ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[AtlanticWind]

I don't think trough is as deep in Gulf on this run of gfs

[stormreader]

[i mg]http://i67.tinypic.com/15hn6uu.jpg[/img]
Decent consensus here...

With that kind of consensus I would be breathing a sigh of relief once again in Florida. The Euro is a total mess!

I have to ask...How in the world there can be that much consensus on an extremely difficult forecast going out 8-10 days?? And, is that much consensus really a good thing? The best and brightest humans who interpret these models are not able, at this point, to come up with a logic which would support such consensus. All I can say is that the GFS ( for its sake) better pan out. If this storm ends up in the GOM the it will be a monumental failure (considering that the entire ensemble, from the beginning, was so consistent and uniform with a track east of Fl. To say that the Euro is "a mess" is probably not accurate. It is probably a truer representation of our best technology grappling with this most difficult forecast. But we'll see. The GFS has put all of its proverbial eggs in one basket. If this forecast fails, it will be a monumental bust!

[tolakram]

[northjaxpro]

Well, I guess we will definitely find out for sure one way or another regarding the GFS at least about one week now won't we?

[tolakram]

[stormlover2013]

this run already a difference

[DESTRUCTION5]

Is it me or has the 18z changed tune in FWD speed ?

[OntarioEggplant]

Is it me or has the 18z changed tune in FWD speed ?

It is slightly slower at 114

[tolakram]

Trend not showing that much of a difference.

[RL3AO]

Especially for those ruling out certain areas to the west.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/781253726749204480

[gatorcane]

Looks like the 18Z GFS is slightly west of the 12Z track in the Bahamas by at hour 132 as it passes South Florida to the east.

[tolakram]

[TheStormExpert]

Things have definitely trended west some on the 18z GFS with Matthew now just East of Eleuthera Island in the Bahamas @138hrs.

[OntarioEggplant]

This shift west looks mainly like a correction from the 12Z initial errors. So it's not surprising now that recon fixed center of the storm will be the input going forward.

[1900hurricane]

Looks like some fujiwhara interaction is taking place between Matthew and the upper low to the west, helping to give Matthew a little push to the north. Such a solution hinges largely upon placement of that upper low.

[SunnyThoughts]

looks like its headed for the outerbanks at 162

[tolakram]

Please remember, or if you didn't read a few pages back, we are deleting off topic chatter, on liners, and other posts deemed not pertinent to the model thread. Nothing personal, and you are free to make your posts in the discussion thread. Thanks.

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

This shift west looks mainly like a correction from the 12Z initial errors. So it's not surprising now that recon fixed center of the storm will be the input going forward.

I think it would help if you look at the model run closeup, hi rez mode, and see how the globals handle the init. Init is important for the hurricane models but the globals, especially in day 1 to 3, are going to handle it. That's what they do in my opinion.

[tolakram]