ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Vdogg
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#10441 Postby Vdogg » Fri Oct 07, 2016 5:13 pm

For those in Hampton Roads and North Carolina.

https://www.facebook.com/WxSynopsis/pos ... 3757288196

****SIGNIFICANT NORTH AND WEST SHIFT IN MATTHEW'S TRACK EXPECTED. EURO/CMC/GFS/NAM ALONG WITH OTHER MODELS, NOW SHOWING THIS SHIFT****

Matthew is a strong Category 2 hurricane aiming for GA and SC tonight. Saturday into early Sunday morning, Matthew will be tracking along the SC and NC coast, now tracking farther west along the coast and farther north, into the Outer Banks. What this shift does is increases the threat inland for rain/wind. Matthew's outter bands will now be placed over VA and NC, interacting with an approaching cold front. The combination of the cold front and Matthew's bands will increase the rain threat, now a widespread 3-6in+ threat for Central VA and NC, with isolated pockets of higher totals. Coastal areas and tidewater regions of VA and NC will receive 12in+. Widespread wind threat inland, gust in the 35-40mph range but along and east of I-95 40-60mph winds, along the coast 60-70mph+ winds. Wind and rain threat will start late friday night, peak Saturday and last into Sunday morning. NWS offices now issuing advisories/watches/warnings for this threat across the region. Please monitor forecast from your local NWS office and heed the warnings. I will have updates later so please check back in

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#10442 Postby pgoss11 » Fri Oct 07, 2016 5:14 pm

Raebie wrote:SC and GA folks be safe...and let us know how you're doing. NC is watching closely.

I will try to keep you posted as long as I can here in Charleston. Outer rain bands and winds picking up. Worried about tornadic cells too.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#10443 Postby hurricaneCW » Fri Oct 07, 2016 5:17 pm

Models are trending back towards more trough interaction which would likely send the storm further N/W placing NC/VA at risk for significant impacts from flooding/winds/surge. It would also make it far less likely that Matthew would loop around. Instead he might head mostly ENE OTS.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#10444 Postby psyclone » Fri Oct 07, 2016 5:17 pm

pgoss11 wrote:
Raebie wrote:SC and GA folks be safe...and let us know how you're doing. NC is watching closely.

I will try to keep you posted as long as I can here in Charleston. Outer rain bands and winds picking up. Worried about tornadic cells too.

you guys are definitely in the hot zone now. Hoping for the best
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#10445 Postby bcargile » Fri Oct 07, 2016 5:20 pm

Vdogg wrote:For those in Hampton Roads and North Carolina.

https://www.facebook.com/WxSynopsis/pos ... 3757288196

****SIGNIFICANT NORTH AND WEST SHIFT IN MATTHEW'S TRACK EXPECTED. EURO/CMC/GFS/NAM ALONG WITH OTHER MODELS, NOW SHOWING THIS SHIFT****

Matthew is a strong Category 2 hurricane aiming for GA and SC tonight. Saturday into early Sunday morning, Matthew will be tracking along the SC and NC coast, now tracking farther west along the coast and farther north, into the Outer Banks. What this shift does is increases the threat inland for rain/wind. Matthew's outter bands will now be placed over VA and NC, interacting with an approaching cold front. The combination of the cold front and Matthew's bands will increase the rain threat, now a widespread 3-6in+ threat for Central VA and NC, with isolated pockets of higher totals. Coastal areas and tidewater regions of VA and NC will receive 12in+. Widespread wind threat inland, gust in the 35-40mph range but along and east of I-95 40-60mph winds, along the coast 60-70mph+ winds. Wind and rain threat will start late friday night, peak Saturday and last into Sunday morning. NWS offices now issuing advisories/watches/warnings for this threat across the region. Please monitor forecast from your local NWS office and heed the warnings. I will have updates later so please check back in

Image


I'm not understanding the statement here. Are you saying an additional shift after the 5 pm published track? Coming ashore before turning eastward?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#10446 Postby Okibeach » Fri Oct 07, 2016 5:23 pm

KBBOCA wrote:Anyone else thinking that once again (as in Floyd, or Irene, for instance) inland flooding might be the story of this storm (for the US at least)?

Here are projected rain totals in the Carolinas... and Eastern NC is already saturated.

 https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/784493315047776256




This is a Huge concern here. We have been completely saturated for the last month. We will probably exceed the all time record for the past 40 days of precipitation. This would eclipse the flooding of Floyd if it does happen. They are doing all they can to get the message out about the potential for life threatening flooding.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#10447 Postby tgenius » Fri Oct 07, 2016 5:24 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
tgenius wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:Se florida more in the cone than we ever were a few days ago...October is prime time for florida

Which cone? Matthew when he comes back??

