ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion

[wflamholtz]

Earl is indeed slowing down, but I don't think it won't be able to move too far north because ridging is strong to the north. However, I think a rapid intensification is imminent

How strong is the ridge? any one have links to it ?

what is making him slow down? and thank you

The trade winds slow down where he is now, that does two things, it causes general lower-level convergence in that area, and it causes the LLC to become more aligned with the MLC

[Nimbus]

CDO bursts aren't moving west very fast, we better hope the LLC runs out the west side one more time before it slows down..
Sunset frames seemed to show the low inflow feeder clouds moving west a little slower ~18 mph.
Surface radar may only show the upper level structures.

Don't know what they got from Recon altitude?

[wflamholtz]

CDO bursts aren't moving west very fast, we better hope the LLC runs out the west side one more time before it slows down..
Sunset frames seemed to show the low inflow feeder clouds moving west a little slower ~18 mph.
Surface radar may only show the upper level structures.

Don't know what they got from Recon altitude?

The LLC looks to be slowing down at this point, and deepening of the low tells me that this thing has consolidated until landfall

[whatacane]

How strong is the ridge? any one have links to it ?

what is making him slow down? and thank you

The trade winds slow down where he is now, that does two things, it causes general lower-level convergence in that area, and it causes the LLC to become more aligned with the MLC

Thank You wflamholtz.

[whatacane]

what is making him slow down? and thank you

The trade winds slow down where he is now, that does two things, it causes general lower-level convergence in that area, and it causes the LLC to become more aligned with the MLC

Thank You wflamholtz.

The big uul in the alantic is lifting . is that what steers it?

[MGC]

Looks like Earl is getting its act together this evening. Much more impressive satellite presentation the past several hours than compared to this morning. Western Caribbean working its magic......MGC

[wflamholtz]

The trade winds slow down where he is now, that does two things, it causes general lower-level convergence in that area, and it causes the LLC to become more aligned with the MLC

Thank You wflamholtz.

The big uul in the alantic is lifting . is that what steers it?

The UUL in the ATL is way too far to influence this particular storm, it will be stuck on the south side of the ridge that's centered over the gulf coast

[Nimbus]

THE AF plane just turned around any word if it was a malfunction again

The sweet spot for fuel efficiency in a C130 is 30,000 feet.
Hammy said they got some time interpolated radar imagery of the core from that altitude.
My guess is a slowdown to 18 mph for the LLC NHC will post the actual.

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like Earl is headed in the direction of lighter more favorable wind shear, though wind shear at the moment isn't that bad.

This along with warm sst's, and slower foward motion should result in even more intensification at maybe even a faster rate. This should have no problem attaining hurricane status!

[wflamholtz]

Looks like Earl is headed in the direction of lighter more favorable wind shear, though wind shear at the moment isn't that bad.

This along with warm sst's, and slower foward motion should result in even more intensification at maybe even a faster rate. This should have no problem attaining hurricane status!

http://i67.tinypic.com/28bqmoj.jpg

http://i67.tinypic.com/23rpfd1.jpg

The tut feature to the north of it will actually serve as a nice outflow channel for this thing too.

[Aric Dunn]

60mph now...

its probably higher than that..

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/760624007796420608

[USTropics]

Good pulse of convection over the LLC, let's see if it can sustain it:

[wxman57]

How strong is the ridge? any one have links to it ?

Very strong. It may not be able to track far enough north to make it into the Bay of Campeche. No chance of it turning northward into the Gulf.

[Hammy]

Still seems to be a bit of shear--the upper high is over Central America as per CIMSS and the MLC is still off to the east. I'm honestly surprised it strengthened as much as it did, but it still doesn't seem entirely stacked at the moment.

[Yellow Evan]

Nice convection burst, but there still appears to be moderate wind shear. Still, if an inner core becomes established overnight, Earl will likely become a hurricane, possibly a powerful one, before landfall.

[wflamholtz]

Still seems to be a bit of shear--the upper high is over Central America as per CIMSS and the MLC is still off to the east. I'm honestly surprised it strengthened as much as it did, but it still doesn't seem entirely stacked at the moment.

That's an upper-level high over Central America

[Yellow Evan]

02/2345 UTC 16.8N 81.2W T3.5/3.5 EARL -- Atlantic

[stormwise]

Agree with NDG this has been a TS for quite awhile ,well at least from 8/1 @0600Z.

[JaxGator]

From Dvorak:

- CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 AUG 2016 Time : 234500 UTC
Lat : 16:26:22 N Lon : 82:09:12 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 / 996.9mb/ 49.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.2 3.2 4.2

I'm still new at analyzing the last part.