ATL: COLIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

I'm thinking, regarding the tornadoes, the SPC should flag that area up for Tuesday...but they tend to often be conservative for tropical-based tornado threats.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Looks like low pressure is developing here

If you watch the visible loop provided below.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... olor=black

[AdamFirst]

I'm thinking, regarding the tornadoes, the SPC should flag that area up for Tuesday...but they tend to often be conservative for tropical-based tornado threats.

They made note of it for Day 3 (Monday) but nothing on Tuesday

...FL PANHANDLE AND NRN FL...
A WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MAY EVENTUALLY AFFECT THE NERN GULF OF
MEXICO INCLUDING PARTS OF FL. IF THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS...HEAVY RAIN
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT BUT SOME WIND OR WEAK TOR THREAT COULD
EXIST GIVEN EXPECTED STRONG WINDS IN THE LOW-LEVELS. HOWEVER...SOME
MODELS ALSO INDICATE EXTREME MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER OF FL
WHICH WOULD REDUCE DEWPOINTS. AT THIS TIME...LOW PREDICTABILITY WILL
CURRENTLY PRECLUDE A MARGINAL RISK.

[Alyono]

EC has a strung out low that reforms over SE Georgia at 12Z Tuesday

[tarheelprogrammer]

EC has a strung out low that reforms over SE Georgia at 12Z Tuesday

Yes, way more disorganized than before.

[Frank2]

More like a frontal low. Too much shear, but later runs will define how much rain we could get...

[Alyono]

some good banding is starting to form. This is well on its way

[tailgater]

Levi Cowan just posted a new vid on his Twitter feed...on point as usual.

Yes, the guy is extremely intelligent and knows his stuff. Everyone should give it a watch.

What I like, as a long time hurricane watcher, is his simple explanations and the way he doesn't over hype or underplay the conditions he expects.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track and also surface plot with observations.

Location: 17.5°N 87.3°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1010 mb
Radius of Circulation: 250 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 120 NM

[Dean4Storms]

12z NAM and 12z ECM not very much apart, how often do you see that?

[Alyono]

It is in the process of reforming to the northeast

[cycloneye]

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 23m23 minutes ago

Getting that "look" in the NW Caribbean w/the low & distant curved bands- tomorrow should be interesting!

[gatorcane]

Agreed this invest has "the look" it is on its way to being a named system. Saved loop showing increasing convection on NE side and some banding:

[tolakram]

live loop, speed it up to see what appears to be the slow formation of a LLC.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=19&lon=-84&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=black

[gatorcane]

Look at the pressure drop at this buoy off to the NE of the broad low while winds are on the increase:

[gatorcane]

It is in the process of reforming to the northeast

How far northeast? I see rotation where I drew the yellow circle but it looks to be just at the mid-levels?

[tarheelprogrammer]

It is in the process of reforming to the northeast

I agree I do not think the center is forming where they have it currently. I could be wrong and they are the ones to trust in this situation. Just looks like more turning in the clouds to the northeast of where they currently have it marked at. Means less time over land if true.

[rolltide]

It is in the process of reforming to the northeast

Don't know how something can reform when nothing was formed to begin with.

[gatorcane]

live loop, speed it up to see what appears to be the slow formation of a LLC.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=19&lon=-84&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=black

Are talking about the area approaching Cancun? I wonder if that is just an eddy or the LLC trying to form?

[tarheelprogrammer]

live loop, speed it up to see what appears to be the slow formation of a LLC.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=19&lon=-84&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=black

Are talking about the area approaching Cancun?

Yes 86W and 19N. Around there I believe.