ATL: FIONA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[lrak]

Looks like it's already a TD, to me. ...

Going by the last few frames of the visible loop, I agree:

http://i.imgur.com/Ovqu7sy.gif

It has the look.

It's also a somewhat big, I hope it does dissipate.

[NDG]

 https://twitter.com/JMGarciaRivera/status/765631514990305282

No doubt the models agree through the next 48 hrs but after 48-72 hrs is when the GFS and Euro begin to differ. The Euro shows the subtropical ridge bridge across the Atlantic north of the system and strengthen north of it, forcing it go more westward, but I am sure that with the Euro showing 98L to be weaker it has something to do with a more westward track that it forecast.

[Hammy]

Any chance this gets upgraded by 11 tonight if the convection holds? It looks like it's upgrade-able but again NHC probably waiting for convection to persist longer.

[lrak]

Any chance this gets upgraded by 11 tonight if the convection holds? It looks like it's upgrade-able but again NHC probably waiting for convection to persist longer.

The last few loops show a nice little red dot over what may be the center.

[Caneman12]

Any chance this gets upgraded by 11 tonight if the convection holds? It looks like it's upgrade-able but again NHC probably waiting for convection to persist longer.

Yes this will Likely be upgraded tonight

[gatorcane]

Last visible shot of the day. You can see the SAL off to the northeast is intruding on this system (milky gray color to the clouds on the N and NE sides of the circulation).

The SAL is keeping this system in check and may be why the Euro is not really deepening this system much any longer.

[gatorcane]

I think we need to keep in mind models beyond a week are not that reliable and sometimes not even beyond a few days (as we just saw where just a few days ago the models showed squat coming out of this invest).

Despite the majority of the models recurving this into the Central Atlantic in their medium and long-range runs, there is still a little doubt because of how deep this system ends up becoming within the next 5 days.

If it stays shallow like the ECMWF shows, it will get pushed much further west with the low-level trades and development could happen further down the road if better conditions are found. We don't know for sure what the steering pattern will be at that time.

[Kazmit]

Starting to organize and convection is on the increase. Should become Fiona tomorrow, and the NHC are supposed to start advisories tomorrow too.

[SouthDadeFish]

Looks like a TC to me. Probably just waiting on a confirmed LLC.

[Gustywind]

Increasing numbers for 98L...

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
16/1745 UTC 11.4N 32.5W T1.5/1.5 98L

[Kazmit]

It looks great already, one of the best looking waves I've ever seen.

[Caneman12]

It looks great already, one of the best looking waves I've ever seen.

I have seen better this is just one of the better looking ones. Should be a depression by tomorrow.

[weathaguyry]

I really think that 98-L is already a TD, it has the look, and I am curious to see what the NHC will say in the 8PM TWO

[Hammy]

I really think that 98-L is already a TD, it has the look, and I am curious to see what the NHC will say in the 8PM TWO

I can easily imagine the line "if this trend continues, advisories will be initiated later" showing up on the 8pm.

[Nimbus]

I really think that 98-L is already a TD, it has the look, and I am curious to see what the NHC will say in the 8PM TWO

I can easily imagine the line "if this trend continues, advisories will be initiated later" showing up on the 8pm.

The NHC is seeing the same thing we all are seeing on storm2K.
We have the luxury of posting our guesses and speculations without concern for any possible future effects of making bad forecast. Maybe they haven't fully ruled out this system missing the weakness?

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/765674994890338308

[Alyono]

large Bermuda low forces this to recurve well east of Bermuda in the 18Z MU

[Alyono]

narrowly misses Newfoundland

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

It looks great already, one of the best looking waves I've ever seen.

compared to 96L, this one looks so put together. 96 was a hot mess lol. still slightly sloppy and there have been much more organized waves come off in the past just clearly not in recent memory.

[JaxGator]

A TCFA (Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert) has been issued for 98L. Site won't let me post image.