Yes..look at the nhc track for matthew

But don't think any models have him being anything but a depression by the time he's around us again right?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#10448 Postby Vdogg » Fri Oct 07, 2016 5:26 pm

bcargile wrote:
Vdogg wrote:For those in Hampton Roads and North Carolina.

https://www.facebook.com/WxSynopsis/pos ... 3757288196

****SIGNIFICANT NORTH AND WEST SHIFT IN MATTHEW'S TRACK EXPECTED. EURO/CMC/GFS/NAM ALONG WITH OTHER MODELS, NOW SHOWING THIS SHIFT****

Matthew is a strong Category 2 hurricane aiming for GA and SC tonight. Saturday into early Sunday morning, Matthew will be tracking along the SC and NC coast, now tracking farther west along the coast and farther north, into the Outer Banks. What this shift does is increases the threat inland for rain/wind. Matthew's outter bands will now be placed over VA and NC, interacting with an approaching cold front. The combination of the cold front and Matthew's bands will increase the rain threat, now a widespread 3-6in+ threat for Central VA and NC, with isolated pockets of higher totals. Coastal areas and tidewater regions of VA and NC will receive 12in+. Widespread wind threat inland, gust in the 35-40mph range but along and east of I-95 40-60mph winds, along the coast 60-70mph+ winds. Wind and rain threat will start late friday night, peak Saturday and last into Sunday morning. NWS offices now issuing advisories/watches/warnings for this threat across the region. Please monitor forecast from your local NWS office and heed the warnings. I will have updates later so please check back in

Image


I'm not understanding the statement here. Are you saying an additional shift after the 5 pm published track? Coming ashore before turning eastward?


I'm not saying it, the met is saying it. Perhaps at the 11pm update but more than likely the 5am. NHC usually likes to wait for the euro to run again to verify trend. 18z gfs doesn't run in time to affect 5pm update. Also allows for a chance to check ensemble runs.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#10449 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Oct 07, 2016 5:27 pm

Blown Away wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:Se florida more in the cone than we ever were a few days ago...October is prime time for florida


I'm so tired of cleaning up and no power I just won't accept emotionally Matt looping back... Crazy, obviously a shell of his current self at that time... :double:
icmc has it getting west then strengthning and comink back east
.that is way out in time..lets see where it is in 5 days
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#10450 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Oct 07, 2016 5:28 pm

tgenius wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
tgenius wrote:Which cone? Matthew when he comes back??

Yes..look at the nhc track for matthew

But don't think any models have him being anything but a depression by the time he's around us again right?

Correct..big error in 5 days..could be nothing
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#10451 Postby Alyono » Fri Oct 07, 2016 5:33 pm

seems like the aircraft has an allergy to flying through the northeast eyewall

oops, I see there are 2 planes
Last edited by Alyono on Fri Oct 07, 2016 5:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#10452 Postby NDG » Fri Oct 07, 2016 5:34 pm

Storm surge is the most devastating damaging effects of a major hurricane, by Matthew not making landfall staying just a few miles offshore brought a wall of a storm surge very far north with it to areas that probably had never experienced such a storm surge before like the Daytona Beach area to St Augustine to Jacksonville. This is as bad if not worst than if it had made landfall as originally thought over east central FL.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#10453 Postby Pughetime12 » Fri Oct 07, 2016 5:34 pm

Raebie wrote:SC and GA folks be safe...and let us know how you're doing. NC is watching closely.


Lots of rain, probably around 30 mph gusts in Mt. Pleasant, SC right now for me.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#10454 Postby Vdogg » Fri Oct 07, 2016 5:37 pm

18z gfs 72 hour rainfall totals

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#10455 Postby NDG » Fri Oct 07, 2016 5:37 pm

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#10456 Postby weatherSnoop » Fri Oct 07, 2016 5:39 pm

My sister in Ponte Vedra Beach is safe, though she has no clue what has happened to her home. Next up, my other sister: Also very safe, and hopefully having too much fun to worry about her home on Skidaway Island in Savannah. I still cannot speculate about 5-10 days down the road. Thank you to all Storm2k personnel for allowing me access to such real time information.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#10457 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Oct 07, 2016 5:42 pm

psyclone wrote:
pgoss11 wrote:
Raebie wrote:SC and GA folks be safe...and let us know how you're doing. NC is watching closely.

I will try to keep you posted as long as I can here in Charleston. Outer rain bands and winds picking up. Worried about tornadic cells too.

you guys are definitely in the hot zone now. Hoping for the best



Yes praying for all across Georgia and the Carolinas.. Ple as e be safe!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#10458 Postby NDG » Fri Oct 07, 2016 5:46 pm

A little old but just in case it was not posted.

 https://twitter.com/wjxt4/status/784468795322732545


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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#10459 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Oct 07, 2016 5:49 pm

Alonyo.

Mr MU is on CNN talking storm surge.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#10460 Postby La Sirena » Fri Oct 07, 2016 5:52 pm

jasons wrote:I was just thinking...too bad Pat Prokop retired just last year. He was one of the more level-headed TV mets I've had the pleasure of seeing over the years. Best of luck to those along the GA/SC coasts. It's gonna be a long night ahead.

We loved Pat when we lived on Tybee. Great met. Those folks who stayed on Tybee are all friends and I know they're underestimating what's going to happen.
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