ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[AtlanticWind]

wow look at the ridge that just built to the north at 168 hours. the 12z run had a low form now the opposite.

really. its about to turn back nw ..

Just looking at that blocking high on this run , could stall

[WeatherEmperor]

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[Aric Dunn]

192 hours ridge building even more it slowing down a lot. . trough lifting north of the ohio valley not digging this run.. what the hell.. lol

[HurricaneFrances04]

In reality this isn't that far different from what the Euro has been showing the last day or two. Only difference is the turn happens earlier in the Caribbean.

[AtlanticWind]

Drifting north, blocked

[AutoPenalti]

Wow, this thing just stalled out, a west shift perhaps?

[HurricaneFrances04]

The 0Z from Tuesday showed the same blocking high- http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... mer_11.png
Compared to today's 0Z- http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... amer_9.png

[wxmann_91]

The signal for Southeast ridging to develop in post Day 7 is strong from both the Euro and GFS (been for a few runs). The question is will Matthew be far enough north/east by then for it to matter. Nearby ULL's will of course make the situation even more complex.

(EDIT to remove the Northeast blocking which has NOT been consistent... my bad)

[Aric Dunn]

The 0Z from Tuesday showed the same blocking high- http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... mer_11.png
Compared to today's 0Z- http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... amer_9.png

yeah but notice how much more expansive the ridge is this run and the trough over the plains is flat and lifting north vs digging like yesterday.

[AtlanticWind]

Stalled at 216

[AutoPenalti]

Where did the trough go at Hr 192

[chaser1]

The 0Z from Tuesday showed the same blocking high- http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... mer_11.png
Compared to today's 0Z- http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... amer_9.png

yeah but notice how much more expansive the ridge is this run and the trough over the plains is flat and lifting north vs digging like yesterday.

Yeah but what your both forgetting is that the a trough over Greenland has somehow afixed a tractor beam onto Matthew
This feels like "model-waterboarding" lol

[Aric Dunn]

Stalled at 216

the trough over the great lakes at 216 is lifting out even more. nothing to pick it up ridging should build behind that trough even further and turn this thing nw to wnw..

[chaser1]

Stalled at 216

the trough over the great lakes at 216 is lifting out even more. nothing to pick it up ridging should build behind that trough even further and turn this thing nw to wnw..

One would think, right?

[HurricaneFrances04]

I still can't get over the difference between Euro and GFS at 120 hours. The divergence happens after 72 hours it looks like.

[Aric Dunn]

at 240 a magic trough re appears. lol out to sea..

[AtlanticWind]

Picked up at 240

[HurricaneFrances04]

0Z Canadian is even faster than the GFS. Has Matthew in the Central Bahamas while the Euro has it south of Port Au Prince, in 120 hours.

[AutoPenalti]

...and then where in the world did that trough come from at 240??

[1900hurricane]

...and then where in the world did that trough come from at 240??

Looks like a diving jet streak coming down the back side of the Quebec closed low is helping to re-amplify the trough.