ATL: KARL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

ECMWF run ends as a 940 MB strong hurricane moving WNW to NW.

[WeatherEmperor]

Looks like we have another round of GFS vs Euro coming up with TD12. Gfs keeps TD12 very weak and almost dissipates it in the long range near 240hrs whereas the Euro blows this up to a Cat3/Cat4 a few hundred miles east of the Bahamas. Could there be another epic bust in order for the Euro? Or will it shock us all and be right? Stay tuned

[Kazmit]

12z model track guidances... seems to have moved out of the Caribbean.

[SFLcane]

Trof ready there to scoop it up and out. Overall pattern as the last 3,000 days is for a recurve into open Atlantic. Oh yea if it even survives the incredibly favorable mdr.

[Emmett_Brown]

TVCN bending slightly south at the end

[Kazmit]

I'm predicting a somewhat late recurve starting after it passes Puerto Rico/Hispaniola. Perhaps a pass between the East Coast and Bermuda as it moves northwest on the way out.

[TimeZone]

Trof ready there to scoop it up and out. Overall pattern as the last 3,000 days is for a recurve into open Atlantic. Oh yea if it even survives the incredibly favorable mdr.

So it appears that it'll be another recurve long away from the mainland? Not even a threat to Atlantic Canada?

[setexholmes]

I have a feeling, just a feeling that this won't recurve. The euro has a good high pressure ridge building that should keep it south and west. I don't buy the euros intensity though, I would guess TS at best perhaps making it into the GOM. We shall see though.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Trough coming to scoop it up on the ECMWF. Trend has been west but I think the only threat to land after looking at the models is to Bermuda. Still a ways out but the pattern of weak US hit or OTS seems the most likely given the trends over the last 10 years.

[crownweather]

Since 1985 has been brought up as a analog year by some on here. FWIW, check out the track of Gloria which did struggle mightily east of the Lesser Antilles and did not reach peak intensity until it was just east of the Bahamas. To me, 12Z Euro looks like a Gloria redux.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/776499664598212608

[JaxGator]

Looks like we have another round of GFS vs Euro coming up with TD12. Gfs keeps TD12 very weak and almost dissipates it in the long range near 240hrs whereas the Euro blows this up to a Cat3/Cat4 a few hundred miles east of the Bahamas. Could there be another epic bust in order for the Euro? Or will it shock us all and be right? Stay tuned

It depends sometimes doesn't it? With the special case of Hermine, both models were both right and wrong at 2 different occasions. GFS was right when Hermine to be entered the Bahamas and kept it weak and the Euro was right about her being a hurricane hitting the Big Bend. Something has to give here. We'll see what happens..

[TheStormExpert]

Were talking the same Euro that has been very overly bullish with every wave that leaves Africa this season, right?

[Emmett_Brown]

Euro trended west compared to yesterday

[xcool22]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

NO WORRY IT WILL GO OUT TO SEA IMO

[Kazmit]

Trof ready there to scoop it up and out. Overall pattern as the last 3,000 days is for a recurve into open Atlantic. Oh yea if it even survives the incredibly favorable mdr.

So it appears that it'll be another recurve long away from the mainland? Not even a threat to Atlantic Canada?

Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, Puerto Rico, or the Leewards could be affected by this.

[terstorm1012]

I'm about 70/30 on recurve with this one. I'll check back with it on Sunday. Plenty of time to watch it.

[TheStormExpert]

I'd side with the GFS on this one with the way the season is going so far, nothing more than a weakening tropical depression from here on out.

[Kazmit]

Weather Underground models. Some show a recurve into Bermuda, and some continue it west.

[JaxGator]

Weather Underground models. Some show a recurve into Bermuda, and some continue it west.

Both the GFS and Euro take a similar path for now regardless of intensity, so unless it fades or its energy is still intact, we'll still have to keep an eye on it.