ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurrilurker]

Remember, just 24 hours ago NHC was forecasting 75kt winds for this time. We're up to 100kt officially and probably higher right now. They don't have a great handle on the intensity and they may not have a great handle on the track either. I don't put that much stock in the models and forecasts at this point, this might be one of those storms that creates its own conditions and does the unexpected in the face of all scientific evidence. It's been pushing a whole lot of dry air and shear in front of it to the west for a long time now and shrugged it off.

Regardless of when this turn happens, it looks like Cuba, Haiti, and the Bahamas are probably in for some nasty conditions and flooding potential. If I lived in any of those places I'd be stocking up on supplies and scouting shelters right now. Jamaica is not in the clear either, they could get hit hard it it takes longer to turn.

[chris_fit]

Eye is contracting according to this. Not good.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... 2hr_03.gif

Looks like it also stopped moving in a southerly direction as well.

Recon confirmed otherwise - still a S component

[TheDreamTraveler]

I wouldn't be surprised to see this get up to high cat 4 strength given what we've seeing right this second. And all this without having a decent eye on the thing yet.

[terstorm1012]

so far the forecasts have been pretty on, including the WSW motion (other than intensity, which we've never really had a grasp on). I have a tough time seeing this miss Jamaica and I think it might be a direct hit there, which would be devastating.
After that I think across Cuba around Guantanamo and then into the Bahamas. Might miss Florida by inches. I wouldn't be off my guard if I lived in Florida just yet.

[tolakram]

960mb

[Yellow Evan]

Likely around 105 knots based on recon. Based on FL/SFMR ratio, likely still intensifying.

[tolakram]

Latest

[TheStormExpert]

How low can he go!?

[drezee]

Latest recon pass supports an initial intensity of around 95 kt. The pressure seems to have leveled off though which suggests RI may have came to an end.

since when is a 3 mb drop in 1.6 hours leveling off??? 1.8+ mbar/hr

NHC: a drop of 1.75 mbar/hour or 42 mbars in a day
Still RI...

Still RI down 8 more MB!!!

[KWT]

Looks like the NHC are going to have to up the intensity forecast, the eye is popping out nicely and the structure looks great. Once it clears SA I think everything it going to come together for a strong major hurricane.

[NDG]

VIS loop

Looks to be pulling in some dry air from SA.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=14&lon=-71&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=7&mapcolor=gray&map=county

Zoomed in.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=14&lon=-71&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=12&mapcolor=gray&map=county

Atmosphere over northern S.A. is fairly moist, majority of dry air is to the NW of Matthew, if anything it looks like is pulling in some moisture from the Deep tropical regions of S.A.

[KWT]

Recon confirmed otherwise - still a S component

Yep still got a decent WSW motion to it, not totally unexpected given the models but it will become more impressive if it were to carry on for too much longer.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Latest

Been waiting to see the eye fully pop out. You don't often see cat 3 hurricanes without a decent looking eye on satellite.

[p1nheadlarry]

so far the forecasts have been pretty on, including the WSW motion (other than intensity, which we've never really had a grasp on). I have a tough time seeing this miss Jamaica and I think it might be a direct hit there, which would be devastating.
After that I think across Cuba around Guantanamo and then into the Bahamas. Might miss Florida by inches. I wouldn't be off my guard if I lived in Florida just yet.

I think the eyewall will affect the eastern tip of Jamaica. Any more west and Kingston (looked it up last night, Kingston faces south on the coast towards the eastern end of the island) could take a direct hit.

[Yellow Evan]

Worth noting we're running over a half T number ahead of Dvorak here. Given this hasn't cleared out an eye, and is at best a T5.0 via a CDO pattern; the JTWC would likely have this at T3.5-T4.5.

[GCANE]

Recon's Radar

[TimeZone]

Latest

Boy did he filter that dry-air out fast. Matthew isn't playing any games!

[KWT]

Super image GCANE, that image really shows why the NW quadrant of the hurricane is getting such decent winds.

Still open eyewall more or less to the south, which may clear and tighten up as it moves away from S.America.

[bamajammer4eva]

Steering For storms with 950-969 mb

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... om=Z&time=

[Hurricaneman]

Steering For storms with 950-969 mb

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... om=Z&time=

That could get this more SW than any model foresees