ATL: JULIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[LarryWx]

look going poof likely we hear last about 93l at 2am i think it try but could not become td when was east leewards on thur

The tropics can be very humbling from a forecasting standpoint. Remember that even yesterday's 0Z Euro had this as a TC hitting FL. Yes, the King had it and still had it as a closed sfc low today/tonight. Then again, that's what makes the tropics extra fascinating to me. If they were more predictable, I doubt we'd have the same degree of interesting forecasting related discussions/debates.

It certainly has a poof look this evening. As a result, I've decided to drop from a 30% to 20% chance for TC genesis from this.

I still hope FL and other posters will get decent rain early next week from this.

[rickybobby]

I was looking forward to a day off work and school on Tuesday.

[boca]

93L looks like it might be coming back from the dead

[northjaxpro]

93L looks like it might be coming back from the dead

Well, whatever slim possibility this system has to come back to life, we will find out. Convection has to sustain, and not die off, as it has been doing the past few days. If there is anything resembling a wave trying to organize, then today has to be it. True do or die time for 93L so.to speak I guess.

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms have increased with a disturbance located
near the southeastern Bahamas. However, there are still no signs of
a surface circulation, and conditions do not appear conducive for
significant development of this disturbance while it moves west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Heavy rainfall is possible over
portions of the Bahamas today and on Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

[Emmett_Brown]

A more circular appearance now. It will be interesting to watch the visibles today. This thing is not dead yet.

[LarryWx]

^This is not surprising considering the combo of DMAX and it having better/pretty favorable conditions of light shear along with very warm SST's and ample moisture. I'm keeping TC formation chances at 20% over the next 48 hours for now despite the NHC having just lowered them to near 0%. I do wonder based on this look if it does now actually have a weak closed surface circulation. Let's see what a few more hours of visible pics show.

[northjaxpro]

^This is not surprising considering the combo of DMAX and it having better/pretty favorable conditions of light shear along with very warm SST's and ample moisture. I'm keeping TC formation chances at 20% over the next 48 hours for now despite the NHC having just lowered them to near 0%.

Well if indeed shear has subsided in the Bahamas, 93L may have a puncher's chance to organize during the next couple of days. The trough axis just off the Florida East Coast does appear to be filling just a bit on satellite imagery currently.

[LarryWx]

^This is not surprising considering the combo of DMAX and it having better/pretty favorable conditions of light shear along with very warm SST's and ample moisture. I'm keeping TC formation chances at 20% over the next 48 hours for now despite the NHC having just lowered them to near 0%.

Well if indeed shear has subsided in the Bahamas, 93L may have a puncher's chance to organize during the next couple of days. The trough axis just off the Florida East Coast does appear to be filling just a bit on satellite imagery currently.

Per the model consensus, the shear is lightest/most favorable til late tonight and maybe as far out as 24 hours from now fwiw. So, for that reason, I think through about tonight is do or die time to develop.

[northjaxpro]

I agree with you, which I alluded to above earlier this morning about it being do or die time right now for 93L.

[Emmett_Brown]

I agree that today is the time frame. The upper level winds are lighter now. If the system generates enough convection today, it can form it's own anti cyclone, and the anticyclone can become the more dominant upper air feature, negating light shear.

[LarryWx]

IF there is already a weak surface circulation developing (visible loop sure does look mighty suspicious but hard to tell just yet), my guess is that it would be near 23-24N, 71-72W.

I'd love to see buoy data from the area.

If it still looks this good through 1PM or so, I'd have to think the NHC would consider a raise of chances back up from the near 0% of the 8AM TWO.

[LarryWx]

I've noticed another long curved low level outflow boundary moving easterly over the last couple of hours from the area near the suspected center. Is this still a sign of dry air?

[tpr1967]

I've noticed another long curved low level outflow boundary moving easterly over the last couple of hours from the area near the suspected center. Is this still a sign of dry air?

That outflow boundary is not a good sign for development.

[floridasun78]

it look want to look better but east side storms weakling

[AutoPenalti]

It's trying to stack up.

[tolakram]

I don't think there's anything at the surface yet to stack.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=23&lon=-73&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10&mapcolor=yellow

[LarryWx]

Wisely, the NHC just raised the chances for a TC from 0% to 10% in the 2PM TWO.

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a disturbance
near the central and southeastern Bahamas. However, surface
pressures are high, and there are still no signs of a surface
circulation. Conditions do not appear conducive for significant
development of this disturbance while it moves west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph. Locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of
the Bahamas today and on Monday, and these rains are likely to
spread over portions of the Florida peninsula by Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

[LarryWx]

Per the visible loop, IF there is a LLC, my guess is that it is near 23.5-24N, 72.5-73W. I see what look like low clouds rotating westward below that.