ATL: GASTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Kazmit]

What are the SST's east of Bermuda? A bit farther west and this could be their worst storm in recorded history...

Also, I'd really watch this into Newfoundland at the end of the line. That GFS wants to place a 920mb storm not far off Cape Race, which would be much larger and deeper than Igor. It doesn't seem realistic, but who knows.

Just east of Bermuda would be about 83-86 degrees Fahrenheit. Quite warm indeed.

[CrazyC83]

interesting that NHC is actually slightly decreasing the intensity on days 4 and 5 due to shear despite global model guidance.

I'm a bit surprised too, but I do think this could be a major hurricane well before then.

[abajan]

Pretty healthy looking. And according to the NHC's discussion, they expect it to become a hurricane in less than two days time.

[Hammy]

interesting that NHC is actually slightly decreasing the intensity on days 4 and 5 due to shear despite global model guidance.

I'm a bit surprised too, but I do think this could be a major hurricane well before then.

I was surprised as well and checked the models after. The GFS/Euro from earlier did show brief weakening around the 96-120 hour period--the explosive intensification isn't until after 120 hours.

[NDG]

Just imagine how the Atlantic might be if the MJO was actually in a favorable region for the Atlantic.

I think more study has to be done on how the MJO influences the Atlantic Basin during the heart of the hurricane season. Does it really matter during the heart of the hurricane season, is my question.
I remember back in 2013 everyone was waiting for the MJO to visit the Atlantic Basin and Africa during the the heart of the hurricane season and as many of you recall it did not do anything.

[Hammy]

GFS has a major hurricane at 120 hours.

edit: nine consecutive Cat 5 runs, and four consecutive ones now that show it at Cat 5 18z on Tuesday.

[Hammy]

Just imagine how the Atlantic might be if the MJO was actually in a favorable region for the Atlantic.

I think more study has to be done on how the MJO influences the Atlantic Basin during the heart of the hurricane season. Does it really matter during the heart of the hurricane season, is my question.
I remember back in 2013 everyone was waiting for the MJO to visit the Atlantic Basin and Africa during the the heart of the hurricane season and as many of you recall it did not do anything.

2013 was an odd situation, it was basically not going to help no matter what--the upper pattern never left springtime. 2014 had a much more prominent effect though--every time it would come around, a hurricane would form.

[Macrocane]

GFDL and HWRF also show some back and forth with the intensity between 96-120 h, so I guess the intensity forecast is OK. I will be interesting to see how it verifies in the next few days.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The NHC forecast is probably too conservative throughout the next 5 days, but the theme of it weakening on days 4 and 5 makes sense. Shear should actually become quite strong as it runs into an upper-level low. That shear should be pretty short-lived as the upper low backs away though, and TD Seven should have no issues becoming a Cat 4 hurricane by days 7 and 8.

[Kazmit]

The NHC forecast is probably too conservative throughout the next 5 days, but the theme of it weakening on days 4 and 5 makes sense. Shear should actually become quite strong as it runs into an upper-level low. That shear should be pretty short-lived as the upper low backs away though, and TD Seven should have no issues becoming a Cat 4 hurricane by days 7 and 8.

Yeah, I think they're being too conservative in terms of intensity. I think they might raise the intensities for the 11pm advisory, because most models show a major.

[TJRE]

Loop
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... E5new.html

major mojo with pushing the SAL away from it's core !!!

[tolakram]

Very impressive looking. Saved loop.

[cycloneye]

Gaston is around the corner.Looking great with superb outflow.

[p1nheadlarry]

:uarrow: Gaston is around the corner.Looking great with superb outflow.

Has a couple days before it hits higher shear to keep this going, might fight it off fairly well. I hope it becomes a harmless thing of beauty.

[CrazyC83]

TXNT24 KNES 221830
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90L)

B. 22/1800Z

C. 12.1N

D. 27.9W

E. THREE/MET-10

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS 5/10 ON LOG10 SPIRAL FOR A DT OF
2.5. MET=1.5 AND PT=1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIM

[Kazmit]

Nice SAT image of TD 7 uploaded to Wikipedia today.

[NotoSans]

00Z best track up to 35 kt. Maybe Gaston at 03Z?

AL, 07, 2016082300, , BEST, 0, 124N, 299W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 30, 30, 30, 1014, 300, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SEVEN, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,

[psyclone]

This looks like something you'd see in the west pac. looks like a whopper in the making

[cycloneye]

Gaston at 11 PM.

Location: 12.4°N 29.9°W
Maximum Winds: 35 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1014 mb
Radius of Circulation: 300 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 40 NM
Eye Diameter: N/A

[Kazmit]

This looks like something you'd see in the west pac. looks like a whopper in the making

Just what I was thinking... This could be a big one.