ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Yellow Evan]

Here we go

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 SEP 2016 Time : 164500 UTC
Lat : 13:29:55 N Lon : 71:04:24 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.8 / 972.8mb/ 84.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.8 4.8 6.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -42.2C Cloud Region Temp : -71.3C

Scene Type : EYE

[otowntiger]

Something to keep in mind, the more SW Matthew tracks the more the GFS has been shifting westward over the Bahamas closer to SE FL. IMO.

Also could mean that as it goes north there could be an element of NNE too to keep it away from the shield that protects the Florida Coast (at least there happily seems to be one that pops up)

I agree with this. The overall shape of the future track doesn't have to stay the same. Just because it gets further south/west of forecast points doesn't necessarily mean that overall track would be closer to the US East coast. It could just mean that it bends more, takes on a different shape, i.e. goes more north east than north to get to the same point out in the distance, all the while not really getting any closer to the coast. In fact I think the models are kind of suggesting that with the slight north/north east bend at the end heading ots. I know this is not always the case but just throwing out a little geometry to the discussion.

[TheStormExpert]

Moving along as expected according to the 2pm advisory.

[GCANE]

Looks to be a 30nm wide eye.

[TimeZone]

Based upon the models how does it look for NC?

As far as I know, none of the better models have it making landfall there. As of right now, I'd say it's looking far more likely to miss to the East, but I would keep a close eye on it, because a decent West shift could change that

[jlauderdal]

John Morales take:

https://www.facebook.com/johnmoralesnbc ... 6036444604

[KWT]

The official NHC track actually has a hint of E of N motion now days 4-5

Yeah it does, I think alot of models do bend it slightly to the east, though there are several real big hitters that actually bend it more NNW, GFS being one of them.

Mind you it already is south of the expected location so all these small motion changes can make a difference down the line.

[wxman57]

Based upon the models how does it look for NC?

I'd prepare for the worse and hope for the best there. It's all going to come down to timing of arrival of Matthew vs. the trof/front coming in from the west late next week. I think Matthew will pass offshore, but I wouldn't bet any money on that quite yet.

By the way, this slightly south of west motion was predicted since before Matthew entered the Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

Down to 957 mbs in second pass.

[RL3AO]

Meanwhile at NHC.

 https://twitter.com/mattlanza/status/781912614850793472

[ThetaE]

Probably not that far off.

[lando]

i pulled this from the long range models posted back on 09/19 18z,

strength is off but possibility?

[Aric Dunn]

Moving along as expected according to the 2pm advisory.

http://i64.tinypic.com/11brfqt.jpg

its been south of the 5pm advisory and the 11pm last advisory ... the 11am readjusted it again do to that as well as the forward motion. its been consistently farther south and slightly faster than each advisory by the time the next full package comes.

[tolakram]

You can see shockwaves in the WV loops (speed it up). Wondering if this is from Matthew or the Kelvin Wave.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=29&lon=-80&info=wv&zoom=4&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=wv1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=gray&map=none

[lando]

old long range model... i think it is possible, just stronger obviously

[otowntiger]

Based upon the models how does it look for NC?

I'd prepare for the worse and hope for the best there. It's all going to come down to timing of arrival of Matthew vs. the trof/front coming in from the west late next week. I think Matthew will pass offshore, but I wouldn't bet any money on that quite yet.

By the way, this slightly south of west motion was predicted since before Matthew entered the Caribbean.

Yep, and that is why I happen the think the models have done great with the overall track and dare I say intensity to this point. I remember over a week ago the pouch that was to become Matthew while still on the continent of Africa was predicted by many models to be an intense hurricane in the central Caribbean. And looky what we have today.

[RL3AO]

You can see shockwaves in the WV loops (speed it up). Wondering if this is from Matthew or the Kelvin Wave.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=29&lon=-80&info=wv&zoom=4&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=wv1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=gray&map=none

Likely gravity waves from Matthew. Fairly typical with strong convection.

[tolakram]

old long range model... i think it is possible, just stronger obviously

lando,

neither of those older runs have the giant cutoff low that is now spinning over the Ohio valley. Those runs are too old and don't represent the current conditions.

[Aric Dunn]

remember until the magical upper low thats supposed to form in the eastern gulf materializes its all fair game roughly in 48 hours that feature should begin to show up helping to drive it northward. if not or its farther west then matthew will also go farther west

[hurricaneCW]

Highly unlikely but not completely implausible scenario is a Florida brushby or hit, a NC brush by or hit and then a capture that impacts the NE. Can you imagine if something like that happened.