ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/781495392085086208

[bqknight]

The storm appears to be taking a bit of a WSW dive...but that may just be an illusion of the LLC racing ahead of the storm.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Yeah it appears to be going SW at the moment. Not sure if it is an illusion or not.

[tpr1967]

Yeah it appears to be going SW at the moment. Not sure if it is an illusion or not.

It might be an Illusion recon fixes show a slightly N of West motion, Next pass coming soon we shall see.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

[La Sirena]

Yeah it appears to be going SW at the moment. Not sure if it is an illusion or not.

Both the Euro and GFS anticipated the sw movement I believe. It preceded the N-NW turn.

[SFLcane]

Wow! Insane naked swirl what a year lol. This just might get further westward

[tolakram]

It's just at the bottom of the faster scanning CONUS view.

Speed up for full effect.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=14&lon=-63&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=23&mapcolor=yellow

[Blown Away]

Yeah it appears to be going SW at the moment. Not sure if it is an illusion or not.

Looks like a slight S of W motion...

06z GFS:
5pm Today Matt at 991mb, Cat 1 Hurricane...
11pm Today Matt at 984mb, Cat 1 bordering on Cat 2...

Lots of work to do to hit those marks IMO...

[Steve]

Anyone got any guesses on contribution to ACE? If the GFS is right, it will be up near the NE in the 10-11 day range. That should account for plenty. If the ECMWF timing is right, it could be 40+, particularly if it hangs around for 5 or more days as a major. Hell, it could end up in the Top few ACE storms of the last 10 years. In any event, it appears that Matthew and whatever comes after it should put us at least up near the 100 mark if not possibly higher than that. It didn't always look that way early as many members were downplaying this season on a daily basis.

[LarryWx]

Here are many analogs of Matthew. These are most of, if not all, TC's that on record existed at 15N or further south while at least at some points between 50W and 60W at some time 9/25-10/31 and that didn't dissipate east of the Lesser Antilles. What did they do as regards the CONUS? (R = recurve; D = dissipate; S = moved inland south of the CONUS; H = hit on CONUS; ** = closest analogs based on progged track)


1) #4 of 1876: S http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

2) #6 of 1879: H on GOM coast http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

3) #8 of 1889: R http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

4) #7 of 1892: S http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

5) #6 of 1894: R http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

6) #5 of 1895: R (just missed SE FL) http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

7) #6 of 1896: R http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

8) #9 of 1898: R ((just missed SE FL) http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

9)#11 of 1901: R http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

10) #13 of 1916: R http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

11)#14 of 1932***: R http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

12)#9 of 1943: R http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

13)#11 of 1944: R http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

14) Hazel of 1954***: H on NC http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

15) Daisy of 1962: R http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

16) Flora of 1963: R http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

17) Judith of 1966: D http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

18)Edith of 1967: R http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

19)Gertrude of 1974: D http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

20)Sebastian of 1995:D http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

21) Jose of 1999: R http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

22) Joyce of 2000: D http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

23) Iris of 2001: S http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

24) Jerry of 2001: D http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

25) Tomas of 2010***:R http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif


Tally: 25 storms, 15 recurves, 5 dissipations, 3 hit south of the CONUS, and only 2 CONUS hit (Hazel). Closest analogs per track progs: 1932, 1954, 2010


So, climo is obviously not on the side of a CONUS hit (only 2 hits out of 25 analog storms or 8% of the analogs) though that, of course, doesn't mean there's no chance for that. Actually, I feel that the chance for a CONUS hit is far greater than 8%. I think it is currently more like 33% based on modeled close calls to especially the NC to NE corridor and because one of the three closest analogs (1932, 1954, 2010) did hit the CONUS. Many of the climo tracks can immediately be disqualified due to them being so different right from the start.


Edit: Also, note that two of the tracks only barely missed SE FL


****Edited again to add three more storms that were inadvertently left off the list: #4 of 1876 (hit south of the CONUS), #6 of 1879 (hit the CONUS), and Judith of 1966 (dissipated).

[La Sirena]

Wow! Insane naked swirl what a year lol. This just might get further westward

Well, wasn't this the Euro's belief initially that it would remain weak and travel further west at a slower pace before its NNW turn?

[wxman57]

The slightly south of west (still moving west) motion has been predicted for days. I don't see any increasing risk to Florida due to the current wind shear. Once the shear lets off over the next day or two it should blow up to a strong hurricane.

