ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[tolakram]

6Z GEFS

[wxman57]

Just saw the 00Z EC ensembles - they shifted way east. Only 5-6 members take it to the Gulf now, vs. 24 on the previous run. Model consensus is growing for a track between Haiti & Jamaica then north through Bahamas. Still a threat to the Mid Atlantic Coast to New England, but that threat may be decreasing a little due to the current more northerly track of Matthew (than was forecast).

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Good Morning everyone.

Per Model Trend and recent recon fix, it appears that the threat to FL/GULF appears to be decreasing. Matthew is a little north of forecast points and both EURO and GFS keep it a decent distance away from the FL Coast. NC is another story however. Chances of a stall around the bahamas and then a west push appear to be decreasing per GFS and EURO.

Not buying that here in Florida. Until GFS trends east nothing has changed as its been consistent with a position just east of the northern Bahamas and it has slowed a bit. The Euro has been very inconsistent and still shows an almost stall above the DR with a really strong ridge building in which, if the storm had been in the GFS position, would have driven Matt towards Florida. Too early to tell yet one way or the other.

Only if you give credence to the Euro which I'm trusting less and less because of its inconsistency. Havent seen the UKMET but all other models stay near the GFS with the HWRF trending west and the GFDL pointing towards Florida. The GFS ensembles are slightly to the west of the operational and even most of the Euro ensembles are still way west of the operational albeit trending east.

[tolakram]

0z EPS

[La Sirena]

0z EPS

[im g]http://i.imgur.com/xtAesPP.gif[/img]

That split on the model consensus is interesting.

[chris_fit]

Here is a screen shot of all the 00z and 06z models. Still a wide range of solutionsfor sure. That being said, EURO and GFS keep it well off FL's coast, for now.

[gatorcane]

NASA model with landfall in South Florida

http://portal.nccs.nasa.gov/cgi-fp/fp_wx.cgi?region=tropatl&dtg=2016092900&prod=6precs&model=fp&level=sfc&tau=000&&region_old=&dtg_old=2016092900&prod_old=6precs&model_old=fp&level_old=sfc&tau_old=000&&loop=0

[chris_fit]

NASA model with landfall in South Florida

http://portal.nccs.nasa.gov/cgi-fp/fp_w ... 00&&loop=0

Link doesnt work for me

[tolakram]

It doesn't like coming from external sites. Hit return again in the URL box or copy and paste to load.

[LarryWx]

IF Matthew is really missing forecast points to the north, then the threat to FL is almost definitely decreasing from what it was a couple of days ago. Also, look at the eastward shift in the EPS. Does anyone disagree with the idea that the threat to FL has decreased? If you disagree, why? This doesn't mean no threat. This means a clearly lower threat than the rather high threat of a couple of days ago. By the way, climo for this time of year for a storm in Matthew's current position clearly supports only a low threat to FL.

[chris_fit]

It doesn't like coming from external sites. Hit return again in the URL box or copy and paste to load.

Thanks! That worked

[CourierPR]

NASA model with landfall in South Florida

http://portal.nccs.nasa.gov/cgi-fp/fp_wx.cgi?region=tropatl&dtg=2016092900&prod=6precs&model=fp&level=sfc&tau=000&&region_old=&dtg_old=2016092900&prod_old=6precs&model_old=fp&level_old=sfc&tau_old=000&&loop=0

Can we give this model any credence?

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Just saw the 00Z EC ensembles - they shifted way east. Only 5-6 members take it to the Gulf now, vs. 24 on the previous run. Model consensus is growing for a track between Haiti & Jamaica then north through Bahamas. Still a threat to the Mid Atlantic Coast to New England, but that threat may be decreasing a little due to the current more northerly track of Matthew (than was forecast).

So let me see. The Euro ensembles are centered right over me in Florida and the GFS ensembles are centered maybe 250 miles off my coast most with a major hurricane and all of this 6 days or more out where the average errors are well in excess of 240 miles. Also, keep in mind that all of these models have accounted for any northern position shifts. Excuse me if I'm not feeling all warm and fuzzy here.

[chris_fit]

NASA model with landfall in South Florida

http://portal.nccs.nasa.gov/cgi-fp/fp_wx.cgi?region=tropatl&dtg=2016092900&prod=6precs&model=fp&level=sfc&tau=000&&region_old=&dtg_old=2016092900&prod_old=6precs&model_old=fp&level_old=sfc&tau_old=000&&loop=0

Ok, I just watched the animated loop for this run. Not sure how good this model is, but if that were to come to fruition (it almost certainly shouldn't) this would be a biblical rain event for FL

[wxman57]

First of all, the EC ensembles are NOT centered over Florida, they're well east of Florida now. The trend over the past 3-4 runs has been eastward, with the mean to Key West, then Miami, then east of Miami, and now central Bahamas. Florida threat does appear to be decreasing. I plotted all models, including the 50 EC and 20 Canadian & GFS members, along with all dynamic and other models to compare yesterday to today (below). The EC ensembles are in purple, GFS in green, and Canadian in light blue (hard to see). You can clearly see a big shift eastward in the EC ensembles. I'm not ready to declare Florida as "out of the woods", but if I lived there then I'd be feeling a bit better today.

[Dean4Storms]

IF Matthew is really missing forecast points to the north, then the threat to FL is almost definitely decreasing from what it was a couple of days ago. Also, look at the eastward shift in the EPS. Does anyone disagree with the idea that the threat to FL has decreased? If you disagree, why? This doesn't mean no threat. This means a clearly lower threat than the rather high threat of a couple of days ago. By the way, climo for this time of year for a storm in Matthew's current position clearly supports only a low threat to FL.

You could say the threat has decreased a bit based on model trends but like NHC states on their 5 day track position, the errors average up to 240 miles. I'd say if we see an error it is to the west and if it is anywhere near just the average and not even greater that could put FL and even the Gulf into play. Take into account that at 5 days the NHC is following model consensus, so when I look at model consensus out 5 days you must also look within that cone of 240 miles to see where even they think remains a threat.

[terstorm1012]

pretty amazed at the slow crawl up through the Bahamas and the East Coast all the models seem to be suggesting. To think we might be going into the long weekend next week still talking about where Matthew might go is pretty amazing to me.

Bad for everyone if it verifies. 6zGFS would be a coastal erosion disaster for the whole east coast. ECWMF from 0z is a disaster for the Bahamas

[alienstorm]

The same way the shift east as happen they can go back to west, in addition these storms have a mind of their own. The only time we are safe in Fla is once it has passed out latitude. Not saying that the models are wrong or right just let keep looking and waiting.

[jdjaguar]

The same way the shift east as happen they can go back to west, in addition these storms have a mind of their own. The only time we are safe in Fla is once it has passed out latitude. Not saying that the models are wrong or right just let keep looking and waiting.

While rare, sometimes they loop back.

Jean 2004

[toad strangler]

The same way the shift east as happen they can go back to west, in addition these storms have a mind of their own. The only time we are safe in Fla is once it has passed out latitude. Not saying that the models are wrong or right just let keep looking and waiting.

These storms don't have a mind of their own. Sometimes they are affected by the most subtle surrounding conditions and especially when there is no prevailing steering mechanism. Ala Jeanne ...