ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Ntxw]

Eye temp has broken positive.

I asked an earlier question that must have gotten lost in the fray. Lol. What is the significance of an "Eye temp breaking positive"?

It means the eye temperature (per ADT readout) measured by geostationary satellite is now above 0*C. Like earlier when the eye broke into the off-whites, it shows the eye is continuing to warm, implying continued strengthening. The next breakpoint to watch is when it reaches warm medium grey, which is the warmest shade on BD IR. That will happen when the eye warms beyond 9*C.

Layman's translation clear, round eye that you can see right down to Ocean with little obscurities =warm eye

[stormreader]

seems to have increased forward wsw motion again.. this is going to be the key night it will pass all the models turning points tonight if it does not slow down and turn... then everything else is open..

Wow!

[Aric Dunn]

seems to have increased forward wsw motion again.. this is going to be the key night it will pass all the models turning points tonight if it does not slow down and turn... then everything else is open..

Yep, as Alyono pointed out stronger="more west" while in the Caribbean. Aric is it pumping up the ridge in your opinion?

I was thinking it very well might be especially given the outflow is not uniform and clearly a northerly jet.

[TheDreamTraveler]

seems to have increased forward wsw motion again.. this is going to be the key night it will pass all the models turning points tonight if it does not slow down and turn... then everything else is open..

Worst part is that any slight deviations will have impacts down the road. If this were most other situations it wouldn't really matter all that much. But the pattern up ahead of Matthew is very complicated.

Another thing too is the fact none of the computer models had it anywhere near this strong right now. So it might really throw a wrench in with the following computer runs now.

[AutoPenalti]

Again, I do apologize for making such a crappy observation. I' have a bias of having storms go OTS and pose no danger to anyone (which unfortunately already has). I' understand lots of guests view this board for updates. I'll keep the biases to myself. I do apologize once again for angering anyone in the process.

[Hammy]

seems to have increased forward wsw motion again.. this is going to be the key night it will pass all the models turning points tonight if it does not slow down and turn... then everything else is open..

Worst part is that any slight deviations will have impacts down the road. If this were most other situations it wouldn't really matter all that much. But the pattern up ahead of Matthew is very complicated.

Another thing too is the fact none of the computer models had it anywhere near this strong right now. So it might really throw a wrench in with the following computer runs now.

So I guess I was right not to believe the model runs, but for the complete opposite reason...

[wxman57]

I don't expect to see any signs of a north of west motion (a turn) until tomorrow afternoon/evening. That should take the center northward over eastern Jamaica on Monday.

[MaineWeatherNut]

Again, I do apologize for making such a crappy observation. I' have a bias of having storms go OTS and pose no danger to anyone (which unfortunately already has). I' understand lots of guests view this board for updates. I'll keep the biases to myself. I do apologize once again for angering anyone in the process.

ALL of us would like nothing better then to see this storm head out to sea and bother no one else. However we have a very serious situation developing here and it's no time for ANYONE to be letting their guard down. While no one should be using this forum or any other forum for making Life or Death decisions some might and if they see someone post an all clear for an area it could lead them to let their guard down.

[p1nheadlarry]

I don't expect to see any signs of a north of west motion (a turn) until tomorrow afternoon/evening. That should take the center northward over eastern Jamaica on Monday.

I hope not, that's the worst thing that can possibly happen

[1900hurricane]

seems to have increased forward wsw motion again.. this is going to be the key night it will pass all the models turning points tonight if it does not slow down and turn... then everything else is open..

Worst part is that any slight deviations will have impacts down the road. If this were most other situations it wouldn't really matter all that much. But the pattern up ahead of Matthew is very complicated.

Another thing too is the fact none of the computer models had it anywhere near this strong right now. So it might really throw a wrench in with the following computer runs now.

Global models have benefitted with increased grid resolution over the past several years, but I wonder if they are not quite capable of resolving Matthew's core. The IR canopy is one of about an average sized storm, but recon has shown that the core is tiny. The sharp pressure gradients extending out from the eye is what I imagine is maintaining such strong winds, even with a relatively high central pressure.

[p1nheadlarry]

seems to have increased forward wsw motion again.. this is going to be the key night it will pass all the models turning points tonight if it does not slow down and turn... then everything else is open..

Worst part is that any slight deviations will have impacts down the road. If this were most other situations it wouldn't really matter all that much. But the pattern up ahead of Matthew is very complicated.

Another thing too is the fact none of the computer models had it anywhere near this strong right now. So it might really throw a wrench in with the following computer runs now.

Global models have benefitted with increased grid resolution over the past several years, but I wonder if they are not quite capable of resolving Matthew's core. The IR canopy is one of about an average sized storm, but recon has shown that the core is tiny. The sharp pressure gradients extending out from the eye is what I imagine is maintaining such strong winds, even with a relatively high central pressure.

http://i.imgur.com/PqgEiu0.png

That makes sense

[Hammy]

Eye looking better on radar that it ever has.

[CrazyC83]

It seems to be moving more SW or even SSW now. I know some models suggested it would essentially stall out before the turn, maybe that is happening?

[tatertawt24]

Never mind what I said about the CDG. Looks better than ever now.

[Ntxw]

Warning

Alright folks. Florida is not in the all clear as of now by any stretch of the imagination, and the poster has rescinded the post. Lets return to discussing Matthew.

Thanks,

[tropicwatch]

Based on the latest VDM compared to the 8pm advisory location. Matthew might be just wobbling around and potentially going stationary. Next pass could be telling.

[Michele B]

This may be the best Matthew looks in it's entire life, and we don't even have daytime visible satellite to fully appreciate it's beauty. I think I can really enjoy it right now, knowing it currently (likely) isn't destroying or hurting anyone at the moment while appreciating it's meteorological beauty.

I think I can totally agree with this statement. I appreciate the form and power of this storm. Like you, however, I also PRAY that there is no more loss of life due to Matt.

[gatorcane]

Pretty decent SW dip in progress looking at the Floater

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[MaineWeatherNut]

Looks like Matthew is Apologizing to the S2K community for all of the Weak Sheared systems lately and is determined to give us all a great performance... Only issue is he didn't get the memo that we would rather be tracking him out to sea where he can't be bothering anyone!

[1900hurricane]

Woof.