ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Yellow Evan]

ADT keeps missing the eye. When we need it the most.

At this point I think the steering influences around the storm are more important than the exact conditions at the eye, as we know it's a powerful storm that has organized, but it's not an immediate threat to land. We really to know where it's going. That said, of course it would be nice if we got eye data.

Yea, but the intensity of the storm more often than not is the exciting part IMO.

[Michele B]

ADT keeps missing the eye. When we need it the most.

At this point I think the steering influences around the storm are more important than the exact conditions at the eye, as we know it's a powerful storm that has organized, but it's not an immediate threat to land. We really to know where it's going. That said, of course it would be nice if we got eye data.

Yea, but the intensity of the storm more often than not is the exciting part IMO.

YES, this thing is a monster, albeit awesome in its own way.

[JaxGator]

Eye is contracting according to this. Not good.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... 2hr_03.gif

[psyclone]

Matthew is a scary storm. glad it's not coming toward me. The current track continues to look good for peninsular florida. No one in the state has a greater than 10% chance of TS winds per the 11 am advisory...and that 10% is right on the southeast coast. everyone else is 5% or less. The storm will have to deviate a good bit west from the current track for that to change...so we do still have a respectable margin of safety at this point.

[pcolaman]

Now seeing that the steering current are stronger to the sw,would it have the chance to miss going to the north and head wsw into land ?

[Michele B]

Eye is contracting according to this. Not good.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... 2hr_03.gif

No. Means more strengthening.

[gatorcane]

Matthew is a scary storm. glad it's not coming toward me. The current track continues to look good for peninsular florida. No one in the state has a greater than 10% chance of TS winds per the 11 am advisory...and that 10% is right on the southeast coast. everyone else is 5% or less. The storm will have to deviate a good bit west from the current track for that to change...so we do still have a respectable margin of safety at this point.

So far the 12Z GFS and CMC have slight shifts west in the Bahamas with slight NNW instead of due N movement.

[Kazmit]

The NHC has been far too conservative with the intensity of Matthew. As gatorcane put it, it's likely that this becomes a Cat 4 after the shear dies down. If it can intensify like this with high shear, I hate to see what would happen with low shear. A Cat 5 is less likely, but anything can happen...

[jlauderdal]

that g4 data really helped clarify matters...not saying they shouldnt fly them but its not a silver bullet in these complicated setups...next 24 hours critical as to the turn then what happens with land interaction then ridging or non risging after cuba..its an obstacle course to say the least

[JaxGator]

Eye is contracting according to this. Not good.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... 2hr_03.gif

No. Means more strengthening.

I know that. Should have worded it differently but the words "not good" should be enough to imply it's strengthening.

[tolakram]

The overly conservative intensity forecasts by the NHC have been unacceptable. Even with plenty of data arguing that it would be stronger, they consistently go against it.

Really? It was explained in pretty good detail in the discussion. Care to comment on that rather than making overly broad criticisms?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Looks like Matthew is spitting out some pretty big outflow boundaries.

[tolakram]

VIS loop

Looks to be pulling in some dry air from SA.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=14&lon=-71&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=7&mapcolor=gray&map=county

Zoomed in.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=14&lon=-71&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=12&mapcolor=gray&map=county

[galaxy401]

Eye is contracting according to this. Not good.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... 2hr_03.gif

Looks like it also stopped moving in a southerly direction as well.

[jdjaguar]

Eye is contracting according to this. Not good.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... 2hr_03.gif

No. Means more strengthening.

I know that. Should have worded it differently but the words "not good" should be enough to imply it's strengthening.

they should, but as strange as it may sound to people like you and I who live in hurricane zones, there are posters who are actually disappointed
if a storm doesn't strengthen.

[KWT]

Strcture looks great but I can see the logic behind it holding strength where it is at for the next 24hrs as it takes its closest approach to SA.

The forecast of a category-3 into the central Caribbean islands is certainly eye raising.

[tolakram]

latest

[ThetaE]

First recon pass recorded a pressure of 959 mb. We'll see what the dropsonde/VDM says.

[Cainer]

Pressure down to 960 from the NOAA plane. Highest SMFR were 104-105 knots, but 105 might have been flagged.

[KWT]

First recon pass recorded a pressure of 959 mb. We'll see what the dropsonde/VDM says.

So its still deepening from the looks of things. Have to say given the eye is starting to pop on Vis.imagery, not massively surprising to find it has deepened, if the eye was to really pop it'd go down into the 940s I'd have thought.