ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[wxman57]

NASA model with landfall in South Florida

http://portal.nccs.nasa.gov/cgi-fp/fp_wx.cgi?region=tropatl&dtg=2016092900&prod=6precs&model=fp&level=sfc&tau=000&&region_old=&dtg_old=2016092900&prod_old=6precs&model_old=fp&level_old=sfc&tau_old=000&&loop=0

Ok, I just watched the animated loop for this run. Not sure how good this model is, but if that were to come to fruition (it almost certainly shouldn't) this would be a biblical rain event for FL

Here's a nice write up on the accuracy of the NASA model - apparently did quite well on track and intensity with Sandy.

https://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/research/atmosphericassim/tracking_hurricanes/

I suggest looking at previous runs on that page. Yesterday, it took it into the central Gulf heading for the western FL Panhandle.

[Frank2]

Latest spaghetti run (click on Storm 14):

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots

[ConvergenceZone]

Thanks wxman, and I agree with you. Out to sea looking much more likely now, but still not 100% certain

[1900hurricane]

This is a little old now wit the 12Z GFS running, but here's a height comparison between the 00Z runs of the GFS and ECMWF at tau 168. Still lots of differenced between the two. Matthew may still slip away to the northeast once it crosses the Greater Antilles regardless, but all the features beyond day 5 are not locked down yet.

[lando]

GFS decently more SW than 06z

[lando]

very similar to 06z at 54hrs, looks slow

[AutoPenalti]

Has the 12Z been ingested with the latest G-IV?

[terstorm1012]

Has the 12Z been ingested with the lastest G-IV?

I believe that won't happen until this evening.

[Alyono]

18Z should be the first run with some G-IV data

[lando]

crawling NW at 72hrs

[1900hurricane]

Trend at 12Z October 3rd over the past 48 hours:

[Slughitter3]

So I'm very new at this but just want to ask. The GFS 12z appears to initiate the storm at 1004mb, if I'm reading it correctly, how much of a difference does that make since Matt is already down to 995? Thanks

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS is slightly more west on the recurve through 108 hours.

[chris_fit]

12Z GFS takes it right over the largest Mountains in Cuba...

[PTrackerLA]

Bit of a west shift at 120hrs on the 12z, could have big implications for NC this run we will have to see.

[OntarioEggplant]

Through 120 hrs this GFS run looks much more like older runs of the Euro with that SW dip near Colombia and passing very close to Eastern Jamaica and across Eastern Cuba.

[gatorcane]

Looks like about a 50 mile shift west on the 12Z GFS. Hour 126 below, closer to South Florida on this pass but still far away not to cause to many problems - if it shifts west a few more times, South Florida would be under the gun:

[chris_fit]

It's really moving fast once it gets offshore Cuba through 132 hours

[centuryv58]

Bit of a west shift at 120hrs on the 12z, could have big implications for NC this run we will have to see.

Maybe why Accuweather says SE FL has TS gusts next week. Who knows.

[PTrackerLA]

Ridge is stronger and further west at 144hrs this run too. I think we're going to see a landfall.