[chaser1]

Here are many analogs of Matthew. These are most of, if not all, TC's that on record existed at 15N or further south while at least at some points between 50W and 60W at some time 9/25-10/31. What did they do as regards the CONUS? (R = recurve; D = dissipate; S = moved inland south of the CONUS; H = hit on CONUS; ** = closest analogs based on progged track)


1) #8 of 1889: R http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

2) #7 of 1892: S http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

3) #6 of 1894: R http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

4) #5 of 1895: R (just missed SE FL) http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

5) #6 of 1896: R http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

6) #9 of 1898: R ((just missed SE FL) http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

7)#11 of 1901: R http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

8) #13 of 1916: R http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

9)#14 of 1932***: R http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

10)#9 of 1943: R http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

11)#11 of 1944: R http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

12) Hazel of 1954***: H on NC http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

13) Daisy of 1962: R http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

14) Flora of 1963: R http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

15)Edith of 1967: R http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

16)Gertrude of 1974: D http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

17)Sebastian of 1995:D http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

18) Jose of 1999: R http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

19) Joyce of 2000: D http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

20) Iris of 2001: S http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

21) Jerry of 2001: D http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

22) Tomas of 2010***:R http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif


Tally: 22 storms, 15 recurves, 4 dissipations, 2 hit south of the CONUS, and only 1 CONUS hit (Hazel). Closest analogs per track progs: 1932, 1954, 2010


So, climo is obviously not on the side of a CONUS hit (only 1 hit out of 22 analog storms or 5% of the analogs) though that, of course, doesn't mean there's no chance for that. Actually, I feel that the chance for a CONUS hit is far greater than 5%. I think it is currently more like 33% based on modeled close calls to especially the NC to NE corridor and because one of the three closest analogs (1932, 1954, 2010) did hit the CONUS. Many of the climo tracks can immediately be disqualified due to them being so different right from the start.

Good stuff Larry! Though, I'd be a bit more curious what the results would be based on a storm "existing" (rather than point of genesis) at or south of 15N and between 70-75W, given this to be a likely account of where Matthew will be in the near future. I have to assume the percentage of Conus landfall would be over 15%. If so, then I suppose the assumption would then already paint Matthew as an outlier storm given that most others seemingly recurved whereas Matthew is likely to at least reach 70 west at a pretty low latitude.

[SFLcane]

57 you see any chance TS force winds reach SFL?

[wxman57]

57 you see any chance TS force winds reach SFL?

That can't be ruled out, but it's not something I'd forecast to happen.

[centuryv58]

57 you see any chance TS force winds reach SFL?

That can't be ruled out, but it's not something I'd forecast to happen.

Better check your local Accuweather forecast too. Yesterday they had TS winds + all along SE Fl coast. Maybe that got corrected today.

[centuryv58]

57 you see any chance TS force winds reach SFL?

That can't be ruled out, but it's not something I'd forecast to happen.

Better check your local Accuweather forecast too. Yesterday they had TS winds + all along SE Fl coast. Maybe that got corrected today.

PS. they are still there on the forecast (TS winds)--for whatever reason...

[DESTRUCTION5]

That can't be ruled out, but it's not something I'd forecast to happen.

Better check your local Accuweather forecast too. Yesterday they had TS winds + all along SE Fl coast. Maybe that got corrected today.

PS. they are still there on the forecast (TS winds)--for whatever reason...

Trough interaction..GFS showing negative tilt in 06z. Will be breezy to say the least.

[centuryv58]

Better check your local Accuweather forecast too. Yesterday they had TS winds + all along SE Fl coast. Maybe that got corrected today.

PS. they are still there on the forecast (TS winds)--for whatever reason...

Trough interaction..GFS showing negative tilt in 06z. Will be breezy to say the least.

But gusts to 78+ mph?? One helluva tilt!

[1900hurricane]

Anyone got any guesses on contribution to ACE? If the GFS is right, it will be up near the NE in the 10-11 day range. That should account for plenty. If the ECMWF timing is right, it could be 40+, particularly if it hangs around for 5 or more days as a major. Hell, it could end up in the Top few ACE storms of the last 10 years. In any event, it appears that Matthew and whatever comes after it should put us at least up near the 100 mark if not possibly higher than that. It didn't always look that way early as many members were downplaying this season on a daily basis.

I'd personally guess around 25*10^4 kt^2 if it manages to spend a combined few days as a major hurricane on either side of the Greater Antilles.