ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

That hot tower literally exploded into the tropopause.
Cirrus from it is very high in altitude masking the eye.
Rarely see that.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

East-side feeder band is also firing off hot towers.

Working off of very high OHC water.

[p1nheadlarry]

Why didn't the NHC adjust the the cone to the left.They haven't budged the cone in 3 days and I wonder if they see something that makes them certain of their forecast.

A SE Florida hit has been extremely questionable since the formation of Matthew, however a lot of the models are agreeing upon a miss on Florida, and a trending a probable NC/VA landfall.

However I do agree that the NHC should include more of FL in its cone though, and issue watches for the Keys as soon as Sunday.

Nope

[La Sirena]

Why didn't the NHC adjust the the cone to the left.They haven't budged the cone in 3 days and I wonder if they see something that makes them certain of their forecast.

A SE Florida hit has been extremely questionable since the formation of Matthew, however a lot of the models are agreeing upon a miss on Florida, and a trending a probable NC/VA landfall.

However I do agree that the NHC should include more of FL in its cone though, and issue watches for the Keys as soon as Sunday.

Yeah, evacuating the Keys is no easy task. I'm still trying to catch up on what's going on....

[abajan]

The overly conservative intensity forecasts by the NHC have been unacceptable. Even with plenty of data arguing that it would be stronger, they consistently go against it.

Of course, scientific analysis of data is important, but hunches (or "gut feelings", if you will) are worth a lot too. From yesterday evening when I saw the appearance of Matthew in the visible satellite image I quoted in this post, I had a hunch it would rapidly intensify to a major cane and that it would probably reach Cat 4 at some point. I didn't think it would happen quite this quickly, though. I figured it would have been more likely to occur late tonight. Now I'm thinking Matthew might just make a run a Cat 5 tonight!

And what are my spidey senses telling me about where it's heading? As Balki in the sitcom Perfect Strangers would say, "Get out of the city!". Which city? Kingston. Then again, it's just a hunch. Hopefully, those in Jamaica and elsewhere in Matthew's possible path are paying close attention. This is a serious situation developing.

[Yellow Evan]

T6.5. OW eye embedded in W.

[MaineWeatherNut]

It's also starting to move away from the northern part of SA which should improve the southern Inflow.

[Macrocane]

I've always believed that winds should be the main factor to rate the intensity of tropical cyclones and not the pressure.
If Matthew reaches category 5 but the pressure doesn't drop below 924 mbar, Igor would still be "most intense" by pressure, even Felix had a higher pressure than Igor (929 mbar).

[GCANE]

That hot tower literally exploded into the tropopause.
Cirrus from it is very high in altitude masking the eye.
Rarely see that.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

East-side feeder band is also firing off hot towers.

Working off of very high OHC water.

Now another hot tower popping out that one.
Incredible.

[Nimbus]

Waiting for a post about the Trochoidal wobble signaling a direction change.

[TheProfessor]

Does Matthew have a legit shot at going sub 900mb?

[Hurricaneman]

Does Matthew have a legit shot at going sub 900mb?

We'll find out this weekend

[ronyan]

Does Matthew have a legit shot at going sub 900mb?

We'll find out this weekend

Seems like the winds would be obscenely high.

[KWT]

That hot tower literally exploded into the tropopause.
Cirrus from it is very high in altitude masking the eye.
Rarely see that.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

East-side feeder band is also firing off hot towers.

Working off of very high OHC water.

I remember one storm (one of the big guns) had a hot tower that basically was like a large eyewall wart and blocked half of the eye, wonder if we will see something like that here?!

I think sub 900mbs is unlikely for this run of strengthening, but once it clears SA and if it gets into another strengthening burst afterwards, its a legit possiblity.

Then again...watch Matthew blow my ideas out of the water now!

[weatherwindow]

That hot tower literally exploded into the tropopause.
Cirrus from it is very high in altitude masking the eye.
Rarely see that.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

East-side feeder band is also firing off hot towers.

Working off of very high OHC water.

.............

Surely a - 85-90deg candidate,!!!!...........Rich

[wxmann_91]

Does Matthew have a legit shot at going sub 900mb?

Highly unlikely. Background pressures are fairly high.

[Alyono]

the NHC track forecast is fine. No need for a major shift. The west shifts mainly happened AFTER 5 days

[MetroMike]

That hot tower literally exploded into the tropopause.
Cirrus from it is very high in altitude masking the eye.
Rarely see that.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

East-side feeder band is also firing off hot towers.

Working off of very high OHC water.

I remember one storm (one of the big guns) had a hot tower that basically was like a large eyewall wart and blocked half of the eye, wonder if we will see something like that here?!

I think sub 900mbs is unlikely for this run of strengthening, but once it clears SA and if it gets into another strengthening burst afterwards, its a legit possiblity.

Then again...watch Matthew blow my ideas out of the water now!

It is very striking to see that when the sun is setting out there. Should be the same at sunrise Sat.

[psyclone]

Why didn't the NHC adjust the the cone to the left.They haven't budged the cone in 3 days and I wonder if they see something that makes them certain of their forecast.

A SE Florida hit has been extremely questionable since the formation of Matthew, however a lot of the models are agreeing upon a miss on Florida, and a trending a probable NC/VA landfall.

However I do agree that the NHC should include more of FL in its cone though, and issue watches for the Keys as soon as Sunday.

Since the cone represents an average error rate over time, the only way more of Florida is included in the cone is if the track shifts more to the west. As of the 5PM advisory, no one in Florida has more than a 10% chance of TS winds and even that is confined to a small region. The only way watches will eventually be warranted for portions of Florida is if the track moves west by a meaningful margin. Per the latest NHC product the chance of TS winds in the lower keys is 5%, with 10% for the upper keys.

[Sanibel]

Geesh, forgot to check this and look at what I come back to find.


I had an itching feeling the last few days that a season everyone writes off is always the one that comes back to bite you in the...

[ronyan]

Starting to see a stadium effect in the eye of Matthew.