systems until October and November. But many models hinting at just such a turn down the road for 97 - it's only a question of when said turn begins. Like I said, very interesting scenario setting up.

Well technically when the turn occurs it will be October...But I know you were meaning late October or November. I wouldn't say it is all that odd to get this turn this early in October. Floyd was turned north in September and Charley was turned north and then northeast in August.

You're right about Charley. But that was one heck of an anomalous trough for August! As for Floyd, you're also right ... but the starting point of the turn was much further north than where 97 is forecast to start its "hard right" in the southern Caribbean. In any event, it'll be interesting to watch from here in South Florida. It's encouraging to see so many models start the turn far enough east to avoid bothering us. But we're still pretty far out in time so I'm not banking on any scenario just yet.

Charlie and Donna were similar in track outside of latitude, no?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Pretty impressive structure for just an invest, reminds me of Tomas.

[cycloneye]

Pretty impressive structure for just an invest, reminds me of Tomas.

http://i.imgur.com/4cSTBqp.jpg

And at the same area.

[Kazmit]

that shear will be gone tomorrow as the upper low lifts out. Shear zone has been lifting northward all day

Indeed. The shear is going away in most of the Caribbean as shown by this tendency map. There's an area of decreasing shear right in the area that then-to-be Matthew will run into. It's nicely set up for significant intensification.

[abajan]

Our met office has issued this weather bulletin. (If the page doesn't load, try this one and then click the link in the scrolling text near the top of the screen.)

By the way, I have no idea why the first URL has "Planet of Apes".

[Bones2016]

That buoy is 360 miles NE of the center. I suspect winds may be not far below TS strength in some of the squalls north of the center now. Will probably become a TS tonight, though the NHC will likely wait for recon tomorrow to upgrade.

I think most likely, this storm will stay east of the U.S. However, I'm not ready to sound the all-clear for Florida or the rest of the East U.S. Coast by any means. We'll be tracking this storm for another 2 weeks...

What? I just spent $450 on supplies at Home Depot because of models going through Florida and the hype from Tony Mainolfi saying Florida should watch this.

[Rail Dawg]

Holy cow we've all seen October Hurricanes strike the U.S. but through my years we tended to start to rest on our laurels after Sep 30.

I am piloting several times towards Venezuela and other countries near there in October and will see if I can again get some almost-live shots to post here like what was done for Hermine.

[sunnyday]

Passing through SE Fl today, I happened to catch a local TV met showing a visual of the storm going directly north many, many miles east of S. Fla, and he said the storm is not going anywhere close to that area and won't be a threat there. I guess he can predict more than 10 days in advance and be accurate in doing it. I thought nothing was set in stone yet....
Is he correct?

[robbielyn]

That buoy is 360 miles NE of the center. I suspect winds may be not far below TS strength in some of the squalls north of the center now. Will probably become a TS tonight, though the NHC will likely wait for recon tomorrow to upgrade.

I think most likely, this storm will stay east of the U.S. However, I'm not ready to sound the all-clear for Florida or the rest of the East U.S. Coast by any means. We'll be tracking this storm for another 2 weeks...

What? I just spent $450 on supplies at Home Depot because of models going through Florida and the hype from Tony Mainolfi saying Florida should watch this.

think of it as an investment. it will come in handy sooner or later. Anyways the forecast is very tentative at this point so keep watching. Wxman57 said most likely but not definitely. until the wave turns into a depression and models get a better handle on it, nothing is off the table. cant trust anything beyond 5 days anyways as it has been mentioned over and over. and season not over yet either so dont be too disappointed you might still use it this season but hopefully not.

[robbielyn]

Holy cow we've all seen October Hurricanes strike the U.S. but through my years we tended to start to rest on our laurels after Sep 30.

I am piloting several times towards Venezuela and other countries near there in October and will see if I can again get some almost-live shots to post here like what was done for Hermine.

that would be really great. I appreciated you doing that during Hermine for all of us.