EPAC: OTTO - Remnants

[Alyono]

55 kt tropical storm at most

[Alyono]

HWRF, which had this as a cat 2/3 for so many days, now has a moderate TS. It actually has this stronger over the EPAC than it is at Caribbean landfall


BS FLAG on this run. It actually INTENSIFIES Otto as it crosses over Central America

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 222344
AF305 0316A OTTO HDOB 36 20161122
233400 1128N 07845W 8429 01541 0058 +177 +151 116020 020 017 001 00
233430 1127N 07846W 8431 01537 0057 +173 +155 113021 021 018 001 00
233500 1126N 07847W 8430 01537 0058 +171 +161 111023 024 019 001 00
233530 1125N 07848W 8428 01537 //// +166 //// 119021 023 020 001 01
233600 1123N 07850W 8433 01531 0054 +171 +163 111022 023 017 001 01
233630 1122N 07851W 8432 01533 0053 +172 +156 111025 027 018 001 01
233700 1121N 07852W 8428 01537 0052 +174 +157 114024 026 022 000 00
233730 1120N 07853W 8429 01534 //// +169 //// 114025 025 020 002 01
233800 1118N 07855W 8432 01531 //// +167 //// 115025 025 021 001 01
233830 1117N 07856W 8432 01532 0052 +170 +161 119024 024 020 001 00
233900 1116N 07857W 8428 01536 0052 +169 +162 119024 024 022 001 01
233930 1115N 07858W 8430 01531 0050 +171 +166 118025 026 018 002 00
234000 1114N 07859W 8429 01531 0050 +170 +166 118025 026 021 001 00
234030 1112N 07901W 8428 01532 0047 +175 +163 114026 026 019 002 00
234100 1111N 07902W 8429 01531 0045 +176 +163 114026 027 020 002 00
234130 1110N 07903W 8428 01531 0046 +173 +164 114026 027 021 000 00
234200 1109N 07904W 8429 01530 0043 +180 +159 109028 028 021 001 00
234230 1108N 07906W 8430 01527 0038 +185 +152 107027 028 024 001 00
234300 1106N 07907W 8431 01525 0032 +195 +146 111026 026 024 001 00
234330 1105N 07908W 8430 01525 0036 +188 +154 111028 029 026 001 00
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT12 KNHC 222259
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL162016
A. 22/22:42:30Z
B. 10 deg 35 min N
079 deg 38 min W
C. 850 mb 1315 m
D. 49 kt
E. 303 deg 18 nm
F. 028 deg 52 kt
G. 295 deg 8 nm
H. 987 mb
I. 17 C / 1519 m
J. 20 C / 1525 m
K. 19 C / NA
L. OPEN N
M. C20
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF305 0316A OTTO OB 09
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 60 KT 129 / 17 NM 22:48:00Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 160 / 4 KT
;

Despite its satellite signal, it has NOT strengthened...

[AxaltaRacing24]

55 kt tropical storm at most

He can try again tomorrow but he is STRUGGLING tonight.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 222354
AF305 0316A OTTO HDOB 37 20161122
234400 1104N 07909W 8426 01527 0036 +183 +160 113029 030 028 001 00
234430 1103N 07911W 8434 01517 0034 +185 +160 117031 032 028 001 00
234500 1101N 07912W 8429 01521 0029 +189 +155 112033 033 032 001 00
234530 1100N 07913W 8429 01519 0026 +188 +163 118033 034 032 001 00
234600 1059N 07914W 8428 01519 0027 +180 +173 127035 035 033 000 00
234630 1058N 07916W 8422 01521 0025 +182 +160 132034 035 032 001 00
234700 1057N 07917W 8433 01508 0020 +183 +166 133034 034 032 001 00
234730 1055N 07918W 8430 01510 0022 +178 +173 139034 035 034 002 00
234800 1054N 07919W 8425 01513 //// +177 //// 140036 036 035 003 05
234830 1053N 07920W 8430 01503 //// +170 //// 141039 042 036 002 01
234900 1052N 07921W 8429 01500 //// +167 //// 144044 046 036 002 05
234930 1051N 07923W 8429 01496 //// +166 //// 143043 045 037 003 01
235000 1050N 07924W 8428 01491 //// +175 //// 138043 045 038 003 01
235030 1049N 07925W 8433 01482 9991 +180 +175 137045 047 040 002 00
235100 1048N 07926W 8428 01480 //// +183 //// 136047 048 042 002 01
235130 1046N 07927W 8429 01472 9965 +189 +182 137050 052 043 002 01
235200 1045N 07928W 8425 01466 9953 +201 +184 135051 052 044 002 00
235230 1044N 07929W 8426 01453 9935 +212 +181 131048 052 046 002 00
235300 1043N 07931W 8425 01446 9917 +230 +163 130046 047 048 001 00
235330 1042N 07932W 8430 01432 9911 +217 +185 133046 048 046 002 00
$$
;

[EquusStorm]

