ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

My visible link from a week ago is still in the right spot. Looks to be finding some better conditions.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=27&lon=-65&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=7&mapcolor=gray

[EquusStorm]

IF it doesn't reintensify, the NHC forecast looks to be closer to right than the models this time... but it looks a lot better this morning and still shows organization in microwave imagery. Could be in for a surprise in the next 72 hours or so... or it could totally falter and fall apart. Ah, the life of tropical cyclone intensity forecasters.

[cycloneye]

Plane is flying.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
1100 AM AST TUE OCT 11 2016

Nicole's cloud pattern has improved this morning, with several
bands of convection wrapping around the center. Recent microwave
imagery has revealed a well-defined low-level eye feature and there
are hints of a ragged banding eye forming in last few visible
satellite pictures. Based on the increase in organization the
initial intensity is increased to 55 kt, which is in agreement with
a Dvorak estimate from SAB. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is currently en route to investigate Nicole, and the data
they collect should provide a better estimate of the cyclone
intensity and size this afternoon.

The shear that has been plaguing Nicole during the past several
days has weakened, and is expected to remain low during the next
day or so. This, along with warm waters along the forecast track,
should allow for strengthening during the 36 to 48 hours, and Nicole
is predicted to become a hurricane later today or tonight. Later in
the forecast period, some weakening is predicted due to cooler
waters and increasing shear, but Nicole is expected to become a
powerful extratropical cyclone over the North Atlantic. The new NHC
intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous advisory,
and is closest to the SHIPS and GFDL model guidance.

The tropical storm is moving north-northwestward at about 4 kt.
Nicole is forecast to turn northward into a break in the subtropical
ridge that is being caused by a mid-latitude trough that is
currently passing to the north of Bermuda. As Nicole approaches
Bermuda, it will reach the mid-latitude westerly flow, which should
cause a turn toward the northeast and some increase in forward
speed. The track guidance has come into much better agreement on
this scenario since yesterday, and the updated NHC track forecast
is near the middle of the now tightly clustered guidance.

A Hurricane Warning will likely be required for Bermuda this
afternoon.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 27.3N 65.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 27.7N 66.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 28.6N 66.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 30.2N 66.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 32.2N 65.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 36.8N 60.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 15/1200Z 40.5N 55.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 16/1200Z 41.8N 53.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Hurricaneman]

An actual eye seems to be forming in the center, I have a feeling recon is going to find a hurricane here

[USTropics]

Certainly looks like Nicole will attain hurricane status soon:

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 111707
AF303 0115A NICOLE HDOB 27 20161011
165900 2833N 06733W 8425 01553 0078 +172 +051 053042 043 034 000 03
165930 2832N 06731W 8429 01547 0076 +172 +051 051043 043 032 001 00
170000 2831N 06730W 8426 01549 0076 +171 +051 051044 044 034 001 00
170030 2830N 06729W 8430 01543 0074 +171 +052 051044 045 034 001 00
170100 2829N 06728W 8429 01546 0074 +171 +051 051045 046 033 000 00
170130 2827N 06727W 8425 01549 0073 +171 +051 049045 047 033 001 00
170200 2826N 06725W 8430 01540 0072 +168 +052 047045 046 032 001 00
170230 2825N 06724W 8429 01543 0070 +169 +052 047044 045 033 000 00
170300 2824N 06723W 8424 01545 0068 +170 +052 047045 046 034 000 00
170330 2822N 06722W 8428 01538 0065 +171 +054 047046 047 034 000 00
170400 2821N 06721W 8426 01538 0064 +170 +055 048046 047 034 001 00
170430 2820N 06719W 8429 01534 0061 +172 +056 047047 048 035 000 00
170500 2819N 06718W 8428 01534 0061 +169 +058 047047 048 036 000 00
170530 2818N 06717W 8426 01534 0065 +160 +063 044047 050 037 006 00
170600 2816N 06716W 8433 01529 0060 +168 +077 047049 049 036 004 00
170630 2815N 06715W 8426 01534 0055 +170 +085 044049 050 037 002 00
170700 2813N 06714W 8426 01532 0054 +170 +089 044048 050 037 001 00
170730 2812N 06713W 8428 01527 0054 +162 +095 040049 052 036 021 00
170800 2810N 06712W 8429 01530 0058 +155 +111 044048 052 050 019 00
170830 2809N 06711W 8422 01529 0044 +172 +117 050047 049 039 004 00

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

000
URNT15 KNHC 111717
AF303 0115A NICOLE HDOB 28 20161011
170900 2808N 06709W 8430 01521 0042 +177 +110 050047 048 036 002 00
170930 2807N 06708W 8428 01524 0040 +179 +105 049048 048 036 000 00
171000 2806N 06707W 8428 01523 0042 +173 +101 046049 050 035 001 00
171030 2805N 06705W 8429 01520 0037 +180 +101 051050 051 035 002 00
171100 2804N 06704W 8427 01520 0037 +173 +101 054052 053 037 004 00
171130 2803N 06703W 8418 01521 0038 +160 +109 053047 052 038 011 00
171200 2802N 06702W 8430 01509 0036 +162 +120 053050 053 043 013 00
171230 2801N 06700W 8425 01514 0029 +170 +126 050052 052 035 001 00
171300 2800N 06659W 8430 01508 0025 +174 +124 051054 055 036 001 00
171330 2758N 06658W 8427 01510 0022 +177 +117 054053 054 037 001 00
171400 2757N 06657W 8426 01506 0020 +174 +118 054054 054 039 001 00
171430 2756N 06656W 8431 01498 0021 +166 +118 053052 054 039 007 00
171500 2755N 06655W 8426 01504 0021 +165 +124 055057 059 041 004 00
171530 2754N 06653W 8426 01498 0012 +172 +123 053057 057 041 002 00
171600 2753N 06652W 8429 01492 0008 +174 +120 051055 056 041 001 00
171630 2751N 06651W 8432 01486 0005 +175 +115 053054 056 043 001 00
171700 2750N 06650W 8426 01491 0003 +175 +114 054058 058 043 001 00
171730 2749N 06649W 8429 01486 9998 +173 +114 052057 059 042 002 00
171800 2748N 06648W 8429 01482 9998 +172 +120 051059 060 048 003 00
171830 2747N 06646W 8429 01480 9992 +175 +118 051059 061 048 003 00
$$

[Alyono]

This is clearly a hurricane now

[cycloneye]

985 mbs but still a touch to reach center.

URNT15 KNHC 111727
AF303 0115A NICOLE HDOB 29 20161011
171900 2745N 06645W 8430 01474 9989 +173 +118 050056 058 046 006 03
171930 2744N 06644W 8428 01473 9979 +181 +118 049056 057 048 004 00
172000 2743N 06643W 8429 01468 9975 +183 +112 049058 059 048 004 00
172030 2742N 06642W 8428 01464 9971 +183 +109 048057 059 048 001 00
172100 2741N 06641W 8429 01459 9966 +183 +107 050061 062 051 002 00
172130 2739N 06639W 8426 01457 9958 +187 +106 049060 060 049 002 00
172200 2738N 06638W 8427 01453 9952 +190 +105 049058 060 049 004 00
172230 2737N 06637W 8429 01445 9948 +188 +103 049059 059 050 005 00
172300 2736N 06636W 8426 01445 9949 +177 +106 046063 064 054 005 00
172330 2735N 06635W 8430 01436 9939 +185 +112 045065 066 053 005 00
172400 2733N 06633W 8425 01434 9934 +182 +112 044066 067 054 002 00
172430 2732N 06632W 8430 01420 9925 +180 +115 044065 066 056 002 00
172500 2731N 06631W 8428 01414 9915 +180 +113 047065 066 056 001 00
172530 2730N 06630W 8426 01407 9906 +180 +116 045064 066 056 002 00
172600 2728N 06629W 8428 01398 9900 +176 +117 048062 065 058 005 00
172630 2727N 06628W 8422 01393 9892 +170 +121 049053 061 058 006 00
172700 2726N 06626W 8430 01378 9874 +180 +127 041042 052 057 003 00
172730 2725N 06625W 8429 01376 9867 +183 +130 035040 043 052 004 03
172800 2724N 06624W 8428 01365 9857 +191 +127 034034 038 047 003 00
172830 2723N 06622W 8429 01362 9853 +191 +119 039030 033 034 001 00
$$
;

[cycloneye]

[NotoSans]

60-knot winds found in NW and SE quad. Lowest extrapolated pressure 983.7 mb.

[cycloneye]

Extrapolated 984 mbs.

URNT15 KNHC 111737
AF303 0115A NICOLE HDOB 30 20161011
172900 2722N 06621W 8430 01359 9849 +193 +113 040025 029 029 000 03
172930 2721N 06619W 8428 01359 9846 +197 +105 043021 023 025 000 00
173000 2720N 06618W 8429 01353 9843 +195 +101 051019 020 025 000 03
173030 2719N 06617W 8437 01341 9840 +195 +095 045015 017 020 001 00
173100 2718N 06615W 8432 01347 9839 +194 +089 065011 013 020 000 03
173130 2716N 06614W 8434 01345 9840 +194 +085 065006 010 017 000 00
173200 2715N 06614W 8432 01346 9839 +195 +082 096003 005 016 001 00
173230 2713N 06613W 8429 01350 9839 +195 +079 213004 007 017 000 03
173300 2712N 06612W 8428 01351 9837 +196 +077 220009 011 019 000 00
173330 2710N 06611W 8429 01350 9841 +195 +076 219011 012 019 000 00
173400 2709N 06610W 8430 01352 9843 +195 +074 223015 015 019 001 00
173430 2708N 06608W 8429 01356 9846 +195 +072 226018 018 022 001 00
173500 2707N 06607W 8430 01357 9850 +195 +071 222022 023 027 002 00
173530 2706N 06606W 8425 01363 9855 +186 +069 225027 029 047 006 00
173600 2705N 06604W 8434 01358 9865 +177 +067 221044 057 061 016 03
173630 2704N 06603W 8441 01361 9880 +168 +069 213062 066 /// /// 03
173700 2703N 06602W 8426 01386 9890 +166 +083 214065 066 058 011 00
173730 2701N 06601W 8435 01386 9901 +166 +105 214066 067 058 006 00
173800 2700N 06600W 8425 01404 9909 +165 +123 217064 066 059 006 00
173830 2659N 06558W 8427 01410 9912 +172 +137 219066 069 055 007 00

[cycloneye]

[1900hurricane]

Dropsonde yields 982 mb w/2 kt winds at the surface.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NICOLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 30A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
200 PM AST TUE OCT 11 2016

...NICOLE BECOMES A HURRICANE AGAIN, HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR
BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 66.3W
ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Hurricane Warning for
Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was
located near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 66.3 West. Nicole is
moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A northwest to
north-northwest motion is expected today. A turn toward the north
and an increase in forward speed is expected tonight, followed by a
northeast turn on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Nicole is expected to approach Bermuda Wednesday night and pass near
Bermuda Thursday morning.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next day or two.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km) from the center.

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal
flooding in Bermuda. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied
by large and destructive waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin on Bermuda
by Wednesday night, with tropical storm conditions beginning
Wednesday afternoon.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 3 to 5 inches over Bermuda through Thursday.

SURF: Swells associated with Nicole will affect Bermuda during the
next few days. These swells will create dangerous surf conditions
and rip currents. Please refer to products being issued by the
Bermuda Weather Service.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[abajan]

As of the 2 PM advisory, it's a hurricane and Bermuda is under a hurricane warning. Currently, to my untrained eye, it looks poised to intensify (possibly rapidly).

[tolakram]

GFS 12z

[USTropics]

Nicole's progression through the day on visible satellite: