CPAC: DARBY - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Latest frame appears to be a T4.5 but at the same time, the eye just needs to warm a touch and the LG on the ENE side needs to thicken just a little, and Darby would then warrant a T5.5.

Cloud tops are nowhere near -80C. Most of the CDO has -55C to -65C cloud tops. The eye temp is slightly lower than 10C.

[Alyono]

becoming an annular cat 2

not the least bit surprised

[Yellow Evan]

T5.0 on this frame but barely.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS and ECMWF steering differences. GFS seems to have a stronger cutoff low that creates a weakness that turns 6E and allows a more northerly movement. ECMWF has a much stronger ridge.

[Kingarabian]

200hrs out it's all about timing. Both solutions could pose a big problem for Hawaii.

[tolakram]

Live visible loop

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-W%20PACUS&lat=17&lon=-122&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&type=Animation&quality=85&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=14

[Kingarabian]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 JUL 2016 Time : 223000 UTC
Lat : 16:56:00 N Lon : 121:27:10 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.3 / 965.5mb/ 97.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.1 5.5 5.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 21 km

Center Temp : +1.6C Cloud Region Temp : -60.9C

Scene Type : EYE

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 JUL 2016 Time : 230000 UTC
Lat : 17:03:32 N Lon : 121:31:26 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.3 / 965.5mb/ 97.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.1 5.5 5.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 20 km

Center Temp : +2.8C Cloud Region Temp : -61.0C

Scene Type : EYE

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 JUL 2016 Time : 233000 UTC
Lat : 17:05:02 N Lon : 121:41:59 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.3 / 965.4mb/ 97.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.2 5.5 5.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km

Center Temp : -4.4C Cloud Region Temp : -61.8C

Scene Type : EYE

[Ntxw]

After fighting off hurdles, she finally is worthy of the other Darby's. I'd like to see the eye to hold together a little more and some colder tops but I'd say she's a major don't you think?

[Yellow Evan]

Dvorak aside, I'd say this is around 95 knots.

[Kingarabian]

After fighting off hurdles, she finally is worthy of the other Darby's. I'd like to see the eye to hold together a little more and some colder tops but I'd say she's a major don't you think?

[img]http://i65.tinypic.com/2enu4hf.gif[img]

Very close to it. Let's see if it holds itself together for a few more hours. Its known to have a hard time doing so. But the CDO has definitely gotten thicker.

[Yellow Evan]

Dvorak wise, this is borderline between T4.5 and T5.0. In reality given the persistence and relative circularity of the eye, Dvorak is likely on the low side, so I'm not
trying to contradict myself

[Yellow Evan]

Code: Select all

16/0000 UTC   17.1N    121.7W       T4.5/5.0         DARBY -- East Pacific

[Kingarabian]

Eye is beginning to cool though. I think it'll remain at 90kts.

[Kingarabian]

The -70C tops just need wrap around the eye and we'll likely have our 2nd major of the season.

[Yellow Evan]

Or the eye can just warm.

[Yellow Evan]

Eye cooling, but this seems to be moving over warmer waters, hence the thicker CDO.

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 16 JUL 2016 Time : 000000 UTC
Lat : 17:00:28 N Lon : 121:40:01 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.3 / 965.5mb/ 97.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.3 5.5 5.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 km

Center Temp : -20.3C Cloud Region Temp : -63.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

[Yellow Evan]

Code: Select all

 
EP, 05, 201607160000,  10, DVTS,         CI,  , 1710N, 12170W,      , 1,  90, 2,     ,  ,     ,    ,     ,     ,     ,     ,     ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,    ,    , E,   SAB,  MT,  VIM, 1, 4550 /////,      ,   , GOES15, LLCC, T, DT=4.5 BO EYE  MET=5.0 PT=4.5 FTBO DT
EP, 05, 201607160000,  10, DVTS,         CI,  , 1710N, 12170W,      , 1,  90, 2,  970, 2, DVRK,    ,     ,     ,     ,     ,     ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,    ,    , E,  TAFB,  HC,   VI, 1, 4550 /////,      ,   , GOES15,  CSC, T,


[Yellow Evan]

90 knots again

Code: Select all

,
EP, 05, 2016071600,   , BEST,   0, 171N, 1217W,  90,  972, HU,  34, NEQ,  100,   70,   70,   80, 1010,  240,  20,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,      DARBY, D,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 011,
EP, 05, 2016071600,   , BEST,   0, 171N, 1217W,  90,  972, HU,  50, NEQ,   50,   40,   30,   40, 1010,  240,  20,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,      DARBY, D,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 011,
EP, 05, 2016071600,   , BEST,   0, 171N, 1217W,  90,  972, HU,  64, NEQ,   30,   20,   15,   25, 1010,  240,  20,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,      DARBY, D,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 011,