Intermediate raised the pressure to 987 per recon but remains at 65kt, assuming by persistence. That said, structure has collapsed in last few hours. Still plenty of time over water though.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 230015
AF305 0316A OTTO HDOB 39 20161123
000400 1035N 07940W 8432 01398 //// +194 //// 323012 014 011 000 01
000430 1034N 07941W 8428 01405 9887 +204 +190 336016 017 017 002 00
000500 1033N 07942W 8433 01407 9894 +202 +193 326022 024 026 002 03
000530 1032N 07943W 8425 01424 9909 +198 //// 316037 042 041 006 01
000600 1031N 07944W 8428 01431 9927 +194 //// 312046 049 049 008 01
000630 1030N 07945W 8431 01438 9936 +193 //// 314050 050 057 009 01
000700 1028N 07947W 8429 01452 9956 +192 +192 318052 053 059 009 00
000730 1027N 07948W 8424 01466 9973 +188 +188 317057 059 056 009 00
000800 1026N 07949W 8442 01455 9986 +180 +180 307056 059 053 030 00
000830 1025N 07950W 8420 01486 0003 +172 +172 314057 059 048 029 00
000900 1024N 07951W 8421 01491 0014 +161 +161 319058 058 045 019 00
000930 1023N 07952W 8429 01494 0021 +159 //// 323054 058 039 010 01
001000 1022N 07953W 8424 01505 //// +159 //// 320050 053 033 004 01
001030 1022N 07953W 8424 01505 //// +160 //// 320049 050 033 001 01
001100 1019N 07956W 8432 01504 //// +162 //// 322046 048 033 001 01
001130 1018N 07957W 8427 01511 //// +166 //// 324044 047 033 002 01
001200 1017N 07958W 8413 01532 //// +165 //// 323042 044 031 002 01
001230 1016N 07959W 8433 01511 0032 +171 +165 325036 040 033 002 01
001300 1014N 08000W 8433 01514 //// +170 //// 324037 037 033 001 01
001330 1013N 08002W 8427 01522 //// +154 //// 320038 038 032 004 01
$$
;

59 kt FL, 59 kt SFMR

[CrazyC83]

00
URNT15 KNHC 230004
AF305 0316A OTTO HDOB 38 20161122
235400 1041N 07933W 8427 01424 9901 +215 +188 139040 046 035 001 00
235430 1040N 07934W 8426 01416 9893 +214 +182 136038 040 025 000 00
235500 1038N 07935W 8430 01408 9884 +217 +181 133028 035 022 001 00
235530 1037N 07936W 8432 01397 9876 +215 +185 141022 024 016 001 00
235600 1036N 07938W 8420 01406 9877 +200 +191 139012 020 011 000 01
235630 1035N 07939W 8433 01391 //// +194 //// 165002 008 010 000 01
235700 1034N 07940W 8430 01397 9883 +199 +192 301011 019 012 000 00
235730 1033N 07941W 8430 01403 9888 +202 +191 308022 023 017 001 03
235800 1032N 07943W 8429 01410 9898 +198 +196 326024 028 /// /// 03
235830 1033N 07944W 8430 01412 9901 +198 //// 336028 031 /// /// 05
235900 1034N 07943W 8426 01410 //// +193 //// 357017 025 023 002 01
235930 1036N 07942W 8431 01403 9890 +198 +195 033014 016 019 002 01
000000 1037N 07941W 8428 01404 9887 +200 +195 054014 015 014 001 00
000030 1038N 07940W 8434 01396 9886 +199 +193 076015 017 012 000 00
000100 1039N 07939W 8423 01408 9886 +202 +190 111025 029 016 001 03
000130 1040N 07938W 8436 01398 9887 +206 +189 117033 035 025 001 03
000200 1040N 07936W 8424 01415 9892 +202 +196 132031 033 /// /// 03
000230 1038N 07936W 8433 01403 9892 +200 +195 142028 030 025 002 03
000300 1037N 07937W 8428 01406 //// +194 //// 151021 027 020 001 01
000330 1036N 07938W 8428 01402 //// +190 //// 180003 016 012 002 01
$$
;

Pressure 988mb.

[Alyono]

https://www.facebook.com/CriticaPanama/ ... 592087010/

Here is a video of the mudslides ongoing in Panama

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 230024
AF305 0316A OTTO HDOB 40 20161123
001400 1012N 08003W 8424 01528 //// +159 //// 326035 038 029 002 01
001430 1011N 08004W 8431 01525 //// +157 //// 326035 036 029 002 01
001500 1010N 08005W 8426 01532 //// +165 //// 320033 033 028 001 01
001530 1008N 08006W 8428 01534 //// +167 //// 321033 035 027 002 01
001600 1007N 08007W 8423 01539 0051 +168 +166 322029 032 026 001 01
001630 1006N 08008W 8426 01537 0055 +170 +167 323029 030 030 002 00
001700 1005N 08010W 8433 01532 0067 +164 //// 312029 031 026 003 01
001730 1004N 08011W 8431 01534 //// +159 //// 317033 035 032 003 01
001800 1003N 08012W 8428 01539 //// +159 //// 321034 036 029 003 01
001830 1001N 08013W 8434 01537 0067 +163 +162 322033 035 028 001 01
001900 1000N 08014W 8432 01542 0065 +170 +156 323033 034 028 001 00
001930 0959N 08015W 8431 01542 0060 +178 +150 323033 034 030 001 03
002000 0958N 08017W 8425 01547 0057 +185 +146 326032 033 032 001 00
002030 0957N 08018W 8433 01540 0058 +182 +150 325032 033 032 001 00
002100 0955N 08019W 8433 01540 0062 +175 +157 329032 033 031 001 00
002130 0954N 08020W 8428 01545 0063 +171 +162 332033 033 034 001 01
002200 0953N 08021W 8434 01544 //// +170 //// 331030 033 034 001 05
002230 0953N 08023W 8424 01551 //// +167 //// 323028 029 /// /// 05
002300 0955N 08023W 8132 01848 //// +144 //// 342028 030 /// /// 05
002330 0956N 08024W 7820 02181 0054 +141 +133 341024 027 /// /// 03
$$
;

[galaxy401]

Is the upwelling hindering this storm? Otto has barely moved the last couple of days. But it starting to move so it might find warmer waters before landfall.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Its unlikely we will not see further strengthening of OTTO unfortunately.

[AxaltaRacing24]

https://s15.postimg.org/b37xxq43f/windshear14_anim2_1.gif

Its unlikely we will not see further strengthening of OTTO unfortunately.

Unfortunately? As this is headed towards land I do not think this is a bad thing.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

I don't think the locals would agree with a possible strengthening system before the final landfall,as not a bad thing.

[Hammy]

https://s15.postimg.org/b37xxq43f/windshear14_anim2_1.gif

Its unlikely we will not see further strengthening of OTTO unfortunately.

Unfortunately? As this is headed towards land I do not think this is a bad thing.

Seems like he's saying that the lack of strengthening is unlikely and thus unfortunate.

Intermediate raised the pressure to 987 per recon but remains at 65kt, assuming by persistence. That said, structure has collapsed in last few hours. Still plenty of time over water though.

Interestingly this seems to be following what the models days ago showed, which is a small system, followed by becoming diffuse and less organized (currently under way), followed by a reorganization after about a day.

[bg1]

Truly a late season surprise regardless of if it strengthens any further ... I do hope Costa Rica, etc are taking this seriously.

[abajan]

https://www.facebook.com/CriticaPanama/videos/10154764592087010/

Here is a video of the mudslides ongoing in Panama

Wow! Very dramatic footage.

[Alyono]

Unfortunately, the structure actually improved today, and the convection has returned very near the center. Recon may have sampled this during a temporary weakening phase.

May be tapping an outflow jet to its NE

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.7N 79.8W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM ESE OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM ENE OF LIMON COSTA RICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Nicaragua has issued a Hurricane Warning from
Bluefields south to the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border.

The Government of Costa Rica has issued a Hurricane Warning from
Limon northward to the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border.

HURRICANE OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162016
1000 PM EST TUE NOV 22 2016

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and
satellite imagery indicate that the intensification of Otto has
stopped since the last advisory. The aircraft reported a central
pressure near 988 mb with flight-level and SFMR winds supporting, at
best, an intensity of 65 kt. In addition, satellite imagery shows a
decrease in the coverage of the associated convection. The
arrested development might be due to dry air entrainment in the
eastern semicircle as suggested by water vapor imagery and recent
microwave overpasses.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 285/3. A mid- to
upper-level ridge building over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
southeastern Mexico should steer Otto generally westward to
west-northwestward for the next 36-48 hours, which would bring the
center inland over southern Nicaragua or northern Costa Rica during
that time. After 48 hours, the dynamical models forecast the ridge
to build westward over the eastern Pacific Ocean and steer Otto
westward or west-southwestward to the south of El Salvador,
Guatemala, and eastern Mexico. The forecast guidance is in good
agreement with the direction of the track, but there remains some
spread in the forward speed. The new forecast track is again a
little to the north and a little faster than the previous track,
and it lies near the center of forecast guidance envelope.

It is unclear how long the current arrested development will
continue, as most of the intensity guidance forecasts strengthening
before landfall. The new intensity forecast is based on the
premise that intensification should resume after 12 hours and
continue until landfall, with Otto forecast to make landfall as a
category 1 hurricane. The cyclone should weaken significantly
while crossing Central America, and as shown in the previous
forecast strong shear should prevent re-intensification over the
Pacific.

The latest forecast track and wind radii require hurricane warnings
for portions of the coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua at this time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 10.7N 79.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 10.8N 80.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 11.1N 81.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 11.2N 83.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 11.1N 84.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
72H 26/0000Z 10.5N 89.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER THE PACIFIC
96H 27/0000Z 10.0N 93.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 28/0000Z 10.0N 97.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven