ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Gustywind]

Orange alert have been activated this morning AT 447AM by Meteo-France Guadeloupe due to the arrival of 99L... and bad weather conditions should spread on us till Thursday morning.
Very strong showers on the whole island of Guadeloupe are expected. Thus, given Meteo-France this very active twave has a huge potential to be a TD.
Meteo-France reported 100 millimeters at la Désirade yesterday night, and 40 millimeters at le Moule.

Gustywind

[Blown Away]

Very Interesting and likely the current thinking from NHC... 06z TAFB has 99L in Central Bahamas in 72 Hours with projected NW track after...

[Gustywind]

Orange alert have been activated this morning AT 447AM by Meteo-France Guadeloupe due to the arrival of 99L... and bad weather conditions should spread on us till Thursday morning.
Very strong showers on the whole island of Guadeloupe are expected. Thus, given Meteo-France this very active twave has a huge potential to be a TD.
Meteo-France reported 100 millimeters at la Désirade yesterday night, and 40 millimeters at le Moule.

Gustywind

http://www.meteofrance.gp/integration/s ... eloupe.pdf ( link french version)

[CFLHurricane]

I'm still giving this the side eye, but I think it's very likely this will get shredded. I'm just not seeing the northwestward movement predicted in the models.

Maybe it will as it strengthens but it has to do that soon...

[TheStormExpert]

Going very close or over Hispaniola is a legit possibility.

 https://twitter.com/jimcantore/status/768380488037916673

[Blown Away]

I'm still giving this the side eye, but I think it's very likely this will get shredded. I'm just not seeing the northwestward movement predicted in the models.

Maybe it will as it strengthens but it has to do that soon...

I agree with you, does not look like 99L is gaining much latitude... TAFB confident 99L will be comfortably NW of PR in 24 hours...

[SoupBone]

I'm still giving this the side eye, but I think it's very likely this will get shredded. I'm just not seeing the northwestward movement predicted in the models.

Maybe it will as it strengthens but it has to do that soon...

I agree with you, does not look like 99L is gaining much latitude... TAFB confident 99L will be comfortably NW of PR in 24 hours...

Still, it looks like it would have to go W to hit Hispaniola.

Edit: I stand corrected. No morning coffee yet.

[Nimbus]

I've been -removed- for a track with land interaction for about a week now.
Weak tropical systems often make that NW jump north of the islands though so we will have to wait and see if that verifies.

Other than land interaction there might not be much to inhibit development.
Forecast ridge is moving east and may bridge out all the way to that ULL currently near ~-50W.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrwv.html

[USTropics]

First visible image of the day:

[CourierPR]

Very healthy looking in that visible.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/768400017015144449

[Blown Away]

Estimating @17N/62.8W at 12z...

[bob rulz]

Is there anything that would really preclude this from being named at the next update? It seems to have gotten its act together VERY quickly. I was always skeptical of how low the NHC put this wave's chances of forming.

Also, if this hits Hispaniola, it could certainly disrupt it, but it's not fatal. 1) It could easily re-organize before reaching the States, it would just have less time to organize and 2) let's not forget how destructive even minimal tropical storms can be to Hispaniola (although Haiti moreso than the Dominican Republic).

[NDG]

Estimating @17N/62.8W at 12z...

I was about to post those coordinates or or close to it, I say 17.5N & 62.5W, still a bit elongated. MLC lagging behind near Guadeloupe.
Visible satellite loop shows that 99L is closed off, west to east moving low clouds SE of P.R.

[hurrtracker79]

 https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/768404293397405696

[MGC]

99L looks to have gotten a bit better organized overnight. Hopefully this passes over Hispaniola and gets shredded. Only question is if the circulation has become better defined since yesterdays recon mission. Should find out later today......MGC

[Weatherboy1]

I told myself I was going to actually sleep rather than check models - and wait to see what 99 looked like in the morning. Based on everything I'm seeing, especially the first few visible images, I fully expect this system to get designated at 11 am if not sooner. I suppose the NHC could wait for recon. But it sure looks like a TD to me

[NotoSans]

00Z Euro deterministic run brings 99L north of 18N at 12Z, but the center seems to be near 17.5N at the moment. This may be tracking south of what the model guidance predicted.

[msbee]

Orange alert have been activated this morning AT 447AM by Meteo-France Guadeloupe due to the arrival of 99L... and bad weather conditions should spread on us till Thursday morning.
Very strong showers on the whole island of Guadeloupe are expected. Thus, given Meteo-France this very active twave has a huge potential to be a TD.
Meteo-France reported 100 millimeters at la Désirade yesterday night, and 40 millimeters at le Moule.

Gustywind

Gusty, not much action up here in St Maarten. it is cloudy and grey with some brief rain showers but nothing significant. We are under a flash flood advisory. Schools were cancelled just in case.
Stay safe down there in Guadeloupe.

weather at Juliana Airport reported 25 minutes ago:

11:00 UTC Wind 10 kt from the East Temperature 28°C Humidity 84% Pressure 1011hPa Visibility 10 km or more Few clouds at a height of 900 ft
Few clouds at a height of 1500 ft, Towering cumulus. showers in vicinity

[tolakram]

I still don't see any reports of west winds. These invests will fool ya, don't buy into a good looking MLC.

Just getting in range of the better visible loop.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=19&lon=-61&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=12&mapcolor=black