ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[WeatherEmperor]

Where is Alyono? I need the 0z Ukmet.....


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[Miami Storm Tracker]

Did the GFS run finish, or is it still running, curious to see where at the end of the run it puts the storm.

[Alyono]

UKMET windshield wipers back to the east. This model may be the worst out of them all given its total lack of consistency

TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW ANALYSED POSITION : 13.7N 62.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142016

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.09.2016 0 13.7N 62.3W 1005 38
1200UTC 29.09.2016 12 14.2N 65.2W 999 53
0000UTC 30.09.2016 24 14.2N 67.5W 990 60
1200UTC 30.09.2016 36 13.6N 69.1W 987 62
0000UTC 01.10.2016 48 13.2N 70.2W 983 63
1200UTC 01.10.2016 60 13.2N 70.5W 981 65
0000UTC 02.10.2016 72 13.6N 71.3W 980 68
1200UTC 02.10.2016 84 14.3N 71.9W 980 65
0000UTC 03.10.2016 96 15.5N 72.2W 975 64
1200UTC 03.10.2016 108 16.8N 71.9W 970 68
0000UTC 04.10.2016 120 18.7N 72.0W 992 41
1200UTC 04.10.2016 132 20.0N 71.9W 998 46
0000UTC 05.10.2016 144 20.6N 71.5W 991 48

[meriland23]

It's running almost identical to 18z

[p1nheadlarry]

Did the GFS run finish, or is it still running, curious to see where at the end of the run it puts the storm.

Currently at 210 hrs, about 200 nm SE of Boston or more. Closest approach to the CONUS was of course Hatteras.

[stormreader]

another thing is are the models eroding the ridge more than it probably be eroded but the erosion is later causing a later recurve right into central\western Cuba right into Florida like a lot of the Euro ensembles are showing

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Good chance you'll really see the danger if as you say the storm migrates further west and crosses central to W Cuba. Enhanced ridging in short term (Bermuda High a little stronger than forecast). Long term don't know. If Betmuda High is stronger it would aid in the flattening out of the trough to its west and providing for that blocking ridge and forecast slowing of storm. Could even be a stall or a loop as storm waits for weakness to arrive and future track north. I think that is most likely. But could be possible that the storm drifts out into the GOM waiting for the weakness. Less likely, but possible, I think.

[ronyan]

Did the GFS run finish, or is it still running, curious to see where at the end of the run it puts the storm.

It's moving ENE @ 204 hr far out to sea, not sure I see the reasoning for that much of an eastward movement.

[wxmann_91]

Did the GFS run finish, or is it still running, curious to see where at the end of the run it puts the storm.

Way OTS thanks to stronger troughing east of New England (trending towards the Euro in that aspect).

You can see the GFS output here:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

[ronyan]

It's running almost identical to 18z

It's actually diverging a lot from 18z after 200 hrs.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Thanks not that I am not concerned for others, but how close to S. FLA did it get, or did we take a hit?

[sma10]

UKMET windshield wipers back to the east. This model may be the worst out of them all given its total lack of consistency

TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW ANALYSED POSITION : 13.7N 62.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142016

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.09.2016 0 13.7N 62.3W 1005 38
1200UTC 29.09.2016 12 14.2N 65.2W 999 53
0000UTC 30.09.2016 24 14.2N 67.5W 990 60
1200UTC 30.09.2016 36 13.6N 69.1W 987 62
0000UTC 01.10.2016 48 13.2N 70.2W 983 63
1200UTC 01.10.2016 60 13.2N 70.5W 981 65
0000UTC 02.10.2016 72 13.6N 71.3W 980 68
1200UTC 02.10.2016 84 14.3N 71.9W 980 65
0000UTC 03.10.2016 96 15.5N 72.2W 975 64
1200UTC 03.10.2016 108 16.8N 71.9W 970 68
0000UTC 04.10.2016 120 18.7N 72.0W 992 41
1200UTC 04.10.2016 132 20.0N 71.9W 998 46
0000UTC 05.10.2016 144 20.6N 71.5W 991 48

Wow, way east. Into DR not Haiti. And slooooow moving.

[Hurricaneman]

Thanks not that I am not concerned for others, but how close to S. FLA did it get, or did we take a hit?

200mi from south Florida on this run

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Thanks so much Hurricaneman close call.

[WeatherEmperor]

Sigh.....0z Ukmet. I believe Avila was referring to this when he ssid interesting days are ahead in the 11pm disco.....Just unreal


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[wxmann_91]

Just a reminder to everyone, but S. Florida is a very low probability scenario right now, and one that would only transpire after 240 hr. You can keep asking about S. Florida, but there'll be a 99% chance it'll be east.

[Alyono]

Just a reminder to everyone, but S. Florida is a very low probability scenario right now, and one that would only transpire after 240 hr. You can keep asking about S. Florida, but there'll be a 99% chance it'll be east.

it's not a 99% chance of a miss of Florida based upon the ensembles. It may be closer to a 70% chance of a miss of Florida. However, your point remains, a Florida hit is unlikely

[Hurricaneman]

Thanks so much Hurricaneman close call.

and as always I wouldn't feel comfortable until its at 26.5N heading north, if that happens then you can say all clear

[Hurricaneman]

Lets see what the GFS ensembles show and the Euro and its ensembles

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Could not agree more Hurricaneman,

Looks like someone here has a crystal ball that know 100 % it will miss Lol.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Any GFS run beyond 168 hours is fantasy. Just a few days ago it had it in the Gulf, then east of Bermuda, now Canada.

Even at 168 hours we are looking at huge discrepancies between the Euro and GFS. The former has it in the SE Bahamas, while the latter has it well east of Jacksonville, FL.