ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[CourierPR]

Just a reminder to everyone, but S. Florida is a very low probability scenario right now, and one that would only transpire after 240 hr. You can keep asking about S. Florida, but there'll be a 99% chance it'll be east.

So you are 99% certain of Matthew passing east of S. FL? That is an extremely bold and irresponsible statement at this point.

[WeatherEmperor]

I would say a direct landfall is unlikely...but bad weather impacts would be more likely. I think most could agree to that


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[stormreader]

NHC official forecast track. Decide for yourselves what the threat is for Fl for a major hurricane given this info at this time.

[wxmann_91]

Just a reminder to everyone, but S. Florida is a very low probability scenario right now, and one that would only transpire after 240 hr. You can keep asking about S. Florida, but there'll be a 99% chance it'll be east.

So you are 99% certain of Matthew passing east of S. FL? That is an extremely bold and irresponsible statement at this point.

Show me a single reliable global model that makes landfall in S. Florida within 9 days, and I will retract my statement.

After 9 days, I can't guarantee anything.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Ok so the Euro runs soon, so who is the trend west corner, or will it continue the east trend.

[HurricaneFrances04]

NHC official forecast track. Decide for yourselves what the threat is for Fl for a major hurricane given this info at this time.

I'll get back to you in 5-7 days.

[floridasun78]

my weatherman here south fl say we know by sat to sunday if we close hurr or not

[SFLcane]

Just a reminder to everyone, but S. Florida is a very low probability scenario right now, and one that would only transpire after 240 hr. You can keep asking about S. Florida, but there'll be a 99% chance it'll be east.

So you are 99% certain of Matthew passing east of S. FL? That is an extremely bold and irresponsible statement at this point.

Show me a single reliable global model that makes landfall in S. Florida within 9 days, and I will retract my statement.

After 9 days, I can't guarantee anything.

9 days? There is no reliable model in a 9-10 forecast! Its anyones guess if Mathew comes close to Florida. We cant even trust 2-3 days.

[sancholopez]

I have been on this board for a long time. Im not going to name any names of the trusted mets who provide valuable service and their time here, BUTTTT, when I see them say this far out, that it is going to 99% do this or that, I chuckle. I have seen the same unnamed mets this far out screw the pooch on what a storm may or may not do. I sure hope they are right though...

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Going to crash work in the morning, will check what the Euro shows then night all.

[Bocadude85]

Just a reminder to everyone, but S. Florida is a very low probability scenario right now, and one that would only transpire after 240 hr. You can keep asking about S. Florida, but there'll be a 99% chance it'll be east.

So you are 99% certain of Matthew passing east of S. FL? That is an extremely bold and irresponsible statement at this point.

Show me a single reliable global model that makes landfall in S. Florida within 9 days, and I will retract my statement.

After 9 days, I can't guarantee anything.

6Z Monday GFS had landfall in the Dominican Republic, skip 2 1/2 days forward and landfall is now in eastern Cuba. A distance of 150-200 miles west of the 6z forecast.The 0z GFS is about 150 miles offshore S.Fla. So theoretically 2 1/2 days from now could easily show a farther west landfall and Florida would certainly be at risk of a direct hit. Is this likely? Probably not but I would not say it has a less then one percent chance of happening.

[wxmann_91]

So you are 99% certain of Matthew passing east of S. FL? That is an extremely bold and irresponsible statement at this point.

Show me a single reliable global model that makes landfall in S. Florida within 9 days, and I will retract my statement.

After 9 days, I can't guarantee anything.

9 days? There is no reliable model in a 9-10 forecast! Its anyones guess if Mathew comes close to Florida. We cant even trust 2-3 days.

The 500mb pattern is pretty murky past ~Day 6 but the spread of 500mb solutions past that timeframe would steer Matthew north away from Florida through ~Day 9. The reliable global models have been fairly consistent in that, at least.

Some of y'all get really antsy upon mentioning Florida, geez...

[Ntxw]

Alright folks lets get back to talking about model runs, feel free to post images of what they show and lay off a bit on the back and forth about extrapolation.

Euro will run pretty soon so sit tight and keep the model discussion progressive.

[Hurrilurker]

Those Mountains over E Cuba are going to rip this thing apart.

Worst case (assuming it doesn't go farther west into the GOM) is probably if it shoots the gap between Cuba and Hispaniola. Will still get some weakening from land interaction on the periphery but if the core stays over that warm water it's going to be very dangerous heading north through there towards FL/EC.

[fci]

so this mean could see cone over most south fl by sat that make people notice alot and get news here hype system that good and bad

I don't ever find the "hype" bad when there is a possible threat.
Not sure why people get critical about it (not implying that you did so here).
There are those that complain that the media isn't informing people and at the same time people complaining that they are scaring people.
Can't have it both ways.... (off my soap box, pet peeve of mine).....

[lalearner]

I know it's not a hurricane model, but the latest NAM sure could throw a wrench in things....

[fci]

Just a reminder to everyone, but S. Florida is a very low probability scenario right now, and one that would only transpire after 240 hr. You can keep asking about S. Florida, but there'll be a 99% chance it'll be east.

So you are 99% certain of Matthew passing east of S. FL? That is an extremely bold and irresponsible statement at this point.

Show me a single reliable global model that makes landfall in S. Florida within 9 days, and I will retract my statement.

After 9 days, I can't guarantee anything.

Watch Levi Cowan's video from tonight that shows the compilation of 51 Euro runs where there are some runs everywhere from 200 miles east to directly at South Florida to into the Eastern Gulf.
Personally, I expect it to pass well to the East but 99% sure is absurd.

[Bocadude85]

I wonder if the 0Z GFDL is really all that unrealistic? It shows the wsw dip and the northward turn..just further west.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfdl&region=14L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2016092818&fh=126&xpos=0&ypos=558

[WeatherEmperor]

I wonder if the 0Z GFDL is really all that unrealistic? It shows the wsw dip and the northward turn..just further west.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfdl&region=14L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2016092818&fh=126&xpos=0&ypos=558

This is why florida has to keep watching matthew. Until this model and the Euro shift east for good we have to keep watching


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[1900hurricane]

GEFS is unfazed.