ATL: HERMINE - Models

[Hammy]

Euro shows basically nothing but a wrinkle through 168 hours. When there is already a disturbance there and it still shows no development, its usually what ends up playing out. The problem is that the low center (whatever elongated center there is) is well to the east of the convective activity, yet the model input of all other models (except the Euro) seem to initialize it closer to the convection as per BT.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro run has 99L very weak and moving across Puerto Rico.

[Kingarabian]

But one thing that Euro has now come in line with the GFS is the steering. Strong weakness to recurve a weak disturbance.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Euro shows basically nothing but a wrinkle through 168 hours. When there is already a disturbance there and it still shows no development, its usually what ends up playing out. The problem is that the low center (whatever elongated center there is) is well to the east of the convective activity, yet the model input of all other models (except the Euro) seem to initialize it closer to the convection as per BT.

When one model is different from literally every other one, it usually ends up wrong. There is no reason 99L should not gradually organize as it moves farther west.

[Kingarabian]

Euro shows basically nothing but a wrinkle through 168 hours. When there is already a disturbance there and it still shows no development, its usually what ends up playing out. The problem is that the low center (whatever elongated center there is) is well to the east of the convective activity, yet the model input of all other models (except the Euro) seem to initialize it closer to the convection as per BT.

When one model is different from literally every other one, it usually ends up wrong. There is no reason 99L should not gradually organize as it moves farther west.

Joaquin 2015 begs to differ.

[Frank2]

Big change in GFS from 12 hrs ago, showing system moving into a weakness, the strong ridge of early summer now replaced by a more Fall-like pattern of ridge/trough/ridge...

[Florida1118]

Euro shows basically nothing but a wrinkle through 168 hours. When there is already a disturbance there and it still shows no development, its usually what ends up playing out. The problem is that the low center (whatever elongated center there is) is well to the east of the convective activity, yet the model input of all other models (except the Euro) seem to initialize it closer to the convection as per BT.

When one model is different from literally every other one, it usually ends up wrong. There is no reason 99L should not gradually organize as it moves farther west.

Joaquin 2015 begs to differ.

Hence the "usually". We've got a spread from this being nothing more than a tropical wave, to it being a full blown Category 5. Obviously this is a very challenging and complex set up, so I don't think putting weight on any model right now makes sense, whether it be the Euro showing nothing, or the GFS showing a full blown major. That being said; GFS has the most support, and the NHC seems to be splitting the difference. While a hurricane remains to be seen, the next 72 hours will reveal which one will be correct in my opinion. If this isn't even close to a formed system by then, and the Euro and GFS haven't budged on their solutions, then I'd say the GFS will probably be incorrect (as it shows a system formed within that time). Very interesting developments for sure.

[abajan]

First proper inner nest HWRF run:

http://i.imgur.com/R3bbJiK.jpg

Assuming a WNW or NW motion, a hurricane that powerful, would cause problems for Barbados, to put it mildly. Even if it went straight W from there, it would still be a problem, because we would be on the strong side.

[SFLcane]

Westward shift in some of the GFS ensembles overnight 00z waiting on morning 06z. Lots of time to watch here.

[tolakram]

The Euro brings weak vorticity right over Hispaniola. This may be why it shows no development, even late in the run.

[TheStormExpert]

Big westward shift in 06z GFS so far.

[Florida1118]

Big westward shift in 06z GFS so far.

Also of note, no sign of any other systems besides 99L...also a significant change. Kills Fiona and doesn't develop the wave moving off Africa.

[TheStormExpert]

Down to 904mb on 06z GFS @ 240hrs. before resolution drop.

[JtSmarts]

That's not a comforting sight at all. Good that we still have a long way to go. Looks like a close call with the Outer Banks this run, definitely the closest yet to the continental US.

[TheStormExpert]

Skirts up just offshore the East Coast this run.

[Florida1118]

One big mama raking the East Coast this run.

[TheStormExpert]

Full 06z GFS run of 99L.

[JtSmarts]

Depending on how quick this develops, our island friends could have an issue on their hands.

[Kazmit]

Full 06z GFS run of 99L.

[img__]http://i.giphy.com/l3vRkQPCoe7ANOHzq.gif[/img]

Reminds me a bit of Earl 2010. Except stronger, and closer to the East Coast.

[NDG]

I would like to see the ECMWF jump on board with developing 99L before sounding the alarm for the Islands, although I do see that the ECMWF has become fairly inconsistent the past few days.