ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2081 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:46 pm

InRRwetrust wrote:
TimeZone wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Jeez. 127 knots (146 mph) at the surface per new dropsonde.


What?! :eek:

the 18th dropsonde 13.6N 71.4W @ 20:28???


Yup. For some reason they didn't record anything at 965mb, or directly at the surface, but it was recorded at 964mb, so pretty much the surface.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2082 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:47 pm

extremely impressive radar... and from the last pass has even become more circular with a wider eyewall and look at the very deep convection in that hot tower..still deepening...

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... OAA-3-.kmz
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2083 Postby ronyan » Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:47 pm

948mb the last pass
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2084 Postby WmE » Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:48 pm

Ntxw wrote:
KWT wrote:
Ntxw wrote:http://i65.tinypic.com/5a493c.jpg


Really looking great now, going to make a run at category-5 that is for sure, looking closer and closer to what Felix did near this location in 2007...


Looks a lot like Felix did around this same area.


Yeah close. As far as I can remember Felix had that very impressive stadium effect though.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2085 Postby ronyan » Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:48 pm

ronyan wrote:948mb the last pass


I believe with 17 kt, is that correct?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2086 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:48 pm

ronyan wrote:948mb the last pass


they are not doing full eye passes only eyewall, pressure likely around 940 to 945mb ish
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2087 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:48 pm

Very impressive.

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2088 Postby caneseddy » Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:49 pm

Officially Cat 4; winds of 140 mph!!

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016

...MATTHEW RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS TO A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR JAMAICA...
Last edited by caneseddy on Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2089 Postby SFLcane » Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:49 pm

Now a cat 4 140 mph winds!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2090 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:50 pm

140 mph

...MATTHEW RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS TO A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR JAMAICA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 71.6W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM N OF PUNTA GALLINAS COLOMBIA
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2091 Postby wxmann_91 » Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:50 pm

5 PM advisory has this at 120 kt. Cat 4. Hurricane Watch up for Jamaica.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2092 Postby Kazmit » Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:50 pm

Winds up to 140mph, pressure down to 949 mbars.

...MATTHEW RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS TO A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR JAMAICA...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2093 Postby Soonercane » Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:51 pm

I know someone flying into Kingston tomorrow and staying until Tuesday. What kind of impacts will they experience there most likely (obviously it depends on the track)?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2094 Postby KWT » Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:51 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:extremely impressive radar... and from the last pass has even become more circular with a wider eyewall and look at the very deep convection in that hot tower..still deepening...

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... OAA-3-.kmz


Great radar, but interestingly still not quite perfect!

Still plenty of room to improve on that presentation, which suggests to me a cat-5 is probably quite likely from this system...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2095 Postby EquusStorm » Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:51 pm

Welp, this is one of the most impressive bits of deepening we've seen in the Caribbean in a little while... very interested in seeing how strong this gets. Mitch's replacement is really showing its stuff.

I hate that the sun will set soon, I would really like to see some high definition visible images for a lot longer. If the surface winds are as high as reported, I'd not be shocked to see a Felix 2.0 by tomorrow. Wonder if they'll run into graupel in the eyewall of this one too? I would be very worried were I in Jamaica.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2096 Postby caneseddy » Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:51 pm

Still moving WSW at 9 mph...turn to WNW expected tomorrow night.
Last edited by caneseddy on Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2097 Postby SFLcane » Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:52 pm

New track slight bend to the west
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2098 Postby NDG » Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:52 pm

Ntxw wrote:http://i65.tinypic.com/5a493c.jpg


It has been a long time since we have seen this over the deep Caribbean.
This is the same general area that MH Felix '07 strengthen rapidly.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 022015.GIF
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2099 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:52 pm

Slight west move.

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#2100 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 30, 2016 3:52 pm

caneseddy wrote:Still moving WSW at 9 mph...west turn not expected until tomorrow night.


yeah they had no choice but to adjust the track again given the continued motion not following the consensus ..
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