ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Ntxw]

Does Matthew have a legit shot at going sub 900mb?

Highly unlikely. Background pressures are fairly high.

Yeah it's unlikely. The deep sub 900mb storms tends to have large area of uniform dark gray on Dvorak, intense warm clouds and consistent. Plus it will be going poleward soon so pressure could drop but it may expand in size.

[Patrick99]

Why didn't the NHC adjust the the cone to the left.They haven't budged the cone in 3 days and I wonder if they see something that makes them certain of their forecast.

A SE Florida hit has been extremely questionable since the formation of Matthew, however a lot of the models are agreeing upon a miss on Florida, and a trending a probable NC/VA landfall.

However I do agree that the NHC should include more of FL in its cone though, and issue watches for the Keys as soon as Sunday.

They never swing the needle too far in one direction or another all at once. It's just not what they do. In any event, pointless to worry yet anyway. We're only in the top of the 3rd inning here, a lot left to play out.

[EquusStorm]

Last couple of frames have been unreal. Core becoming very symmetrical with pinhole and eye warming, and impressive outflow.

[Hurricane_Apu]

Matthew is here to intensify rapidly and chew bubblegum. Right now he appears to be all out of gum...

[ronyan]

When is recon going back into this?

[KWT]

Does Matthew have a legit shot at going sub 900mb?

Highly unlikely. Background pressures are fairly high.

Yeah it's unlikely. The deep sub 900mb storms tends to have large area of uniform dark gray on Dvorak, intense warm clouds and consistent. Plus it will be going poleward soon so pressure could drop but it may expand in size.

I tend to agree with this, don't think we will be seeing super low pressures from this, but into the 920mbs is possible if it taps into its full potential. (Felix in the same area went down to 929mbs)

[tolakram]

Another big burst of convection obscuring the eye for a bit.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=14&lon=-71&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10&mapcolor=gray&map=county

[1900hurricane]

Does Matthew have a legit shot at going sub 900mb?

Highly unlikely. Background pressures are fairly high.

Environmental pressure as listed in ATCF is only 1007 mb. I could see it maybe being a mb or two higher than that, but it's not like there are 1015+ mb highs surrounding Matthew.

[weatherwindow]

Does Matthew have a legit shot at going sub 900mb?

Highly unlikely. Background pressures are fairly high.

FWIW in order to achieve those rarefied numbers I feel that the track would have to extend further west towards the vicinity of the Caymans with the highest jule basin and of course it would presuppose nonexistent shear with likely multiple outflow channel

[wxmann_91]

Does Matthew have a legit shot at going sub 900mb?

Highly unlikely. Background pressures are fairly high.

Environmental pressure as listed in ATCF is only 1007 mb. I could see it maybe being a mb or two higher than that, but it's not like there are 1015+ mb highs surrounding Matthew.

I stand corrected then.

(Though still rather unlikely to go sub-900)

[Sanibel]

What I don't like is these tracks always shift and this thing is doing what you don't want it to if you live in Florida...

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

Matthew is here to intensify rapidly and chew bubblegum. Right now he appears to be all out of gum...

Hes got eyewalls of steel

[GCANE]

Anybody know if any rapid scans on this?

[1900hurricane]

Solid eyewall on the recent GPM pass.

[tatertawt24]

Blacks starting to wrap around the eye on AVN. I think I may have been the first to make the Felix comparison last night?

[Macrocane]

Thin dark ring wrapping around the center in the latest AVN IR.

Edit: Beat me to it

[GCANE]

Nice distribution of radial gravity waves on the eyewall cirrus

[FireRat]

Incredible storm!! Could this be a storm similar to the infamous Savana Le Mar hurricane of 1780? Same dates and similar angle of approach. Hope this thing misses Jamaica!!!

[Cunxi Huang]

Look at Matthew.

[MaineWeatherNut]

Now that it's been a little while since the last pass from the NOAA flight it will be interesting to see what the pressure is once this next Airforce flight get's into the center. With the new Convection wrapping completely around the center pretty much I wouldn't be surprised to see a pressure down into the 930s