ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[tolakram]

Nowhere to go

[OntarioEggplant]

One of the most critical questions regarding the GFS is that 500 mb low/trough it swings down over the eastern Gulf and Florida. It is the only model that has that... The Euro does not show it at all. If it is spurious, a more western track would be a near certainty.

[Bocadude85]

The difference between the 18z GFS and the 12Z EURO at 120 hours is about 300-400 miles. Something has to to give here. 240 hours the difference is over 1000 miles.

[RL3AO]

This is a very complex and uncertain forecast. This is very similar to Joaquin in that regards. Just be careful making statements that imply something is locked in because in reality very little is.

[1900hurricane]

One of the most critical questions regarding the GFS is that 500 mb low/trough it swings down over the eastern Gulf and Florida. It is the only model that has that... The Euro does not show it at all. If it is spurious, a more western track would be a near certainty.

It's there, just not as potent. It does have a clear signal if you look at the 500 mb normalized height anomalies on Levi Cowan's page. It also develops it and moves it further southwest than the GFS has.

[Blown Away]

12z Euro vs 18z GFS... 240 Hour GFS has Matt absorbed into super low over Canada and Euro has Matt at Cat 4 meandering in the Bahamas... Crazy difference...

[CrazyC83]

When it comes to models beyond 7 days or so, most of the features involved have not formed yet and there is limited upper-air data in the Pacific. They could certainly be off in timing or position greatly. As advanced as computer models are, they have difficulty still in the super long range.

[Ken711]

Nowhere to go

What could change allowing it to kick out to sea?

[RL3AO]

When it comes to models beyond 7 days or so, most of the features involved have not formed yet and there is limited upper-air data in the Pacific. They could certainly be off in timing or position greatly. As advanced as computer models are, they have difficulty still in the super long range.

Plus when you throw in blocking and cut-off lows, things become even more difficult. We have had a strong typhoon in the Pacific plus big blocking over North America. The model skill scores have already been dropping the past few days.

Lastly, the jet streak that the GFS eventually has Matthew get absorbed into is near Japan right now.

[WeatherEmperor]

The difference between the 18z GFS and the 12Z EURO at 120 hours is about 300-400 miles. Something has to to give here. 240 hours the difference is over 1000 miles.

We have to wait for future runs but something is already giving when the Euro shifted east from its previous runs. Maybe it will be slow shifts until ut catches up with the Gfs or who knows but I think that was the first step toward more model agreement


Sent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalk

[xcool22]

can't wait for 00z gfs

[La Sirena]

The difference between the 18z GFS and the 12Z EURO at 120 hours is about 300-400 miles. Something has to to give here. 240 hours the difference is over 1000 miles.

We have to wait for future runs but something is already giving when the Euro shifted east from its previous runs. Maybe it will be slow shifts until ut catches up with the Gfs or who knows but I think that was the first step toward more model agreement


Sent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalk

I thought the GFS was shifted slightly west this run and the Euro had shifted slightly east last run. Did I get it confused? I figured the models were shifting and coming to a closer conclusion.

[TimeZone]

12z Euro vs 18z GFS... 240 Hour GFS has Matt absorbed into super low over Canada and Euro has Matt at Cat 4 meandering in the Bahamas... Crazy difference...

superlow?

[jason1912]

GEFS members show a good amount hitting the mid-Atlantic/NE

[WeatherEmperor]

The difference between the 18z GFS and the 12Z EURO at 120 hours is about 300-400 miles. Something has to to give here. 240 hours the difference is over 1000 miles.

We have to wait for future runs but something is already giving when the Euro shifted east from its previous runs. Maybe it will be slow shifts until ut catches up with the Gfs or who knows but I think that was the first step toward more model agreement


Sent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalk

I thought the GFS was shifted slightly west this run and the Euro had shifted slightly east last run. Did I get it confused? I figured the models were shifting and coming to a closer conclusion.

At 240hrs the Euro is drifting near the northern Bahamas while the Gfs is inland in Canada. That is a huuuuge difference.

If 240hrs out is too much even bringing it down to 168hrs they are several hundred miles apart with the Euro near the north coast of Cuba and the Gfs near the NC coast. These 2 models are still way too far apart.


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[Blown Away]

Based on models, no reason at the moment to think Matt is a significant threat to Florida/GOM...

[pcolaman]

I understand what the models are saying but not strong enough to feel the weakess to the north yet. Still kinda low and forcasted to dip to the wsw for some period of time. So not sold on the strong right turn. Imho

[Bocadude85]

18z GFDL with a decent SW shift.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfdl&region=14L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2016092818&fh=126&xpos=0&ypos=0

[DESTRUCTION5]

18z HWRF wipes Hati off Map and is headed to E Cuba at 96 hrs.

See here as it plays out:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=501

[Ken711]

Based on models, no reason at the moment to think Matt is a significant threat to Florida/GOM...

Totally agree. The mid-Atlantic is in the bulls eye in my opinion.