ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Stormcenter]

Matthew is not suppose to still be moving WSW but it obviously is. It has to make you wonder just a bit.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/h5-loop-vis.html

[Yellow Evan]

Likely T5.5 now actually. MG eye surrounded by W and B CDO. This will be T6.5 in a short order.

[KWT]

Matthew is not suppose to still be moving WSW but it obviously is. It has to make you wonder just a bit.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/h5-loop-vis.html

Well the models to be fair, especially UKMO DID forecast quite a long WSW trek lasting the best part of 24hrs, and we are still well within that timeframe. If its still going WSW past 13N then it does become more interesting!

[NDG]

Something to keep in mind, the more SW Matthew tracks the more the GFS has been shifting westward over the Bahamas closer to SE FL. IMO.

[1900hurricane]

ADT is now responding to the emerging IR eye too. Additionally, SATCON is on the rise. Based on objective measurements and trends from geostationary satellite, polar orbiting satellites, and recon, I wouldn't be surprised to see something like 115 kt/948 mb by 00Z.

[TheStormExpert]

For anyone who did not see this, exert from the last paragraph of the 11am Discussion.

It is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast
errors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5.
Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts
from Matthew in Florida.

[tgenius]

At the moment, I'm not overly concerned of a SFL impact, though I am watching that movement like a hawk.. the further West he goes before turning could change everything real quick. :/

[tropicwatch]

Already south of forecast track.

[bamajammer4eva]

Steering For storms with 950-969 mb

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... om=Z&time=

[img]http://i.imgur.com/eey2SWn.gif

That could get this more SW than any model foresees

Yeah strictly looking at that it would appear possible to make it to EPAC though the steering changes constantly of course

[fci]

Something to keep in mind, the more SW Matthew tracks the more the GFS has been shifting westward over the Bahamas closer to SE FL. IMO.

Also could mean that as it goes north there could be an element of NNE too to keep it away from the shield that protects the Florida Coast (at least there happily seems to be one that pops up)

[JaxGator]

Something to keep in mind, the more SW Matthew tracks the more the GFS has been shifting westward over the Bahamas closer to SE FL. IMO.

I was thinking the same thing too. Strong ridge overhead.. And the data from "Gonzo" also helped as well.

[TheDreamTraveler]

For anyone who did not see this, exert from the last paragraph of the 11am Discussion.

It is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast
errors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5.
Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts
from Matthew in Florida.

Yeah, I think a big reason people think Florida is all in the clear is because they see the latest runs of the computer models and see that it doesn't hit them. Even though it gets extremely close. Close enough that any slight changes could potentially effect them. That's why nobody should let their guard down even if the threat to Florida isn't high. Certainty is still not as good as it could be yet.

[centuryv58]

For anyone who did not see this, exert from the last paragraph of the 11am Discussion.

It is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast
errors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5.
Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts
from Matthew in Florida.

Yeah, I think a big reason people think Florida is all in the clear is because they see the latest runs of the computer models and see that it doesn't hit them. Even though it gets extremely close. Close enough that any slight changes could potentially effect them. That's why nobody should let their guard down even if the threat to Florida isn't high. Certainty is still not as good as it could be yet.

This was before the last GFS run. Threat to FL is greater now.

[KWT]

Still think the odds of a direct landfalling hurricane on the east coast of Florida is fairly low but its a close enough call to need really close watching, especially if it takes the north turn a little slower than expected.

[tolakram]

Latest from the FTP site. Putting on a show now.

[KWT]

Super image tolakram, Matthew's eye really looking nicely defined in that image, its come on quite alot in the last 4-6hrs, not surprising it dropped 10mbs so quickly.

[Emmett_Brown]

The official NHC track actually has a hint of E of N motion now days 4-5

[tolakram]

The big picture

[emeraldislenc]

Based upon the models how does it look for NC?

[tolakram]

Based upon the models how does it look for NC?

Close. Won't know for a few more days, if not longer.