ATL: Ex INVEST 92L - Discussion

[Blinhart]

Give it 24 hours over water and if it stays together like this is gonna be at the minimum TD.
But it could pull a 99L and take forever to form.

[terstorm1012]

here we go! Atlantic season is very interesting this year so far.

[CrazyC83]

Given the atmospheric pattern, another analog might be Isabel?

[cycloneye]

Is only the beginning of the long journey thru the Atlantic Ocean.Let's see how this system does down the road with the many twists and turns that for sure will occur,but hopefully more clarity than ex 99L.

[johngaltfla]

That latest GFS run, which I just watched for TD9, is disturbing regarding 92L. A storm heading up the East Coast from the Bahamas into SC/GA border with that much time to intensify, wow. But it does fit this time of year. So much for the slow start, time to buckle up.

[Joe Snow]

I'm already betting no development before 60W--anybody else think we're in for a 99L part 2 given the model output?

I hope not. I can't deal with tracking invests for two weeks...

IMO this one fires off quick, 99L was gut wrenching watching every night.............

[Ptarmigan]

Julia?

[CrazyC83]

I also wonder...could this fire off lightning fast and become a named storm - or even hurricane - BEFORE Cabo Verde?

[johngaltfla]

Maybe a Bertha (1996) track ...
https://icons.wxug.com/data/dhc_archive_charts/at_1996_charts/at199602.gif

Hugo 1989 is what I had in mind. I was so happy I moved out of Charleston one month before it hit....
http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane ... /track.gif

[cycloneye]

Given the atmospheric pattern, another analog might be Isabel?

Also Earl of 2010 may be an analog.

[Bocadude85]

Obviously it's very early to think about a US landfall but I think the storms below may be decent analogs based on recent model runs.

1926 Miami hurricane
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1926_Mi ... _track.png

1928 Okechobee hurricane

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1928_Ok ... _track.png

Hurricane Donna 1960
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurrica ... _track.png

1947 Ft.Lauderdale hurricane

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1947_Fo ... _track.png

Hurricane David 1979

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurrica ... _track.png

Hurricane Dora 1964

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurrica ... _track.png

[floridasun78]

two thing about 92l i have say one anyone going islands this long weekend need check nhc before going because their maybe under watch if go towards islands and two we have see models do by friday look how their did 99l

[RL3AO]

I'm really curious to get an ascat pass to see the structure of this. Looks fantastic right now.

[floridasun78]

will this be call Cabo Verde storm?

[RL3AO]

will this be call Cabo Verde storm?

Cape Verde system.

[Soonercane]

I think these analogs are very cherry-picked, storms that develop this far east have strong tendencies to recurve, especially in the current era. This is very good considering all the destruction the long-track storms used to cause in previous eras dominated by strong Bermuda highs.

[RL3AO]

I think these analogs are very cherry-picked, storms that develop this far east have strong tendencies to recurve, especially in the current era. This is very good considering all the destruction the long-track storms used to cause in previous eras dominated by strong Bermuda highs.

Yes. Usually. In the next five days, there's nothing to allow this to gain latitude. After that, we're out there with the models but it's almost to the islands in 5 days.

[abajan]

will this be call Cabo Verde storm?

Cape Verde system.

FWIW In 2013 the Cape Verde islands requested that they be called Cabo Verde. I became curious about references to "Cabo Verde" in NHC discussions and researched it.

Read more ...

[ConvergenceZone]

I think these analogs are very cherry-picked, storms that develop this far east have strong tendencies to recurve, especially in the current era. This is very good considering all the destruction the long-track storms used to cause in previous eras dominated by strong Bermuda highs.

Exactly, although most of them do recurve, every once in a blue moon you do get one that doesn't. So we definitely need to watch it. Of course at this point it's way too early to say that this is going to recurve for sure or not, especially since one model showed it hitting Georgia. There will be of course tons of model changes over the next several days.

[RL3AO]

Didn't know that.