ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

First dvorak T numbers:

26/1745 UTC 10.2N 48.3W T1.0/1.0 97L -- Atlantic

[Kazmit]

Satellite presentation is better. It is getting more organized and I won't be surprised if we see Matthew in the next 24 hours.

[jlauderdal]

I like how the NHC just refused to show anything in their cone past Puerto Rico in this update lol

the cone of confusion in this case is where it could develop unlike the forecast cone we see that is based purely on statistics

this would be a good time for anyone that doesnt know how the forecast cone works please read here so there is clarity that its not based on opinion or randomness:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml

[ScottNAtlanta]

This track reminds me a lot of Cleo 64, even though Cleo was in August

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Cleo

[OntarioEggplant]

Can we just get one solid storm this year that the models aren't completely schizophrenic on?

[RL3AO]

Can we just get one solid storm this year that the models aren't completely schizophrenic on?

I think the models have been quite impressive so far with this. If you want consistency at day 10, come back here in 2037.

[Kazmit]

How are the SSTs in the Bahamas? If it's warm enough, this storm could harness that fuel, and intensify similar to how Joaquin did last year, around the same time. That would be bad news for Florida.

[La Sirena]

How are the SSTs in the Bahamas? If it's warm enough, this storm could harness that fuel, and intensify similar to how Joaquin did last year, around the same time. That would be bad news for Florida.

SST's are still very high between the Bahamas and all around Florida into the GOM.

[Gustywind]

This track reminds me a lot of Cleo 64, even though Cleo was in August

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Cleo

Cleo was not a friend for us in Guadeloupe. Given the path projections, 97L is not expected to move apparently too far north but as we remembered the crazy track of Marilyn 1995 we never know, hoping that neither Cleo or Marylin will cross the butterfly island and our other neighbours in the Windwards. Anyway, we have to monitor closely the situation. Don't let your guard down islanders. Stay tuned.

Cleo's impact
* Guadeloupe[edit]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Cleo
Official reports from Guadeloupe indicated 14 dead, 40 injured, 1,000 homes destroyed and extensive damage to the island's infrastructure. The hurricane devastated sugar and banana plantations.[16] One C-124 aircraft delivered seven tons of relief supplies to the island.[17]

[RL3AO]

This wave looks very impressive this afternoon. Still developing convection near the diurnal minimum with impressive outflow already setting up on north side.

[CourierPR]

This track reminds me a lot of Cleo 64, even though Cleo was in August

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Cleo

Yes, and if my memory serves me correctly, Cleo was possibly going to stay off Florida but instead headed NW and intensified after crossing Cuba. I grew up in Ft. Lauderdale at the time and clearly recall the passage of part of the eye over our house.

[Alyono]

looks very similar to how Tomas looked 6 years ago when it was taking shape in the exact same place

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/780486250994233344

[Weatherboy1]

Well, this is shaping up to be quite an interesting system. Lots of model support for development, solid appearance on satellite, and an abnormal track setting up. Usually, you don't get "hard right turns" out of systems until October and November. But many models hinting at just such a turn down the road for 97 - it's only a question of when said turn begins. Like I said, very interesting scenario setting up.

[SouthFLTropics]

Well, this is shaping up to be quite an interesting system. Lots of model support for development, solid appearance on satellite, and an abnormal track setting up. Usually, you don't get "hard right turns" out of systems until October and November. But many models hinting at just such a turn down the road for 97 - it's only a question of when said turn begins. Like I said, very interesting scenario setting up.

Well technically when the turn occurs it will be October...But I know you were meaning late October or November. I wouldn't say it is all that odd to get this turn this early in October. Floyd was turned north in September and Charley was turned north and then northeast in August.

[jlauderdal]

Bernie Rayno Disco:

http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail ... Start=true

[Weatherboy1]

Well, this is shaping up to be quite an interesting system. Lots of model support for development, solid appearance on satellite, and an abnormal track setting up. Usually, you don't get "hard right turns" out of systems until October and November. But many models hinting at just such a turn down the road for 97 - it's only a question of when said turn begins. Like I said, very interesting scenario setting up.

Well technically when the turn occurs it will be October...But I know you were meaning late October or November. I wouldn't say it is all that odd to get this turn this early in October. Floyd was turned north in September and Charley was turned north and then northeast in August.

You're right about Charley. But that was one heck of an anomalous trough for August! As for Floyd, you're also right ... but the starting point of the turn was much further north than where 97 is forecast to start its "hard right" in the southern Caribbean. In any event, it'll be interesting to watch from here in South Florida. It's encouraging to see so many models start the turn far enough east to avoid bothering us. But we're still pretty far out in time so I'm not banking on any scenario just yet.

[SouthFLTropics]

Well, this is shaping up to be quite an interesting system. Lots of model support for development, solid appearance on satellite, and an abnormal track setting up. Usually, you don't get "hard right turns" out of systems until October and November. But many models hinting at just such a turn down the road for 97 - it's only a question of when said turn begins. Like I said, very interesting scenario setting up.

Well technically when the turn occurs it will be October...But I know you were meaning late October or November. I wouldn't say it is all that odd to get this turn this early in October. Floyd was turned north in September and Charley was turned north and then northeast in August.

You're right about Charley. But that was one heck of an anomalous trough for August! As for Floyd, you're also right ... but the starting point of the turn was much further north than where 97 is forecast to start its "hard right" in the southern Caribbean. In any event, it'll be interesting to watch from here in South Florida. It's encouraging to see so many models start the turn far enough east to avoid bothering us. But we're still pretty far out in time so I'm not banking on any scenario just yet.

Definitely not anywhere close to being ready to sound the all clear here in South Florida. And, yes, you are correct about Floyd being much farther north when the turn occurred. I'm guessing that to get a storm to turn so dramatically north out of that far south in the Caribbean there needs to be one heck of a trough eroding the ridge. Interesting days ahead. Based on past experience with the GFS I believe the approach to FL will be much closer than what is being shown but perhaps not a direct impact. I just feel the GFS is overcooking the intensity and also doing what it is notorious for...breaking down the ridge too soon. HWRF is in the same camp with overcooking the intensity. The GFDL on the other hand may not be strong enough. I feel the correct solution lies somewhere in between.

[Medtronic15]

Buoy 41041 (West Invest 97L)

NDBC
Location: 14.329N 46.082W
Date: Mon, 26 Sep 2016 18:50:00 UTC
Winds: E (100°) at 17.5 kt gusting to 19.4 kt
Significant Wave Height: 7.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 7 sec
Average Wave Period: 5.6 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ENE (70°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.85 in and falling
Air Temperature: 80.6 F
Dew Point: 76.3 F
Water Temperature: 82.8 F

[Bocadude85]

My initial thoughts are a close call with Jamaica and then a direct hit on eastern/central Cuba..from there I would say into the central Bahamas. Close enough to scare people in Florida but far enough away for nothing more then some rough surf and maybe a passing squall.